NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
After making 14 selections last week and finishing with a disappointing .500 record, we’re easing back on the throttle just a bit in Week 7. It is, after all, a six-team bye week. There are fewer games and fewer player props to capture our fancy.
Let’s pick some winners.
First, a quick recap of Week 6 …
The wins: Gardner Minshew over 230.5 passing yards, Zach Wilson under 196.5 passing yards, James Cook over 56.5 rushing yards, Zack Moss under 45.5 rushing yards, Drake London over 44.5 receiving yards, Tyler Higbee under 34.5 receiving yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown over 73.5 receiving yards
The losses: Joshua Dobbs under 219.5 passing yards, Matthew Stafford over 279.5 passing yards, Bijan Robinson over 69.5 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 69.5 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 48.5 rushing yards, Kyren Williams under 66.5 rushing yards, Jordan Addison over 51.5 receiving yards
- Last week: 7-7
- Season record: 28-28
Here are my favorite selections for Week 7 …
NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Friday morning.
Matthew Stafford OVER 264.5 passing yards
The Rams lost their top two running backs to injuries last Sunday. With Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers out this week, the Rams will turn to sixth-round draft pick Zach Evans and journeyman Royce Freeman, perhaps with some Myles Gaskin or Darrell Henderson mixed in. In other words, they’re probably going to throw a lot. That’s not a problem for Stafford, who’s averaging 37.8 attempts per game. Aside from last week’s 26-9 win over the Cardinals where he threw only 24 times, Stafford has thrown at least 33 passes in every game this season. Stafford will be facing a Steelers defense that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game.
Bijan Robinson OVER 54.5 rushing yards
I’m continuing to hammer the overs on Bijan’s rushing totals, even though it’s blown up in my face the last two week. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith isn’t giving his star rookie enough carries, but Bijan has logged at least 13 rushing attempts in each of his last three games, and with his prodigious talent, that should be enough to clear this total. Bijan will be up against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 10th in DVOA against the run. But as my colleague Derek Brown points out in The Primer, the Buccaneers have allowed the 10th-highest yards per carry and the sixth-highest success rate against zone runs, and about 65% of Bijan’s rushing attempts are zone runs.
Kenneth Walker over 71.5 rushing yards
Walker has been a workhorse, with at least 17 carries in each of his last four games. The electric Walker ranks 10th among all qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt. He’ll be facing an Arizona defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the run. The Cardinals are giving up 112.8 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Arizona is also yielding the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt. Walker should run wild on Sunday.
Drake London OVER 47.5 receiving yards
London was held without a catch in Week 1, but he’s been productive over his last five games. Since Week 2, London has averaged 8.4 targets, 5.2 receptions and 65.8 receiving yards a game. This week he’ll face a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 190.2 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers. Smash the over here.
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Jakobi Meyers UNDER 51.5 receiving yards
Meyers has demonstrated terrific chemistry with Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo this year, but Jimmy G will miss the Raiders’ Week 7 game against the Bears with a back injury. The Raiders haven’t announced whether veteran Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O’Connell will get the start, but either way, the outlook for Meyers is diminished. When O’Connell started in place of the injured Garoppolo in Week 4, Meyers was targeted on only four of O’Connell’s 39 pass attempts and had two catches for 33 yards. This is a high bar for Meyers to clear with a backup quarterback throwing to him.
Darnell Mooney UNDER 24.5 receiving yards
As with the under on Jakobi Meyers’ receiving yardage, I’m fading Mooney largely because he’ll be working with a backup quarterback. Bears starter Justin Fields is sidelined with a dislocated thumb, so head coach Matt Eberflus will turn to rookie backup Tyson Bagent, an undrafted free agent from Shepherd University in West Virginia. Stepping in for Fields last week, Bagent averaged 5.9 yards on his 14 pass attempts. Mooney has been held without a catch in three of Chicago’s six games. It’s hard to imagine him doing much business with Bagent this week.
Zach Ertz UNDER 24.5 receiving yards
The Cardinals may have initiated a changing of the guard at tight end last week. Second-year man Trey McBride had a season-high 58% snap share and finished with four catches for 62 yards against the Rams. Ertz had a season-low 46% snap share and caught two passes for 22 yards. Ertz, who turns 33 next month, is averaging a meager 4.3 yards per target. If Ertz continues to get a haircut in snaps, his odds of clearing this number are slim. He’s had 22 or fewer receiving yards in 4-of-6 games this year. Ertz faces a Seattle defense that’s giving up 40.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Cooper Kupp OVER 90.5 receiving yards
In 2021, when Kupp had 1,947 receiving yards, the sportsbooks couldn’t set the yardage totals high enough for him, and I made money pounding Kupp overs all season long. It’s time to get back on board the Cooper Kupp moneymaking express. In his first two games back from a hamstring injury, Kupp has had 118 and 148 receiving yards. Over the last two weeks, he has a 34.4% target share and a 47.3% air-yard share. Kupp will run the majority of his routes this week against Steelers slot corner Chandon Sullivan, who has allowed a 75% catch rate and a 139.1 passer rating on throws into his coverage. I expect him to clear this number with ease.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
- NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 7)
- Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 8 Bets (2023)
- College Football Week 8 Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks (2023)
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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