NFL Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions: Ravens vs. Browns (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update. Here is my pick for Ravens vs. Browns.
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
NFL Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions: Ravens vs. Browns
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Check out our Browns at Ravens matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: M&T Bank Field
- TV: CBS
Browns at Ravens: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Ravens -6.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Ravens -275, Browns +230
Browns at Ravens: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19
- Spread: Ravens – 55% bets, 70% money
- Over/Under: Under – 31% bets, 35% money
- Moneyline: Browns – 7% bets, 57% money
Browns at Ravens: Injuries
Browns: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Joel Bitonio | G | Not Injury Related – Rest | DNP |
| Jadeveon Clowney | DE | Ankle | DNP |
| Jack Conklin | OT | Ankle | DNP |
| Amari Cooper | WR | Not Injury Related – Rest | DNP |
| Tony Fields II | LB | Illness | DNP |
| Myles Garrett | DE | Shoulder, Biceps | DNP |
| Joe Haeg | OT | Concussion | DNP |
| David Njoku | TE | Not Injury Related – Rest | DNP |
| Wyatt Teller | G | Calf | DNP |
| Denzel Ward | CB | Concussion | DNP |
| Alex Wright | DE | Quad, Glute | FP |
Browns: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Dawson Deaton | G | IR |
| Jerome Ford | RB | IR |
| Jakeem Grant Sr. | WR | IR |
| Nick Harris | C | IR |
| Jesse James | TE | IR |
| Chris Odom | DE | IR |
| Anthony Walker Jr. | LB | IR |
| Stephen Weatherly | DE | IR |
| Isaiah Weston | WR | IR |
| Chase Winovich | DE | IR |
| Deion Jones | MLB | IR-DFR |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | Susp |
Ravens: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Mark Andrews | TE | Knee | DNP |
| Calais Campbell | DE | Foot | DNP |
| Ben Cleveland | G | Foot | DNP |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | Knee | DNP |
| Devin Duvernay | WR | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Morgan Moses | OT | Heel | DNP |
| Marcus Peters | CB | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Patrick Ricard | FB | Knee | DNP |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | Foot | LP |
| Justin Houston | OLB | Groin | LP |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | Hip | LP |
| Ronnie Stanley | OT | NIR-Rest/Ankle | LP |
| Justice Hill | RB | Hamstring | FP |
Ravens: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Vince Biegel | OLB | IR |
| Kyle Fuller | CB | IR |
| Daelin Hayes | OLB | IR |
| Ja’Wuan James | T | IR |
| Charlie Kolar | TE | IR |
| Steven Means | OLB | IR |
| Michael Pierce | NT | IR |
| Josh Ross | ILB | IR |
| Marcus Williams | S | IR |
| David Ojabo | OLB | IR-NFI |
| Tyus Bowser | OLB | PUP |
| Gus Edwards | RB | PUP |
Browns at Ravens: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Browns Trends
- 2022 Browns: 2-4 ATS (27.2% ROI for faders)
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 2-11 ATS (61.2% ROI for faders) in division
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 0-4 ATS (92.7% ROI for faders) vs. Ravens
Ravens Trends
- 2022 Ravens: 3-3 ATS (-5.4 ROI)
- HC John Harbaugh: 4-0 ATS (92.7% ROI) vs. HC Kevin Stefanski
Browns at Ravens: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Browns Offense vs. Ravens Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.068 | 5 | 0.065 | 27 | 22 |
| Total SR | 44.5% | 14 | 46.7% | 27 | 13 |
| Total DVOA | 10.9% | 8 | 0.5% | 16 | 8 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.041 | 18 | 0.111 | 23 | 5 |
| Dropback SR | 43.5% | 22 | 48.7% | 27 | 5 |
| Pass DVOA | 13.8% | 14 | 0.8% | 10 | -4 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.9% | 6 | 6.4% | 20 | 14 |
| Rush EPA | 0.101 | 1 | -0.036 | 20 | 19 |
| Rush SR | 45.7% | 4 | 42.1% | 18 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 12.8% | 4 | 0.1% | 24 | 20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.85 | 6 | 4.80 | 27 | 21 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 11 | 5.7 | 20 | 9 |
| Points per Game | 24.7 | 7 | 23.5 | 20 | 13 |
Ravens Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.088 | 4 | 0.137 | 31 | 27 |
| Total SR | 46.4% | 10 | 43.9% | 17 | 7 |
| Total DVOA | 17.4% | 3 | 15.6% | 31 | 28 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.101 | 10 | 0.121 | 24 | 14 |
| Dropback SR | 47.9% | 12 | 44.6% | 13 | 1 |
| Pass DVOA | 33.9% | 4 | 17.5% | 27 | 23 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 12 | 6.3% | 21 | 9 |
| Rush EPA | 0.068 | 2 | 0.162 | 32 | 30 |
| Rush SR | 44.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 20 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | 13.7% | 3 | 13.1% | 30 | 27 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.25 | 22 | 5.17 | 31 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 26 |
| Points per Game | 26.3 | 5 | 27.2 | 30 | 25 |
Browns at Ravens: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jacoby Brissett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.075 | 16 |
| AY/A | 5.9 | 28 |
| QBR | 58.2 | 10 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.0 | 27 |
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -33.6
2022: Lamar Jackson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.111 | 6 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 64.1 | 5 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.6 | 5 |
Career: Lamar Jackson
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: 82.1
Key Matchup: Ravens Rush Offense vs. Browns Rush Defense
The Ravens have a top-three run offense and the Browns have a bottom-three run defense.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.068 | 2 | 0.162 | 32 | 30 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.137 | 3 | 0.131 | 30 | 27 |
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Ravens — now with LT Ronnie Stanley healthy — have the eighth-best offensive line, while the Browns have the eighth-worst defensive line.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | CLE | BAL | 8 | -17 |
No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) is uncertain after exiting Week 6 early and missing Wednesday practice, but backup RB Kenyan Drake (10-119-1 rushing) played well in his place last week, and No. 3 Justice Hill (6.6 yards per carry this year) practiced fully yesterday, so he seems likely to return this week.
And of course the Ravens have QB Lamar Jackson, who has a position-high 451 yards rushing this year.
Jackson is the No. 1 quarterback in my Week 7 fantasy rankings. He is one of my favorite Week 7 fantasy plays.
As for the Browns, they’re bad against the run anyway — and they are without EDGEs Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR) and Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR) and LB Anthony Walker (leg, IR) and might be without EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle) and LB Deion Jones (shoulder, IR-DFR).
If a home team can control the clock with the ground game, it has the ability to pile on the points, and I think that’s what the Ravens will do.
Best Line: Ravens -6 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Ravens -6 (-110)
Personal Projection: Ravens -7.25
Limit: Ravens -6.5
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