NFL Week 7 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)
This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, best bets and predictions for Week 7.
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Week 7 Spread Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Home Spread | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Wolbransky | Santora | MacMillan |
| ARI | NO | -2 | NO | NO | ARI | NO | NO |
| BAL | CLE | -6.5 | BAL | BAL | CLE | BAL | CLE |
| CIN | ATL | -6 | CIN | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL |
| DAL | DET | -7 | DET | DET | DET | DAL | DET |
| WAS | GB | 5.5 | WAS | WAS | GB | WAS | WAS |
| CAR | TB | 10.5 | TB | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| JAX | NYG | -3 | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG |
| TEN | IND | -2.5 | IND | IND | IND | IND | TEN |
| LV | HOU | -7 | HOU | LV | HOU | HOU | HOU |
| DEN | NYJ | -1.5 | NYJ | DEN | NYJ | NYJ | DEN |
| SF | KC | 3 | SF | SF | KC | KC | SF |
| LAC | SEA | -6.5 | SEA | SEA | SEA | LAC | SEA |
| MIA | PIT | -7 | PIT | MIA | PIT | MIA | PIT |
| NE | CHI | -8 | NE | CHI | NE | NE | CHI |
NO +2 @ ARI
I’m a man of few principles, but I do have some personal rules, and one of them is to bet against HC Kliff Kingsbury’s Cardinals as home favorites no matter what. In that spot, they’re 4-11 ATS. Even with all their injuries, the Saints have been good with backup QB Andy Dalton (30 points per game), and the Cardinals defense is dead last in dropback success rate (53.4%). Meanwhile, the Cardinals offense is No. 29 in yards per play (4.8), and QB Kyler Murray is No. 31 in adjusted yards per pass attempt (5.6). Even at home, the Cardinals should be favored against few teams in the league — and the Saints aren’t one of them.
– Matthew Freedman
NYJ+1.5 @ DEN
Denver is 2-4 against the spread, while the Jets are 4-2. It’s not a long shot at this point to rank the Jets ahead of the Broncos, given that they outrank the Broncos in offensive EPA. The Broncos do have an impressive defense, one that I’d argue is a top 5 unit in the NFL, but the Jets have the 4th best points margin in the NFL since Zach Wilson took over, while the Broncos have the 9th worst in that timespan. Couple that with a nagging Russ Wilson injury, there’s not much to like from the Broncos and plenty to feel good about for the Jets.
– Ben Wolbransky
KC -3 @ SF
The Chiefs haven’t lost two games in a row since Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2021 season. They come in off a difficult matchup against the Bills, which looked like it would come down to last possession again. Ultimately, it ended with a Mahomes interception. The 49ers were favorites on the road in Atlanta and ended up losing by two touchdowns. The Chiefs have a significant QB advantage in this matchup, and their run defense, on average, has been giving up less than 100 yards per game this season.
– Dylan Santora
ATL +6 @ CIN
Atlanta enters Week 7 as the only remaining undefeated team ATS, yet I believe that the market still hasn’t caught up to how good they are. The Bengals’ offense has struggled to return to the form that got them to the Super Bowl last year, ranking 4th worst in rushing yards per attempt and sitting in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per attempt, despite their elite receiving core. Meanwhile, the Falcons possess one of the league’s most effective rushing attacks (4th overall in yards) and a very competent passing game (11th in yards per attempt), which has driven them to have a top-10 scoring offense. I don’t believe that the Bengals should be this big of a favorite in a back-and-forth game where the back door should be wide open at the end.
– Austin MacMillan
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Week 7 Total Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Over/Under | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Wolbransky | Santora | MacMillan |
| ARI | NO | 44.5 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Under |
| BAL | CLE | 45.5 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| CIN | ATL | 47.5 | Under | Over | Under | Under | Over |
| DAL | DET | 48 | Under | Over | Over | Under | Under |
| WAS | GB | 41.5 | Under | Over | Under | Over | Under |
| CAR | TB | 40.5 | Under | Under | Over | Over | Over |
| JAX | NYG | 42.5 | Under | Under | Over | Under | Under |
| TEN | IND | 43.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| LV | HOU | 45.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| DEN | NYJ | 39.5 | Over | Under | Over | Over | Over |
| SF | KC | 48.5 | Under | Over | Under | Under | Over |
| LAC | SEA | 51 | Over | Over | Over | Under | Over |
| MIA | PIT | 44.5 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Under |
| NE | CHI | 39.5 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Under |
SEA @ LAC Over 50.5
We saw what Seattle’s offense is capable of. Since week 3, they have the 2nd highest total offensive EPA behind the chiefs and ahead of Buffalo. Part of that is the bad defenses they’ve faced, but the Chargers are no exception to that. We saw Kenneth Walker dazzle in his starting debut last week vs Arizona, and now, he faces a bottom three run defense in the NFL, allowing the most YPC to opposing running backs. Seattle games are averaging 51.5 points total this season. As for the Chargers, they’re averaging 49 points per game and facing the defense that’s allowed the 3rd most points per game in the NFL.
– Ben Wolbransky
NO @ ARZ Under 44.5
The Cardinals lost leading receiver Marquise Brown to injury but get DeAndre Hopkins back from injury. That said, it would be hard to imagine losing their best offensive player this year would help turn their offense around against the Saints. They scored nine points last week against a Seattle defense that was allowing over 30 points per game on average through the first five weeks. The Cardinals’ defense has not allowed over 20 points in four straight games, so I think the under has a chance against an Andy Dalton-led offense.
– Dylan Santora
CHI @ NE Under 39.5
The Bears possess one of the worst offenses in the NFL, ranking in the bottom 5 in most relevant passing metrics and scoring only 1.55 points per possession, good for 26th best in the league. Because of their inability to throw the football, the Bears have leaned heavily on their rushing attack, having attempted the 4th most rushes in the NFL. Whether it be Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe under center on Monday night, the Patriots have also displayed their commitment to running the football, attempting the 6th most rushes in the league. I expect for the clock to be running for the majority of this game as these teams try to establish the run, ultimately landing the game under the point total and continuing the trend of low scoring primetime games in 2022 (13-6 to the under).
– Austin MacMillan
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