NFL Week 7 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 7 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| NE | JAX | -5.5 | -5.5 | 0 | 41.5 | 41 | -0.5 |
| MIA | IND | -3.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 43 | 43.5 | 0.5 |
| TEN | BUF | -8.5 | -9 | 0.5 | 42.5 | 41 | -1.5 |
| HOU | GB | -3 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 47 | 47.5 | 0.5 |
| DET | MIN | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 49 | 50.5 | 1.5 |
| CIN | CLE | +4.5 | +5.5 | 1 | 43 | 41.5 | -1.5 |
| PHI | NYG | +3.5 | +3 | -0.5 | 43 | 42.5 | -0.5 |
| SEA | ATL | -3 | -3 | 0 | 49 | 51 | 2 |
| CAR | WSH | -8.5 | -8 | -0.5 | 51 | 51.5 | 0.5 |
| LV | LAR | -3.5 | -6.5 | 3 | 44 | 43.5 | -0.5 |
| KC | SF | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 47 | 47 | 0 |
| NYJ | PIT | -1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 37.5 | 38.5 | 1 |
| BAL | TB | +4.5 | +3.5 | -1 | 50 | 49.5 | -0.5 |
| LAC | AZ | +2.5 | +2.5 | 0 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 7 Spread Movement Analysis
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams: -3.5 ?' -6.5
The Raiders seem to find their way into this column each week, which speaks to how impactful being in Las Vegas at the epicenter of the gambling action in this country can be. Not only is the three-point line movement in the spread tied for the biggest in any point spread for the week, but is also moved from the opening near one key number -3.5 and swung all the way to a second key number (-7) at one point. There is usually a gradual change in point spreads, but this movement was anything but that, as oddsmakers moved from -3.5 to -5.5 in seemingly the blink of an eye. From there is was half-point increments to -7, and only when the line reached a touchdown did Raiders backers finally weigh in and move the number back the other direction to -6.5.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: -1.5 ?' +1.5
Whereas seemingly all the point spread movement in the Raiders-Rams matchup is based off of one-sided betting action, this line movement in the Jets-Steelers matchup has much to do with roster construction. Earlier this week, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams, reuniting him with his old Packers teammate, Aaron Rodgers. Also, starting mid-week the rumors started picking up that Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson was taking first-team reps in practice, and that a switch from Justin Fields to Wilson as starting quarterback for this week seemed imminent. The line actually jumped the fence twice this week, but late-week it has been mostly Jets action driving the number as high as New York -2, before settling back at -1.5 on Thursday afternoon. Those backing the Jets to win and cover on Sunday night are bucking the trend that New York teams (the Jets and Giants) are a combined 4-31 SU in primetime games since 2019.
NFL Week 7 Total Movement Analysis
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: 49 ?' 51
Atlanta is off to its best start (4-2) since 2016 and has averaged 33.3 points per game during a three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, Seattle is off extended rest having last played on Thursday, a game in which it and the 49ers combined for 60 points. Therefore, it is no surprise to see this line have non-stop support for the Over, opening at 49 and making half-point increases until it reached 51. As of this writing, there has not yet been any buyback on the Under. The Falcons have cashed the Over in three straight games, but dating back to last season, games in which Kirk Cousins started had hit nine straight Unders prior to that.
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals: 43.5 ?' 43.5
This total on the second of the two Monday Night Football games is currently the same on Thursday night as its opening number, but that does not tell the whole story. After opening at 43.5, the total steadily declined to 41.5 before Over backers weighed in and drove the number back to a week-long high of 44. There must be sharp action on either side of the total, as Under backers weighed in again at 44 and drove the number back down to 43.5 once again. Those that back the Over are making a contrarian play of sorts, as the Chargers have the NFL’s best scoring defense (13.2 ppg) and are one of two teams to allow 21 points or fewer in all games this season. In addition, Arizona tied its season-low points total (13) last week.
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