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NFL Week 7 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)

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Last week, the New York Jets knocked off the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Cleveland Browns were even larger underdogs in their surprise victory over the San Francisco 49ers. From a player prop perspective, Drake London went over 100 receiving yards for just the second time in his career, and Kyren Williams ran for 158 yards. What shocking results can we expect this week?

Here are the best longshot bets of Week 7 of the NFL season.

Best NFL Week 7 Longshot Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles to Both Score 30 Points (+450)

Sunday Night Football has produced very little scoring this season. Just one game has seen a total of 50 or more points, and that was when the 49ers beat the Dallas Cowboys 42-10 two weeks ago. Primetime scoring is down across the board, which may deter bettors from this play. However, this is a really good price for this prop.

The Dolphins have scored 30 or more in four of their six games this season. Twice they have scored more than 40. The Eagles have scored 34 twice, and they have scored at least 23 in all but last week's loss to the Jets.

These two offenses are great, and the good news for both units is they're facing defenses that have been prone to allowing yards and points. The Eagles are great against the run, but they're allowing 254.0 passing yards per game. Tua Tagovailoa and his weapons should have a huge day. Additionally, the Dolphins' defense has allowed at least 20 points in four of their six games, which isn't good considering the Eagles' offense will be the best they've faced this season. 

Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts Exactly 1 Touchdown (+1400)

It was announced earlier this week that Anthony Richardson is done for the season. That means that Gardner Minshew will take over as the starting quarterback for the remainder of the season. He's actually been pretty good so far, completing 90-138 passes for 882 yards and three touchdowns. However, he's about to face one of the best defenses in all of football.

The Browns have held two opponents to three points this season, and they just held the seemingly unstoppable 49ers to 17 points last week. This could be a letdown spot for the Browns, but this defense has shown all season just how good they are. In the two games they gave up more than 20 points, the offense was to blame for at least two touchdowns.

Of course, in this game, there is always the chance of a defensive touchdown messing this up. However, we're going to strictly look at the offenses and expect very little scoring. This week, Deshaun Watson said he can't put a timeline on his return, which means PJ Walker should be back under center. In last week's win, he managed just one touchdown. Who's to say he gets more this week?

Lamar Jackson 100+ Rushing Yards (+825)

The odds on this are very high and rightfully so. The Detroit Lions have the top rush defense in all of football, and they've yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. However, the Lions' kryptonite over the past few years has been a running quarterback. They haven't faced one yet this season, so this is the one area where we don't know if this unit has improved.

Jackson has one 100-yard rushing game this season. His next highest performance after that one is the 62 yards he ran for last week against the Tennessee Titans. Additionally, Jackson hasn't had much success throwing the ball, and the Lions' secondary has been much improved since their Week 2 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

With how well the Lions pressure quarterbacks, Jackson could be in trouble for the majority of this game. If that's the case, we expect him to take advantage of running lanes and have a big game against a defense that has yet to be tested by another player of his ilk this year.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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