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Broncos vs. Saints Picks & Best Player Prop Bets: NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football

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Welcome to the ultimate Week 7 NFL sports betting breakdown from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, and this week, all eyes are on one of the season’s most “anticipated” matchups: the Denver Broncos heading to New Orleans to take on the Saints. It's more than just another game-it’s the Sean Payton revenge game against his old team. The legendary coach who brought a Super Bowl to New Orleans now leads the Broncos into a fierce battle at the Superdome, where emotions will be running high.

From expert analysis of the spread and total to must-have player props, I'll guide you through every key betting angle for this exciting matchup. Whether you’re looking to build the perfect single-game parlay or lock in your top prop bets, I've got you covered. This is just a preview of what's in store when the FULL BettingPros Week 7 Primer drops later this week. Get ready to place those bets and dive into my top picks for this can’t-miss Broncos vs. Saints showdown!

Thursday Night Football Primer: Broncos vs. Saints

Sides:

  • The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games as road underdogs.
  • In eight of the Saints’ last nine games against AFC opponents, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five Thursday games.
  • The Saints have lost each of their last four games.
  • The Saints are 2-5 ATS as home underdogs (7-13 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 1-6 straight up. Woof.
  • Rookie QBs are a combined 13-7 ATS this season.
  • The Broncos are 5-6 ATS on the road dating back to 2023 (3-2 ATS last five road games).

Totals:

  • Six of the Saints' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line
  • Games have averaged 52 points at home in New Orleans this season (2-1 O/U).
  • The Saints have the second-best red-zone defense in the NFL (38% conversion rate).
  • The Broncos rank first in red zone defense.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • Six of the Broncos' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Broncos' last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Broncos’ last five road games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

I never thought we would get another Thursday night matchup that would be so reminiscent of AFC South Color Rush games between the Titans and the Jaguars. But with rookies Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler going head-to-head, we might be in for a memorable - for better or worse - TNF experience.

Both teams are far from 100% health-wise. Broncos All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain will likely miss with a concussion. Chris Olave also has a concussion and seems unlikely to play. Rashid Shaheed has a knee injury and also seems unlikely to play. The Saints have lost their starting quarterback and top two wide receivers in the past two weeks.

On the early lookahead show - subscribe on the BettingPros YouTube channel - I led off the week leaning heavily toward Denver's side, even on the road. The lines flipped with Denver now favorites after NO opened as slight 1-point favorites.

The Broncos are a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season compared to the Saints' mediocre record as home underdogs; they are 2-5 ATS as home underdogs in their last seven.

The coaching advantage is clearly in favor of Sean Payton over Dennis Allen. Considering how bad the Saints’ defense played against the Buccaneers, I think Payton will be able to take full advantage. New Orleans’ defense tends to typically struggle against mobile quarterbacks, and Nix fits the mold given he ranks third in the NFL in scrambles (19) and sixth in rushing yards (180) among quarterbacks.

And although he has hardly been great as a passer, Nix has improved each week in Payton's offense. Per Next Gen Stats, Nix generated +3.3 total EPA on dropbacks in Week 6 against the Chargers, which is the most of his career. Nix has steadily improved over the course of the season, generating two of his three highest dropback success rates and completion percentages over expected of the season during Weeks 5 and 6.

Nix's biggest issue has been his play under pressure. The former Oregon quarterback has averaged 3.1 yards per attempt when under pressure this season, a full yard fewer than any other qualified quarterback, according to Next Gen Stats. The Saints rank 28th in pressure rate this season. We also saw how poor New Orleans was against the run last week. This run defense is reeling and still trying to tackle Tampa Bay’s ball carriers.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Saints have allowed 1,018 yards after the catch this season (one of two teams to allow over 1,000 YAC) and a league-high +231 yards after the catch over expected (the only defense that has allowed over +180 YACOE). The Saints’ 7.2 yards after the catch per reception allowed is the second-most among any defense.

Meanwhile, the Saints’ offense has been a completely different beast than it was at the start of the season. The offense has shifted its tactics from Weeks 1-2 to Weeks 3-6 this season, including a 27.3% decrease in play action rate during their four-game losing streak. The Saints have also decreased their motion rate by 14.7% over the last four weeks, per Next Gen Stats. Not what you want to see.

Injuries have also caught up to them, especially with their offensive line.

Per Next Gen Stats, after recording a run rate over expected of +10.0% through the first four weeks (fifth-highest in NFL), the Saints have switched up their run scheme, recording a run rate over expected of -4.0% over the last two weeks (31st).

Opponents have run the ball 3.1% more than expected when facing the Broncos this season.

Also, per Next Gen Stats, the Saints have rushed outside the tackles on 72.8% of their designed runs this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. After generating four explosive runs outside the tackles in three of their first four games, the Saints have not had a single explosive run outside the tackles over their last two games and rank 30th in success rate (22.7%). Matchup: The Broncos have allowed the third-lowest success rate (28.2%) and the second-lowest explosive run rate (6.4%) on outside-designed runs this season. Offenses have lost -16.6 EPA on outside designed runs against the Broncos defense (2nd in NFL).

Last week, I figured the Saints would continue to run into the Buccaneers' strong run defense, and they had a +1% pass rate over expectation. With a rookie QB and a severe lack of weapons, I think we might see the same ineffective ground game approach from the Saints offense.

We bet the under on Kamara's rushing yards prop in Week 6 and are going right back to it, under 41 yards in back-to-back contests. Also, there's a chance that Kamara will see less volume with the returns of both Taysom Hill and Kendre Miller to the lineup.

Denver also boasts a much superior pass rush to the Saints. Per Next Gen Stats, Zach Allen (31 pressures) and Jonathan Cooper (22 pressures) have led a Broncos defense that has generated a 41.0% pressure rate this season (second in the NFL). The Broncos have also converted 23.7% of their pressures into sacks in 2024, the fifth-highest pressure-to-sack conversion rate in the league.

Denver - like Tampa Bay - is going to bring the blitz against Spencer Rattler. Last week against Todd Bowles' blitzes, Rattler completed six of 18 passes for 39 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Give me the Broncos -2.5 in a Sean Payton revenge game. And take the under given how both defenses thrive in the red zone.

Props:

  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Alvin Kamara has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Saints’ last four games following a home loss.
  • Juwan Johnson has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last two Thursday appearances.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, The Saints have missed 57 tackles this season (T-13th most in the NFL), allowing opponents to gain a league-high 370 yards from missed tackles. Javonte Williams has forced 23 missed tackles this season, the 10th-most in the NFL.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Paulson Adebo has been targeted 54 times in coverage this season, the most among any defender, yet has allowed the fewest target EPA (-23.6) among outside cornerbacks. Adebo is tied for a position-high 10 passes defensed, including three interceptions.
  • In Week 6, Javonte Williams led the backfield with six carries for 23 yards. Rookie Audric Estime, fresh off the IR, contributed 13 yards on two carries, including an 11-yard run, while Jaleel McLaughlin added 8 yards on three carries. But Williams also lost a fumble.
  • The final snaps were Javonte Williams: 67%, Jaleel McLaughlin: 25%, Audric Estime: 4%
  • Denver will play the Saints reeling run defense this week, an absolute smash spot for the Broncos running backs to get going. But after Williams struggled again and turned the ball over...we could see this backfield shift. After the Charges game, head coach Sean Payton said he wanted to see more of the rookies. Quote – "I want to see [Audric] Estime."
  • I wanted to believe Williams was turning the corner after two strong weeks, but it might be over for him. He's not a Payton guy, and he's hardly given a great case for keeping the RB1 gig. Take the under and, conversely, take the overs on Estime's rushing yards, TD props, etc.
  • The No. 1 highest EV bet in the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets tool this week? Estime anytime TD at +700. First TD bet? (For an RB on the favored team that could be used in the red zone?) +4000. I've been betting on the first TDs since last season. From an odds standpoint, this is the best one I have ever witnessed.

My Picks:

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