NFL Week 7 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 7!
Compare first touchdown stats to prop bet odds to help identify the best bets of the week >>
NFL Week 7 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
Odds: +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Giants have been awful against the run this season. They have given up nine rushing TDs and allow 147.5 rushing yards per game. The Commanders have not been dominant on the ground, but they can gash this defense. The Giants allow 5.1 rushing yards per attempt, and Brian Robinson's average is 3.9 yards per carry. Robinson has not scored since Oct. 1 and has not been involved in the offense as much. They get back to running the football against a great matchup this week.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Odds: +500 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Stefon Diggs has been a problem for the Patriots since entering the division. He has scored six touchdowns in six games with the Bills against the Patriots. Diggs is averaging 11 targets per game and has a four-game streak of 100-yard receiving games. He is performing at an elite level and should have success against the banged-up secondary of the Patriots. They are missing multiple starters in the secondary, and several others are questionable. Diggs should have a monster day in Foxborough.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds: +1000 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Buccaneers’ defense has been stingy this season. They only allow 17.6 points per game, while the Falcons allow 20. The total of this game is 37.5, which reflects the low-scoring possibility of this game. The points will likely be limited, so red-zone opportunities should be vital. Chris Godwin has been targeted the most in that area, with seven targets. He has caught three but has yet to find the end zone. He also leads the team in receptions. Baker Mayfield should be looking his way a lot this week.
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Odds: +1200 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Zay Flowers is leading the Ravens in targets per game with eight per game. He is the No. 1 receiver in this offense, but Mark Andrews remains the favorite target near the end zone. Flowers has more red zone targets than Andrews but has only caught one TD compared to three TDs for Andrews. The eight targets in the red zone are promising for Flowers, who just scored his first-career touchdown last week. The Lions are also the best team in the league at defending the run. They allow 64.7 rushing yards per game at an average of 3.3 yards per carry. The Ravens' defense is also a force, so Flowers is a solid option, as he may have the best matchup in the contest.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Chicago Bears
Odds: +550 via Caesars Sportsbook
Jimmy Garoppolo is not playing this week due to a back injury, and Justin Fields is nursing a thumb injury and will likely miss the game. That means Tyson Bagent may start for the Bears, and it will be either Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell for the Raiders. O'Connell started in place of Garoppolo in Week 3, and they lost by seven. Davante Adams was targeted 13 times in that game. He only received nine targets in the two games that followed. Adams voiced his frustrations about the lack of volume this week. Adams was very professional in his explanation and was right. He is one of the best receivers in the league and should be the priority in the game plan. Whoever is behind center should target him early and often against the Bears.
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
Odds: +525 via Caesars Sportsbook
The Colts are not the same team with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and have a tough test against one of the best defenses in the league. Deshaun Watson is also in danger of missing another game, which means P.J. Walker would start. Watson resumed throwing at practice on Thursday, but his status remains unclear. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have been on a committee since Hunt was signed, but Hunt saw an uptick in work after the bye week. Hunt played 37% of snaps, while Ford played 50%. Ford ran 17 times for 84 yards, and Hunt had 12 carries for 47 yards and found the end zone. Given the quarterback situation on both sides, Ford makes the most sense and should still have more opportunity than Hunt.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams
Odds: +650 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The matchup for Cooper Kupp could not get much better. The Steelers have been uncharacteristically bad on defense this season. They give up third-most total yards per game and 245.6 passing yards per game. The Steelers now have to travel across the country to face one of the better offenses in the league. Cooper Kupp returned from injury and immediately returned to all-pro form. He averaged 10.5 targets, 7.5 receptions and 133 yards in his first two games. Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers were hurt last week, so Zach Evans and Royce Freeman will likely share the workload. The matchup and circumstances at running back make Kupp a no-brainer.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Odds: +370 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Kenneth Walker has been a workhorse for the Seahawks. His lowest amount of carries in a game is 12 Week 1, and he has not had fewer than 17 since then. He also averages 2.6 targets per game. The Cardinals' defense has been atrocious when defending the run, allowing 133.3 rushing yards per game. Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are questionable, with Lockett limited and Metcalf not participating in practice. Zach Charbonnet also did not participate on Thursday, so it is understandable why Walker's odds are this low. He’s found pay dirt six times this season and has another chance for a big day.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: +1500 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Rashee Rice could benefit from Justin Watson's wrist injury. Rice is averaging 38% of snaps this season but receives the second-most targets in the offense behind Travis Kelce. His stats are the best of any wideout on the team. He averages 11.7 yards per reception and has caught 21 passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns. He is also second on the team in 20+ yard receptions, behind Watson. Rice should become a deep threat even more with Watson's injury. The Chargers' defense allows 289 passing yards per game, the worst in the league. Kelce is the favorite to score first, but Rice's chances of catching a deep ball this week are as high as ever.
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos
Odds: +700 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Aaron Jones was a limited participant in practice on Thursday but said he is more confident about his availability for Sunday. He has a juicy matchup against the Broncos this week. They allow 172.3 rushing yards per game, which is the most in the league. They allow 5.6 yards per carry and have allowed eight rushing touchdowns. The Packers have not been the best offense but should be able to carve out lanes for Jones to run through.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz's Favorites (2023)
- NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 7)
- Thor Nystrom's Best College Football Week 8 Bets (2023)
- College Football Week 8 Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks (2023)
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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