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NFL Week 7 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome back to my Week 7 NFL Line Report at BettingPros, featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you're unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out my Week 1 introduction.

Long story short, NFL prices aren't standardized, so not all points are priced equally. I'm going to run valuations on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting board each week and chart prices to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the ML versus ATS (and vice-versa).

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NFL Week 7 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

Significant Overnight Line Moves And Notes Since The Open

JAC moved from (-1) to (+1) at NO

This particular move unsurprisingly began when Jaguar QB Trevor Lawrence missed practice on Monday. However, it continued even after the former first-overall pick did get in a limited session on Tuesday, though C.J. Beathard took the first-team reps. Lawrence told the media at the presser afterward he “felt good” and was “optimistic he could play Thursday,” but the Jags have remained the underdog regardless.

The Saints’ defense is third in defensive EPA/play (+0.16), having played spectacularly so far. That said, I’d argue their schedule and the quarterbacks they faced (Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones and C.J. Stroud) have a lot to do with it. Jacksonville backers should take the grace of that point before the pendulum swings back to the open.

DET moved from (+0.5) to (+3) at BAL

I’m always transparent about the high level of variance in this type of work and the inherent unpredictability of NFL line moves. Every week there’s always at least one significant event that completely befuddles me, and this one still has me shrugging. I think Detroit’s easily the more well-balanced team and a legitimate pop at an outright win. The Lions average 5.8 points and 44.5 more yards a game than the Ravens on offense with a comparably performing defense.

This goes against most conventional approaches to CLV among sharps, but I’m not opposed to trailing prices that go against me. I’ll be watching closely for any signs of a move to (+3.5), which oftentimes collapses even further. Patience can be a virtue.

BUF moved from (-10) to (-8.5) at NE

Another move off a critical number and another confused look on my face. Similar to what happened in Jacksonville, the line started moving toward the home team on the perception of a QB injury. Then, just like in Jacksonville, that quarterback practiced, yet the line remained stagnant. From an analytical standpoint, the Bills dominate both sides of the spreadsheet and should easily be double-digit favorites. Josh Allen practiced Wednesday and said he’d be ready to go. I think the preemptive move is creating a value opportunity for the Bills’ bettors.

NFL Week 7 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves

BUF should move from (-8.5) to (-10) at NE

From a cost perspective, the movement (or lack thereof) in regard to the Bills’ money line provides my biggest clue of a coming shift.  Even as the spread jumped from (-10) to (-8.5) at a value of over +$35 per point, the ML hardly budged. I think the Josh Allen news marks a bottom in trading, and we’re going to close back at the open as news is digested.

JAC should move from (+1) to (PK) at NO

Our valuation chart (image below) best illustrates how pricing in the JAC/NO showdown acts as an outlier from the pack. Throughout the season, we’ve covered the direct correlation between a rise in the spread and subsequent cost-per-point. So by simply scanning down the left side of the image, you can spot which games stick out and how the Trevor Lawrence news has disproportionately affected pricing. Just like in Buffalo, I think prices will swing back toward the open as the market digests the fact the QB situation’s sturdier than perceived.

 

 

NFL Week 7 Favorites with Value on the Moneyline vs. ATS

  • CLE (-135) at IND
  • NO (-120) vs JAC
  • TB (-135) vs ATL
  • WAS (-125) at NYG
  • PHI (-125) vs MIA
  • GB (-115) at DEN

NFL Week 7 Underdogs with Value ATS vs. On the Moneyline

  • IND (+2) vs CLE
  • JAC (+1) vs NO
  • ATL (+2.5) at TB
  • NYG (+2) vs WAS
  • MIA (+2) at PHI
  • DEN (+1) vs GB 

Not to continue beating the same dead horse every week, I’ll keep it short. Any handicapper that rolls their eyes at point valuation and bets a (-1) ATS is doing it wrong. There’s a common misconception among social media touts that NFL games don’t end within a point or two and I’d like to dispel that. So far this year, 10 of 93 (10.7%) whistles have blown on final scores within two points or less. This simple calculation matters to long-term return on investment (ROI).

Week 7 Best Bet: BUF (-8.5) to win 1 unit. Record YTD (2-2-1, -0.2u)

As I mentioned before, I think the line movement we’ve experienced thus far in New England is an overreaction to a presumed Josh Allen injury. Both the Bills and Allen say he’s fine and will play, which to me means this one should be listed at the double-digit open. Buffalo holds the distinct edge on offense, outscoring the Patriots by more than three TDs a game over their last three games. I don’t see this floundering Patriot offense and its lack of explosivity getting the touchdowns needed to cover.

For some of the stats behind this call, check out the accompanying video @BettingPros on X.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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