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NFL Week 7 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)

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Drake Maye makes the second start of his career, as his New England Patriots take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Is he in for a huge game? Jayden Daniels, another rookie quarterback, also has a great matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Will he use his legs to best a weak run defense? The Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns battle in an AFC North showdown that is sure to be low-scoring. Could it be the lowest scoring of Sunday?

Here are the best longshot bets of Week 7 of the NFL season.

Best NFL Week 7 Longshot Bets

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Bengals vs. Browns: Lowest Scoring Game on Sunday (+600)

The Sunday Night Football game between the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers is currently favored to be the lowest-scoring game of the weekend. But based on what we've seen from the Bengals and Browns this season, there is value in taking this game at +600 to be the lowest scoring of Sunday.

The Browns are averaging just 15.8 points per game. That's the third-worst mark in the league and the worst average for a team that hasn't suffered an injury at quarterback or had a rookie play part of the season at the position. They've yet to score 20 points in a game this season.

While the Bengals have scored at least 30 points in three games this season, they scored only 17 last week. The Browns' defense isn't what it was a year ago, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they're always on the field thanks to their offense. Last season, the Browns faced Joe Burrow once. They held him to three points.

Jayden Daniels 80+ Rushing Yards (+425)

The Panthers have one of the worst rush defenses in football. They're allowing 153.5 rushing yards per game. Last week, they allowed 198 rushing yards to the Atlanta Falcons. While this means big things from the Commanders' running backs, it's also great news for Daniels.

Daniels was held to just 22 rushing yards last week against the Baltimore Ravens. It was his lowest total of the season. He's rushed for at least 80 yards in two games this season. Daniels is running the ball a little less frequently as the season develops, attempting fewer than 10 rushes in two of his last three games. But he's still very dangerous and has averaged at least 5.5 yards per carry in three of his six games.

Drake Maye 275+ Passing Yards (+650)

Fading the Jaguars' pass defense has resulted in a lot of success this season. While Caleb Williams didn't rack up a lot of yards last week, he did throw four passing touchdowns, as the Bears demolished the Jaguars in London.

This week, the Jaguars take on Drake Maye, a rookie making just his second career start. Maye was ok in his first start, throwing three touchdowns and two interceptions. He finished with 243 yards against the Texans, which is currently the fourth-best unit in the league against the pass.

Though Williams' stats last week may worry some, Maye doesn't play for a team nearly as good as the Bears. Therefore, the Patriots are likely to be trailing or playing with a lead of no more than one score for the entirety of the game. That means Maye will be throwing a lot. Against a defense allowing over 276 passing yards per game, I expect him to have a huge day.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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