NFL Week 7 Line Movement Analysis (2023)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 7 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| DET | BAL | -3 | -3 | 0 | 42.5 | 43 | 0.5 |
| LV | CHI | 3 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 0 |
| GB | DEN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 44.5 | 45 | 0.5 |
| CLE | IND | 2 | 3 | 1 | 39.5 | 40 | 0.5 |
| LAC | KC | -5.5 | -5.5 | 0 | 50.5 | 48 | -2.5 |
| PIT | LAR | -3 | -3 | 0 | 43 | 43.5 | 0.5 |
| SF | MIN | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 43.5 | 44 | 0.5 |
| BUF | NE | 9 | 9 | 0 | 41.5 | 40 | -1.5 |
| JAX | NO | -3 | -2 | 1 | 39 | 41 | 2 |
| WAS | NYG | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 40.5 | 37.5 | -3 |
| MIA | PHI | -2 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 52 | 52 | 0 |
| ARI | SEA | -8 | -7.5 | 0.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 0 |
| ATL | TB | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 38.5 | 37 | -1.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 7 Spread Movement Analysis
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts: +2.0 → +3.0
QB Deshaun Watson returned to practice on a limited basis for the first time in a few weeks due to a throwing shoulder injury. Regardless of whether Watson starts, the Browns’ defense showed in last week’s game against the 49ers that they can win games for this team. Meanwhile, the Colts officially announced that rookie QB Anthony Richardson will miss the remainder of the year. So it will be Gardner Minshew the rest of the way. This is a tough bounce-back spot for the Colts after a 20-37 blowout loss in Jacksonville.
Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears: +3.0 → +2.5
The Raiders officially ruled out QB Jimmy Garoppolo on Thursday, but it is still surprising the line moved in the Bears’ favor. They have yet to announce whether Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell will get the start. Even so, the Bears are starting undrafted rookie QB Tyson Bagent and are beat up on the offensive line. Nate Davis will be out this week, and rookie right tackle Darnell Wright was downgraded to a DNP on Thursday.
NFL Week 7 Total Movement Analysis
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 50.5 → 48.0
From an offensive perspective, the matchup sounds better on paper than in reality. Last year, these teams were involved in 51 and 57-point total games against each other, but there has been something off the last three weeks for these offenses. The Chiefs are averaging 23 ppg, while the Chargers are at just 20.5. The Chiefs’ defense could also be contributing to the drop in total. They are second in the league in points allowed per game this year (14.7).
Washington Commanders at New York Giants: 40.5 → 37.5
Daniel Jones has not been cleared for contact yet, so it will likely be Tyrod Taylor again this week. While the game was close in Buffalo last week, Taylor and the Giants offense only scored just nine points. This was not far off their season average of 12.4 with Daniel Jones at the helm. The Commanders are coming off a win in Atlanta, but the offense has not been high-scoring so far with QB Sam Howell. That said, both of these defenses rank toward the bottom of the league, so it’ll be interesting to see which side of the ball has the advantage. Based on the low total and movement, it should be the defense.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
- NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 7)
- Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 8 Bets (2023)
- College Football Week 8 Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks (2023)
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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