NFL Week 7 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
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Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Amari Cooper
Odds: +900 via Caesars Sportsbook
Amari Cooper has 12 targets in back-to-back weeks and leads the team with 55, catching 31. He is a target monster in this offense and has a good matchup against the Ravens’ defense, who allow 267.7 passing yards per game and 11 TDs through the air this season. Both teams tend to get out to a quick start, as well. The Browns usually like to run the ball, but they may be running to set up the pass this week. David Njoku and Cooper are the most likely to find pay dirt via the air so ride with the highest target share.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Chris Godwin
Odds: +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Panthers are going with P.J. Walker as their starting quarterback for the second week in a row, and they traded away Christian McCaffrey, so it is hard to believe they will find the end zone first. The Buccaneers are coming off a loss to the Steelers, but their offense did not play horribly. They did not turn the ball over but could not find enough points for the victory. Chris Godwin saw 12 targets in that contest, which led the team by six more than the second-leading target, Leonard Fournette. He has also not caught a TD this season, so he is due to find the end zone.
Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals
Caleb Huntley
Odds: +1600 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Caleb Huntley has received five rushing attempts inside the 10 in the past three weeks, while Tyler Allgeier has received only two. Last week against the 49ers, the Falcons ran for 168 yards, an impressive feat against one of the best defenses in the league (minus Nick Bosa). They converted on nine of 14 third-down attempts and stayed on the right side of the chains. The Bengals have allowed 43 first-quarter points this season and give up 121 rushing yards per game. Atlanta’s side has value in this market, and Huntley should have the best opportunity of finding the end zone.
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb
Odds: +575 via Caesars Sportsbook
Dak Prescott is returning as quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys and should help this team improve in every passing metric. CeeDee Lamb is leading the team in targets by a wide margin. He has 60 targets this season and has hauled in 33. Prescott will likely spread the ball around more than Cooper Rush, but he may look to Lamb early to get things going and gain confidence. The Lions do not present a challenge in Prescott’s return; they rank last in points and total yards allowed. Prescott could not ask for a better matchup in his return game, and Lamb should be the beneficiary.
New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars
James Robinson
Odds: +675 via Caesars Sportsbook
Jacksonville has only allowed one TD and an extra point in the first quarter this season, which is second-best in the league. They are also stout against the run, allowing 3.6 yards per carry and 89.3 rushing yards per game. The Giants want to run the ball, where they rank fourth in rushing yards, but may have trouble doing so. The Jaguars also like to run the football (136.7 rushing yards per game), and the Giants’ defense will allow them room to move. James Robinson and Travis Etienne are receiving about half of the workload, with Robinson getting the goal-line carries and Etienne getting the targets. Robinson has a good chance of finding paydirt this week against a soft matchup.
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders
Robert Tonyan
Odds: +950 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The offense in Green Bay is not looking as formidable as in years past, but they have more points this season than Washington. Washington’s defense tends to get beat through the air, allowing 12.1 yards per completion and 12 passing TDs this season. This matchup presents a perfect opportunity for Aaron Rodgers to turn this offense around. Robert Tonyan received more targets last week when Randall Cobb left with an ankle injury and led the Packers with 12. On his 32 total targets this season, he has caught 27 (84.4%) of them. Based on his target share, his odds are too good to pass up in this situation.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Dontrell Hilliard
Odds: +2000 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Titans are second league-wide, with 42 points scored in the first quarter this season. However, they are bottom five in total points scored, so they tend to get out to a quick start and fade late. The Colts, on the other hand, only have 10 first-quarter points. The Titans are also coming off a bye week, so they have had more time to gameplan around the Colts. Dontrell Hilliard has received four and five targets in his last two games, respectively, and has scored three TDs via the air this season. With Treylon Burks on IR, expect Hilliard to be more involved in the passing attack out of the backfield.
Houston Texans @ Las Vegas Raiders
Davante Adams
Odds: +490 via Caesars Sportsbook
Both teams are coming off their bye week, which was not enough time for Darren Waller to return to practice. He is dealing with a hamstring injury, and Hunter Renfrow missed practice on Thursday due to a hip injury. Davante Adams will surely be Derek Carr’s primary weapon at home against the Texans. Houston is not efficient on offense and gives up yardage on defense. They do not, however, surrender many points to teams. Still, Las Vegas has the best chance of finding the end zone through the air. Few people can guard Adams, and Houston’s defense, with Derek Stingley, will be tested on Sunday.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
Breece Hall
Odds: +700 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Broncos’ defense has been solid against the pass all season, allowing 184.5 passing yards per game and 7.7 yards per completion, which is the lowest in the league. However, their offense is struggling to find points, and the Jets are coming off a 17-point victory at Lambeau Field. The Jets have scored well in the red zone (63.2% TD rate) and are playing well because of Breece Hall. He has found the end zone in his last three games and is getting increased opportunities. Last week, he had 116 yards on 20 rushing attempts, and the week prior, he had 197 total yards. He is a playmaker and can break away against any defense.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers
Ken Walker
Odds: +490 via Caesars Sportsbook
Neither of these defenses is solid against the pass, and they are both bad against the run. It may depend on who receives the ball first, so Seattle offers the best value as the underdog. Kenneth Walker is the play again because he is a hard runner to bring down. He ran 21 times for 97 yards and one TD last week against the Cardinals and should receive just as much volume this week. Do not overthink this game; the Chargers allow 5.6 rushing yards per carry, which is the worst in the league. Walker has a great chance to score first on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle
Odds: +1200 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The 49ers traded away multiple draft picks to get Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers, but it will be hard for him to be active on short notice. Adam Schefter tweeted that he would fly to San Francisco on Friday, and it would be challenging for him to suit up on Sunday. The Chiefs have given up 149 points compared to 89 for the 49ers. The Chiefs have scored the most points this season, but the 49ers have a good shot at scoring first. The Chiefs have allowed a league-leading 15 passing TDs this season, so Kittle is a prime candidate. He has yet to score this season but was tied for second on the team with 10 targets last week.
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