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NFL Week 7 Composite Power Ratings (2023)

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Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.

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    Week 7 NFL Composite Power Ratings

    • The San Francisco 49ers have maintained the top spot despite their upset loss to the Cleveland Browns. However, the gap between them and the Chiefs shrunk marginally after Kansas City took care of business on Thursday night last week.
    • The Las Vegas Raiders have become one of the more divisive teams in the ratings. Las Vegas currently sits second in the AFC West with wins against a dreadful Broncos team, a regressing Packers team, and a struggling Patriots team.

    Week 7 Matchups

    • The spread difference for this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Jacksonville Jaguars can be easily explained by Trevor Lawrence’s questionable health for the game. These ratings assume teams are at full health, especially at the quarterback position, and Lawrence left Week 6’s game with a leg injury that has given him a “Questionable” tag for the game.
    • The most intriguing matchup of the week for me is the one between the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. The composite ratings suggest that these teams have identical strength on a neutral field, so the spread should really only account for Baltimore having home-field advantage. As noted in the preface of this article, I use a home-field adjustment of 1.5 points when calculating the rating-based spreads, so if you think that is directionally accurate then there appears to be some value on the Lions this week.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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