NFL Week 7 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday)
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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday
Raiders vs. Bears
Who’s ready for Brian Hoyer / Aidan O’Connell vs. Tyson Bagent in the Windy City? If the answer is nobody, I get it. Josh McDaniels is still playing coy regarding his starter, but he'd be a fool not to go with the veteran Hoyer. Well, wait a second, McDaniels is sort of a fool. Anyway, I suspect Hoyer gets the start here, which elevates the floor of a Raiders passing game that could move the ball against a Chicago stop unit that's 31st in EPA. But why am I isolating the Bears defense? Both defenses are putrid. Neither generates pressure and both are terrible against the pass. The difference here could be the ground games, as Chicago's rushing offense actually ranks third in EPA behind Philadelphia and Miami, while Las Vegas' rushing offense ranks dead last in EPA. Even more interesting is that the Raiders rank 30th in EPA rushing defense. Bagent is a complete unknown, and the Raiders might just load eight in the box and dare Bagent to beat them, which isn't a bad strategy. But I find the Raiders to be somewhat overvalued after unimpressive wins against New England and Green Bay at home. This is far from my favorite play, but if I had to make a pick, I'll take the points with Chicago. I also like D'Onta Foreman to go over his rushing yardage total, assuming Roschon Johnson does not return.
Pick: Bears +2.5 / D’Onta Foreman over 63 rushing yards
-Matt Barbato
Browns vs. Colts
Deshaun Watson finally practiced on Thursday for the Browns. However, it remains to be seen if he'll actually be active for Sunday's game against the Colts. But no matter who plays quarterback, whether it's Watson or P.J. Walker, the Browns have something that the Colts don't. That's defense. The Browns have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Colts have struggled in the secondary on defense. Whoever plays quarterback for the Browns will just need to limit turnovers. The Browns' defense will get theirs, especially after Gardner Minshew threw three interceptions against the Jaguars last weekend. The Browns are even better defensively than Jacksonville. Take the Browns -3.
Pick: Browns -3.5
-Jason Radowitz
Bills vs. Patriots
Before I begin, I want to recognize how painful this was to write. But the Patriots have to be the play here. This is the first time since Tom Brady's rookie season that New England is a home underdog of greater than a touchdown under Bill Belichick. And the trends aren't on our side here, as Belichick's Pats are 3-7 as a home dog since Brady left the team. But boy, this is a lot of points to be laying with a Buffalo team in a road divisional spot after the Bills didn't come close to covering against the Giants as massive home favorites a week prior. New England should've covered last week if not for a perplexing safety taken by Mac Jones late. And while I recognize that betting on Mac Jones could be the equivalent of lighting money on fire, I think there are some issues with this Bills team. Josh Allen is banged up, for starters. And the Buffalo defense is banged up and already without Tre'Davious White and Matt Milano. Fans are starting to wonder whether it's time for the franchise to move on from Bill Belichick. But I'll back Belichick one last time to ugly this up, similar to what he did against Philadelphia and Miami earlier this season. Belichick will have a plan for phasing Stefon Diggs out of the game, and New England tops the league in rush defense EPA. And if Belichick can confuse Allen into a turnover or two, that might be all we need to cover this big number. This is truly Belichick’s last stand.
Pick: Patriots +8.5
-Matt Barbato
Commanders vs. Giants
The Commanders broke their three-game losing streak last week with a win over the Falcons. The defense has been struggling, allowing the third-most points and fourth-most total yards. The offense has done well, including Sam Howell, who has a 67.8% completion percentage and has thrown one or fewer picks in five of six games. The Giants have dropped four straight, but last week was one of their best games recently with having the chance to win against the Bills, and if passer interference was called on the last play, they could have another chance. The status of Daniel Jones is in the air as he deals with the neck issue, but Jones says he's progressing towards playing. At the moment, the Giants passing offense is awful, but you hope they can play better against a passing defense that is 27th, so take the Giants as home dogs.
Pick: Giants +3
-John Supowitz
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
This is one of the most important matchups for the NFC South this season. Both of these teams are vying for that division crown and even though the game is early. It bears great importance. The Bucs lost last week to the Lions, but were plagued by untimely drops. Baker Mayfield and his receivers should have a little bit more success against a Falcon pass defense that is near the bottom of the league in DVOA. Meanwhile, the Tampa defense has been stout. An Atlanta offense that has struggled all year should have trouble being able to move the ball on this unit. This is a really good matchup for the home team and I’m backing them on the spread.
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
-Ryan Rodeman
Lions vs. Ravens
The Lions have taken last year's stellar run of winning eight of their final nine games and transitioned that into this season with a 5-1 record. They'll be short-handed in the backfield with David Montgomery out, but this will give rookie Jahmyr Gibbs an opportunity at a heavier workload to see if he can be a feature back. They also have Jared Goff, who's third in air yards per attempt and fifth in passing yards per game. The Ravens are 4-2, but we can't say they have a quality win. They have wins against the Texans in C.J Stroud's debut, the Browns led by Dorian Thompson-Robinson, an injured Joe Burrow, and the last-place Titans. The Baltimore defense has some of the best stats this year, being second in total yards allowed and fourth in points allowed, but this game will be a reality check facing a stellar Lions offense.
Pick: Lions ML
-John Supowitz
Steelers vs. Rams
The Steelers will bring back Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth back from the injured list. Those two receivers could play a big role in getting the Pittsburgh offense back on track. Pittsburgh has earned just 289.4 yards per game offensively, but have given up 409.2 yards defensively. Yet, the Steelers are 3-2 on the season. Pittsburgh will get to face a Rams secondary that hasn't looked good this season. Los Angeles has also missed a lot of tackles this season. On the other hand, the Rams have four running backs on the roster. But they're unsure who will get the start and most carries. It sounds like the Rams will just try and throw the ball with veteran Matthew Stafford, knowing Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will be on the field. Therefore, I'll rock with the Over 44 in this game.
Pick: Over 43.5
-Jason Radowitz
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
The Arizona Cardinals haven't scored more than 20 points in a game over the last three games. They've also allowed nearly 400 yards per game this season. Arizona's a few weeks away from having Kyler Murray under center. So this is Joshua Dobbs' time to shine. However, Seattle's defense has been dominant as a pass rush and has held teams to 79.2 yards on the ground. Without James Conner, the Arizona offense is toast. Meanwhile, the Seahawks haven't been great offensively either. But a game against Arizona's secondary should help wake up DK Metcalf. Let's take the Seahawks to cover the 8-point spread.
Pick: Seahawks -7.5
-Jason Radowitz
Packers vs. Broncos
There is nothing exciting about this Denver team. They’re a historically bad defense and the offense hasn’t fared much better. However, outside of their memorable 70-20 defeat to the Dolphins, they’ve stayed in almost every game they’ve played. On the other side, the Packers are finding life after Aaron Rodgers is difficult. The offense really hasn’t gotten going after a Week 1 fool’s gold performance against the Bears. Early returns are Jordan Love isn’t going to live up to the Hall of Fame status of his predecessors in Green Bay. The offense should be healthier than they’ve been all season off the bye, but the loss of David Bakhtiari will prove to be massive for this offensive line. If Denver can get to Love and cause pressure they can throw the Green Bay attack off course. Regardless I like the Broncos at home to be able to move the ball and control the clock on this Green Bay run defense. It’s hard to back a side here, so I’m just going to go with the under.
Pick: Under 45
-Ryan Rodeman
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Betting on Brandon Staley isn’t fun, but all Los Angeles does is play close games. All of L.A.’s games this season have been decided by single digits, and this series has been awfully tight recently, with last year’s contests both being decided by a field goal.
The Chargers have just been a tough matchup for the Chiefs because they have the firepower to keep up with Patrick Mahomes’ unit. But what’s especially important this year is that Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-fewest yards to opposing tight ends this season. Shutting down Travis Kelce is critical to beating this year’s version of the Chiefs, who lack proven threats on the outside.
Going on the road after another brutal loss in primetime is a tough spot for the Chargers, but I ultimately think this game will be tight the whole way until Los Angeles does something silly and sets up Kansas City for a game-winning field goal.
Pick: Chargers +5.5
-Matt Barbato
Dolphins vs. Eagles
This is the matchup of the weekend as we see two premiere teams with visible Super Bowl aspirations. This Dolphins offense could go down as one of the best ever, as they're scoring seven more points per game and 103 more yards than the next team. Tua Tagovailoa is a real MVP candidate, as every major book has him as the odds favorite, with Tyreek Hill realistically looking at a 2,000+ receiving-yard season. The Eagles offense is second in total yards per game while fifth in points. It will be the first time Jalen Hurts will need to brush off a bad performance because it's the first time since November 2021 that he threw three interceptions in a game and only the third time in the last 24 to have multiple picks. There's a reason this total is set at 51; neither defense has been great this year, as Miami is 26th in points allowed per game and Philadelphia is 15th. The offensive fireworks should be blasting in this primetime game.
Pick: Over 51.5
-John Supowitz
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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