NFL Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions: Lions vs. Cowboys (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that - as of writing on Wednesday - I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update. Here is my pick for Lions vs. Cowboys.
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
NFL Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions: Lions vs. Cowboys
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Check out our Lions at Cowboys matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium
- TV: CBS
Lions at Cowboys: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Cowboys -7
- Over/Under: 49
- Moneyline: Cowboys -315, Lions +265
Lions at Cowboys: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19
- Spread: Lions - 52% bets, 85% money
- Over/Under: Under - 43% bets, 64% money
- Moneyline: Lions - 12% bets, 46% money
Lions at Cowboys: Injuries
Lions: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Chris Board | LB | Knee | DNP |
| D.J. Chark | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| Taylor Decker | OT | Personal | DNP |
| Charles Harris | DE | Groin | DNP |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | SAF | Ankle | DNP |
| Matt Nelson | OT | Calf | DNP |
| Bobby Price | DB | Knee | DNP |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | Knee | DNP |
| John Cominsky | DE | Wrist | LP |
| Will Harris | DB | Hip | LP |
| Frank Ragnow | C | Foot | LP |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | Ankle/Shoulder | LP |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Ankle | FP |
Lions: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Quintez Cephus | WR | IR |
| Tommy Kraemer | G | IR |
| Levi Onwuzurike | DL | IR |
| Halapoulivaati Vaitai | G | IR |
| Tracy Walker III | S | IR |
| Jameson Williams | WR | IR-NFI |
| Jason Cabinda | FB | PUP |
| Jerry Jacobs | CB | PUP |
| Romeo Okwara | DL | PUP |
| Josh Paschal | DL | PUP |
Cowboys: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | Hip | LP |
| Quinton Bohanna | DT | Shoulder | FP |
| Neville Gallimore | DT | Wrist | FP |
| Devin Harper | LB | Achilles | FP |
| Jason Peters | OT | Chest | FP |
| Dak Prescott | QB | Right Thumb | FP |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | Knee | FP |
Cowboys: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tarell Basham | DE | IR |
| Devante Bond | LB | IR |
| Ian Bunting | TE | IR |
| Simi Fehoko | WR | IR |
| Damone Clark | LB | IR-NFI |
Lions at Cowboys: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Lions Trends
- 2022 Lions: 3-2 ATS (16.1% ROI)
- HC Dan Campbell: 14-7 ATS (27.5% ROI) as underdog
- HC Dan Campbell: 5-1 ATS (58.8% ROI) vs. teams with winning records at time of game
Cowboys Trends
- 2022 Cowboys: 4-2 ATS (27.8% ROI)
- QB Dak Prescott: 7-14-1 ATS (27.8% ROI for faders) as home favorite outside division
Lions at Cowboys: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Lions Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.012 | 16 | -0.091 | 5 | -11 |
| Total SR | 41.3% | 26 | 40.3% | 4 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | 7.6% | 9 | -16.7% | 6 | -3 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.001 | 19 | -0.091 | 6 | -13 |
| Dropback SR | 42.4% | 24 | 42.0% | 6 | -18 |
| Pass DVOA | 12.3% | 15 | -24.6% | 3 | -12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 3.3% | 1 | 10.4% | 1 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | -0.090 | 12 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 39.7% | 22 | 37.5% | 8 | -14 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.3% | 5 | -5.4% | 17 | 12 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.07 | 3 | 4.30 | 13 | 10 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 2 | 4.6 | 3 | 1 |
| Points per Game | 28 | 3 | 16.3 | 3 | 0 |
Cowboys Offense vs. Lions Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.069 | 25 | 0.195 | 32 | 7 |
| Total SR | 41.4% | 25 | 49.9% | 31 | 6 |
| Total DVOA | -0.3% | 17 | 19.7% | 32 | 15 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.089 | 29 | 0.252 | 32 | 3 |
| Dropback SR | 39.9% | 28 | 51.9% | 30 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | 4.0% | 21 | 24.1% | 32 | 11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.8% | 5 | 4.9% | 28 | 23 |
| Rush EPA | -0.043 | 16 | 0.107 | 31 | 15 |
| Rush SR | 43.2% | 9 | 46.6% | 29 | 20 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.2% | 6 | 13.7% | 31 | 25 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.73 | 8 | 4.75 | 25 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 23 | 6.5 | 32 | 9 |
| Points per Game | 18.3 | 23 | 34 | 32 | 9 |
Lions at Cowboys: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jared Goff
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.046 | 23 |
| AY/A | 7.5 | 7 |
| QBR | 57.6 | 11 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.8 | 13 |
Career: Jared Goff
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 4.8
2022: Dak Prescott
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.2 | 11 |
Career: Dak Prescott
- AY/A: 7.8
- QB Elo per Game: 54.4
Key Matchup: Lions Offensive Line vs. Cowboys Defensive Line
Last year I thought the Cowboys defense was fraudulent, living off an unsustainable league-high 26 interceptions while still allowing the 12th-most yards per play (5.5).
But this year, they have proven themselves to be legitimate. They’re not as opportunistic, but they’re better overall, ranking No. 1 in sacks (24), No. 2 in quarterback hits (51) and No. 3 in yards per play (4.6).
With a strong quintet of EDGE rushers — Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler and Sam Williams — the Cowboys can get after the passer.
They rank No. 1 in defensive adjusted sack rate (10.4%).
But in this game they might just meet their match — because the Lions are No. 1 in offensive adjusted sack rate (3.3%).
I personally have the Lions with the No. 1 offensive line in the league. As a staff, the FantasyPros experts have their line ranked No. 3. Either way, the large advantage that the Cowboys defensive line normally has over opposing units isn’t manifest in our unit power rankings.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | DET | 3 | 2 |
And I’d argue that the Lions actually have the edge in this OL-vs.-DL matchup, because the Cowboys can be pushed around a little in the ground game, and the Lions are their best on offense when they’re running the ball. In most key rush metrics, the Lions offense is in the top five, and the Cowboys defense is outside the top 10.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | -0.090 | 12 | 8 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.3% | 5 | -5.4% | 17 | 12 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.07 | 3 | 4.30 | 13 | 10 |
Coming off the bye week, the Lions have had extra time to prepare for the Cowboys pass rush, and they’re healthy: RB D’Andre Swift (ankle, shoulder) practiced limitedly on Wednesday, so he’s likely to play, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) practiced fully, and his presence on the field should prevent the Cowboys from stacking the box against the run.
With their offensive line, the Lions can dominate the ground game and protect QB Jared Goff, who has been effective this year, ranking top-12 in both AY/A (7.5) and QBR (57.6).
And that means the Lions can cover.
Best Line: Lions +7 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Lions +7 (-110)
Personal Projection: Lions +5.5
Limit: Lions +6.5
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