NFL Week 7 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2024)
Week 6’s Sunday slate was not good for the underdogs, as the favorites went 8-2-1 straight up (SU) and 7-3-1 against the spread (ATS). Does this mean we’re starting to figure out who a lot of these teams are? I’m going to say no because I see quite a few potential underdog winners in Week 7.
I’m not saying these picks will all hit, but it is not inconceivable for several underdogs to have their day this Sunday.
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Best NFL Week 7 Underdog Picks
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
New England Patriots (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+190)
- Sunday, Oct. 20 @ 9:30 a.m. ET
New England may have an edge at quarterback this week. It will only be Drake Maye’s second start, but he gave the Pats something they hadn’t had all year last week — a decent passing game. Against one of the worst pass defenses in the league (Jacksonville), it is not hard to imagine him having a breakout game.
There is no reason why Trevor Lawrence can’t decimate a lackluster Pats defense. But he hasn’t gotten the job done all season, so why should we believe he will now? Easy answer — we shouldn’t.
This will be an ugly game between two poor teams, but in the end, the Patriots will come out on top.
Pick: Patriots Moneyline (+190)
Houston Texans (+124) vs. Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
- Sunday, Oct. 20 @ 1 p.m. ET
Home-field advantage is probably why the Packers are 2.5-point favorites in this game. Statistically speaking, the Packers have the advantage, but the Texans were without Joe Mixon for a few weeks. With him, as we saw in Week 1 and last week, the Houston offense takes on a new dimension.
Both teams have solid passing games and good defenses. It will probably be one of the season’s best games to date, won by whoever makes the fewest mistakes. Since C.J. Stroud takes better care of the ball than Jordan Love, I’m taking the Texans to win outright.
Pick: Texans Moneyline (+124)
Detroit Lions (+110) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
- Sunday, Oct. 20 @ 1 p.m. ET
Other than the game being played in Minneapolis, there is no reason why the Vikings should be the betting favorite in this game. While Minnesota has dominated this rivalry over the years (80-43-2), Detroit won the last three and four of the last five.
However, the Vikings have won five of the last six in Minneapolis (11-04/2018-12/24/2023).
Both teams are playing tremendous defense this year. Less than a yard separates their total yards allowed. Minnesota is allowing 17 more yards in the passing game but 16 fewer yards rushing (Vikings rank No. 2; Lions rank No. 3). But Detroit is allowing more points (18.2 to 15.2).
The Lions are a much better team on offense. Detroit throws for 50+ yards per game more than the Vikings, but the Vikings have a 10-yard advantage in the run game. Sam Darnold is having an incredible season… but so is Jared Goff, who has more weapons.
The resurrection of Sam Darnold is a great story, but the Lions have a better offense than the Vikings.
Pick: Lions Moneyline (+110)
Honorable Mention
- Eagles (-3) vs. Giants (+138): The Giants’ defense is playing well, and the Eagles, well… the Eagles are not. On paper, Philly should easily win this one, but the Eagles are struggling this season, and I’m not so sure this game will break them out of the funk.
- Chiefs (-102) vs. 49ers (-1.5): The Super Bowl winner is 6-4 when the two teams meet in the regular season the following year.
- Jets (-2) vs. Steelers (+114): In a close game, like this is expected to be, I’ll bet on Mike Tomlin finding a way to win every time.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: