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NFL Week 8 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 8 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you'll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 8 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 8 games on Sunday. Note that the Sunday night and Monday night games will be getting their own dedicated articles.

NFL Week 8 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Dolphins -4.5
  • Bengals -2.5
  • Bills -3

Top Underdogs:

  • Browns +8.5
  • Buccaneers +2.5
  • Raiders +9.5

Top Totals:

  • GB/JAC under 49.5
  • IND/HOU under 45.5
  • NYJ/NE over 40.5
  • LAC/NO under 41
  • CHI/WAS under 44.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Sides:

  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Browns have lost eight of their last nine games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 12 games as favorites and 9-5 as a favorite.
  • The Browns are 6-9-1 ATS in their last 15 road appearances as underdogs and 4-2 as home underdogs.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in six of their last nine home games.
  • Cleveland is 8-4 on the ML at home.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • Baltimore is 13-5 on the money line as home favorites. But just 8-11 ATS as home favorites.
  • Baltimore is 14-5 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 10-4 ATS as a road favorite in their last 14 applicable appearances.

Totals:

  • Six of the Browns' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Browns' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Browns' last 14 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 13-11-1 toward the over in their last 25 games.
  • Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season.
  • The Browns are 1-2 toward the over at home (40.3 points per game).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 9-3 toward the under at home.
  • Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (seven of their last 10), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are 6-1 toward the over this season.
  • Six of the Ravens’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The lowest total game they've played in this season has been 45 points.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in nine of the last 12 games (nine of the previous 14).
  • Each of the Ravens' last five road games has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

After a rocky start, the Ravens have looked like an absolute powerhouse. But this team has shown, at times, to play down to its competition (see Raiders in Week 2). Considering the matchup against the Cleveland Browns on a short week, this seems like a major letdown spot for the Ravens. Jameis Winston will be making his first start of the season, which could give this Browns’ offense a major (and much-needed) boost.

Winston is one of the league's best backup QBs. He's 5-4 straight up with a 3-6 record versus the spread in his last nine full games. Against a 10-point spread, Winston would be 7-2 ATS in his last nine starts.

The series was split 1-1 in these two matchups last season. Baltimore lost at home against the Browns despite being 6.5-point favorites. They beat the Browns in Cleveland 28-3 in Dorian Thompson-Robinson's first start.

With Winston playing inspired football behind a defense that plays much better at home than on the road, I like taking the Brownies as near double-digit home underdogs. Cleveland's defense has shown up in back-to-back weeks against the Eagles/Bengals, so I think they can slow down Baltimore enough to keep this within single digits.

Props:

Ken Dorsey is taking over play calling duties for the Browns. During his tenure with Buffalo last season, he dialed up one of the most aggressive pass offenses in the NFL.

My Picks:

Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sides

  • Green Bay is 12-7 at home in its last 19 home games, 10-9 ATS
  • They are 40% ATS over the last 17 home games (6-9-1)
  • GB as a favorite: 8-15-1 ATS
  • The Packers have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 13-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 11-4 ATS. Green Bay was 4-7 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • Green Bay is 2-6 as road favorites ATS (25%) and 9-10 on the money line (47%).
  • The Packers have covered the spread in their last six games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Jaguars have an implied team total of 22.5 (same as the Texans last week)
  • The Jaguars have lost 10 of their last 13 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season. They are just 2-8 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • ATS they are 5-2 as a home underdog and on the money line (71%).
  • Jacksonville went 2-0 straight up and ATS in London last season. 1-1 this season.
  • The favorites are 6-2 straight up and ATS internationally since last season.
  • The only "upset" last season was the Jaguars defeating the Bills after Jacksonville had already spent a week in London playing back-to-back games. After the Jaguars opened up as underdogs last week, they lost as favorites. They beat the Patriots as favorites.

Totals:

  • The Packers are 17-9 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Ten of the Packers' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, and 14 in Week 7.
  • Eight of the Packers' last 12 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers have scored first in eight of their last 10 games.
  • Green Bay is on a streak of three straight unders on their three-game winning streak.
  • Four of the Jaguars’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Jags' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, six of the Jaguars' last eight games at neutral venues have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • A six-game streak of unders across the pond was broken in back-to-back weeks.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in seven of their last 15 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.
  • Both of the London Jaguars’ games last season were under the projected game total, and both games this season were over.
  • The UNDER has hit in five of the last seven NFL games played in London.

Overall:

I am very much torn when choosing sides here. The Jaguars have been solid ATS as a home underdog and straight up (71%), whereas the Packers have been extremely lackluster as road favorites against the number (2-6). That being said, Green Bay has covered the spread in each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record. I also don’t love the on-paper matchup.

The Jaguars lead the NFL in man coverage. Per FantasyPoints data, Dontayvion Wicks has been targeted on 50% of his routes against man coverage - by far the most on the Packers offense. Christian Watson leads GB in yards per route run against man coverage. Last season, Watson led the Packers in target share (26%) against man coverage.

Jordan Love against man coverage this season ranks 39th in passer rating (68.0), 45th in yards per attempt, and 37th in catchable target rate.

I prefer betting the under on this game than chasing sides. It's a massive total at 49.5 points, a threshold the Packers have only surpassed twice this season. The Packers’ defense has shown out in three straight games (paired with three straight unders), so I think they can create some issues for this inconsistent Jaguars offense.

Props:

Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over his receiving yards prop in all but one game this season. The rookie continues to exceed expectations and that should continue against the Packers. Six of the last seven most similar WRs to Thomas have exceeded their receiving yards prop versus the Packers, with four going for 70-plus yards. Thomas has 80-plus receiving yards in three of his last four games.

My Picks:

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Sides:

  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight games and are 3-4 ATS this season.
  • The Texans are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as favorites (5-10 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Eleven of their last 14 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Houston is just 13-11 against the spread over its last 24 games.
  • Houston is 2-4 as road favorites. 5-9-1 ATS as a favorite (31%).
  • The Texans have lost each of their last 10 road games against NFC opponents.
  • HOU, as a road underdog, is 10-4-1 ATS and as home favorites, 3-4-1 ATS (43%).
  • The Texans have won each of their last five home games.
  • The favorites have won 16 of the Colts' last 19 games.
  • The Colts are 2-1 ATS as favorites this season and more than 70% ATS as an underdog (2-2 overall).
  • The Colts are 8-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games against the Texans.

Totals:

  • The Texans have gone under in 16 of their last 26 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Houston is 2-5 O/U this season. Five of the Texans' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line. 0-3 O/U at home.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, each of the Texans’ last six games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the last nine Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Colts' last 10 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only twice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (eight starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • With Richardson at QB this season, the Colts are 1-3 toward the over this season (three straight unders).

Overall:

Every game played in Houston this season has finished the projected game total. 3-0 toward the under, with teams averaging fewer than 40 points per game. Each of the Texans’ last six games as home favorites has gone UNDER the total points line.

Not picking sides here in a Week 1 rematch divisional matchup.

I think the total is way too high. Yes, the game went over 50 points the last time these teams played, but each offense was at full strength. This is not the case in Week 8.

The Texans should win (7-1 as home favorites), but I'm terrified of a backdoor cover. Houston's defense is good, ranking inside the top 5 in the fewest yards per play allowed (4.8).

Props:

Tank Dell saw six targets, including penalties, but goose-egged. Woof. Dell saw two red zone targets but failed to convert either into a catch with 45 air yards, 32.85% air yards share, and 21.05% Target share. Buy low. He still sees a massive target share in the offense without Nico Collins.

My Picks:

Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions

Sides

  • The Lions are 18-8 ATS as favorites. They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 14-6 ATS over their last 20 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Lions have won their last 12 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have won 10 of their last 12 home games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Titans are 5-7 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 11 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Titans have won the first half in seven of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • The Titans have scored first in each of their last four games as underdogs.
  • The Titans have lost 12 of their last 14 road games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Titans, as road underdogs, are 7-8-1 ATS (47%).

Totals

  • Twelve of the Lions' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Lions' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The average total in the Lions' last 22 home games has been 54 points; 72 percent (16/22) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Six of the Lions' last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Titans are 13-9-1 toward the under in their last 23 games.
  • Four of the Titans’ last five games against NFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

I'm not sure we have more of a lop-sided matchup this week. And the betting market agrees, given the massive 11.5 point spread for the Lions at home. But it's deservedly so, given the state of these respective franchises.

The Titans made the switch to Mason Rudolph last week at quarterback, and they looked solid to start against Buffalo. They jumped out 10-0, but the Bills scored 34 unanswered points, and the game crumbled.

The Titans have an underrated defense and a pretty good run game behind Tony Pollard. But they are at such a massive quarterback disadvantage.

If I had to pick a side, I'd lay the points with the ATS champion Lions. But I'd rather bet the under on the game total at 45.

Tennessee and Detroit are a matchup between two teams tied for the seventh-best in EPA/play allowed on defense this season.

The Titans pass defense that ranks 17th in EPA/pass attempt and eighth in fewest yards per pass attempt faced this season.

The Titans' defense is also capable against the run-league-high run stuff rate of 29.2%.

Per Next Gen Stats, Jared Goff has used play action on a league-high 35.2% of his dropbacks this season, completing 48 of his 63 such attempts for 708 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.

Goff has also recorded +27.4 EPA (1st in NFL) and a +6.3% completion percentage over expected (5th) on play-action dropbacks this season. Opposing quarterbacks have recorded league lows in EPA (-22.2) and CPOE (-19.1%) on play-action dropbacks against the Titans this season.

I know that Ford Field is the home to the over in NFL betting, but this isn't the spot. We've already seen two games in Detroit finish with 46 points or fewer this season. And those were against much better offenses than the Titans.

Props:

Just wait for the Tyler Boyd receiving props to drop. Boyd caught all five of his targets for 43 yards, averaging 8.6 yards per reception, with a long of 12 yards. Boyd caught both of his two red zone targets. His most productive game as a Titan came with Rudolph as the quarterback in Week 7. No team has allowed more fantasy points to slot WRs than the Lions this season.

Per Next Gen Stats, despite being contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 56.4% of his carries this season (2nd-highest among RB, min. 50 carries), Tony Pollard has averaged 4.2 yards after contact per carry, 3rd-most. The Lions’ defense has allowed the second-fewest yards after contact per carry to running backs (2.5) this season, allowing opposing running backs to register just 22 missed tackles forced (tied for the fewest in the NFL).

My Picks:

  • Lions -11.5
  • Under 45

Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins

Sides:

  • The Dolphins have lost eight of their last nine games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • Miami is below 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 2-7 overall since 2023.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted back to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots/Colts, they came back from first-half deficits.
  • The Dolphins have lost their last 10 road games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 13 of their last 14 games as underdogs.
  • The Dolphins have won 20 of their last 26 home games.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins have covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in six of their last nine games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last seven road games.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last 10 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals have lost each of their last 12 games following a win. Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona does not have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with their last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13, 2021.

Totals:

  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the Dolphins' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Miami is 1-2 toward the over at home this season (40.3 points per game).
  • Five of the Dolphins’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine since the start of 2023 on the road (3-7-1).
  • Nine of the Cardinals' last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line (2-2 O/U) this season, averaging less than 46 points per game.

Overall:

I don't think we need to overthink this one. The Dolphins are back at home against a team with a losing record. QB1 Tua Tagovailoa is back in the starting lineup. We all know how bad the offense was without Tagovailoa in the past five games. So, there's not much we can take from Miami's offensive sample size this year aside from projecting them for a major offensive boost.

And I think the impact will be paramount for Miami. They know they can win with their starting quarterback, which should inspire both the offense and defense.

And to give Miami some credit, they did get the rushing attack going last week with De'Von Achane.

This should continue against Arizona, who ranks eighth-worst in rushing EPA/attempt faced.

Defensively, Miami stacks up pretty well in the advanced metrics, but they have had a pretty soft schedule of quarterbacks to play against between the Titans, Patriots, and Colts. They have allowed just three passing TDs all season.

It's not an elite defense by any means, but it's not a matchup you'd expect a lackluster Cardinals passing attack to start firing. Per Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins’ defense has generated a league-leading 43.6% pressure rate this season, including the quickest average time to pressure (2.46 seconds).

The Dolphins have also registered the 4th-highest pressure rate (38.3%) when rushing with four or fewer defenders. Kyler Murray has averaged 4.9 yards per attempt while under pressure this season, the seventh-fewest among qualified quarterbacks. In contrast, Murray has averaged 7.3 yards per attempt when not pressured, close to the league average (7.5).

It's a much better spot for Arizona to run the ball behind James Conner. Miami is tied with Dallas for allowing the league's highest explosive rush rate this season. The Cardinals' strength is their ground game. Arizona is 4-1 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season.

Still, this game comes back to how well Tagovailoa can play. Given the matchup, he should help deliver a big win for the Dolphins.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins passing offense has generated the fourth-fewest EPA per dropback (-0.26) this season after using four different quarterbacks due to injuries. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed the third-highest EPA per dropback (+0.17) to opposing quarterbacks this season.

The chunk plays downfield have been non-existent. That trend won't last.

If there was less "uncertainty" about Tagovailoa this spread wouldn't be nearly as low. But if he's out there playing, I'm not expecting much, if any, type of falloff from his typical production.

I'll take Miami -4.5.

I'm more on the fence regarding the total.  Trends point to under, but if Miami's offense pops off, we might be left holding back. Back the Phins laying the field goal.

Props:

Jaylen Waddle has surprisingly gone over his receiving yards prop in half of his games this season despite playing with backup quarterbacks in his last five games. He has played one full game with Tua Tagovailoa this year, generating 100-plus yards. In Waddle’s last 11 games with Tua, he has surpassed 50.5 receiving yards in eight games (73%).

My Picks:

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Sides:

  • The Patriots have lost each of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
  • The Patriots have lost eight of their last nine games.
  • In each of the Patriots’ last six games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 18 games. 2-5 ATS this season
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games against teams with winning records.

Totals:

  • Eight of the last 12 Patriots' games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • The Patriots' defense has allowed 300-plus yards in five of seven games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • New England is 12-12 toward the under in their last 24 games. 3-4 this season.
  • Thirteen of the Jets’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the last five games between the Jets and Patriots has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

No number or trend suggests backing the Patriots at home. As home underdogs, the Pats are 1-9-1 ATS in their last contests. The Jets aren't much better as road favorites (2-3-1), but it's still better. And we know which team is better (at least theoretically).

I've backed the Pats with the points the last two weeks to no avail. Rookie Drake Maye's impressed but remains winless straight up and against the spread.

Meanwhile, the Jets seem like a team that is "due" for a win each week.

They were favored on the road against the Steelers and lost after going into the second half with a lead.

Both teams are spiraling. But the Jets need this so much more. New England was supposed to be bad this season, and they are. But Maye looks like he can be a franchise quarterback, which is all that anyone in New England should care about. And this so-called New England defense isn't just soft. It's bad.

They can't stop the run or pass, quite frankly. They are eighth in yards per game and per play allowed.

New York's offense carved up the Patriots without Davante Adams back in Week 3 to the tune of 400 yards of total offense and 24 points (tying a season-high).

The Jets need to get going on offense, and New England is the punching bag they need to do so.

Still, seven points on the road is a lot for Gang Green against an AFC East opponent.

If anything, I'd bet the over on this game total that is suspiciously low at 40.5 points. Patriots games the last two weeks have flown way over the total with games finishing at 62 and 48 points.

Maye's big-play ability and turnover-worthy proneness - five turnover-worthy plays in the last two games - will help this game score points.

Per Next Gen Stats, The Jets defense has blitzed on 37.7% of opposing dropbacks since Jeff Ulbrich took over as head coach in Week 6, 9th-highest in the NFL over that span and a 9.0% increase from their blitz rate through the first five weeks under Robert Saleh. Despite the increase in blitzes, the Jets pressure rate has actually dropped from 40.1% (3rd-highest) to 37.7% (14th) under Ulbrich, including a 30.4% pressure rate when blitzing (7th-lowest in the NFL). The Patriots have allowed a league-high 46.5% pressure rate this season, including a 58.0% pressure rate when getting blitzed (2nd-highest in the NFL).

Pressure from blitzes is going to lead to big plays (either offensively or defensively).

And Maye won't be afraid to attack downfield. Per Next Gen Stats, Maye has attempted a downfield (10+ air yards) pass on 28.2% of his pass attempts this season, completing 10 of his 22 such attempts for 233 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception.

Only the Ravens have faced more deep-ball attempts than the Jets this season.

Consider that New England should also be able to establish the run against New York, it's just another reason to back the over. Games in New England have averaged 43.3 points (2-1 O/U).

Props:

Christian Gonzalez has faced Garrett Wilson twice over the past two seasons, allowing seven receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets across the two matchups.

In their Week 3 matchup earlier this season, Wilson was targeted on eight of his nine matchups with Gonzalez, recording four receptions for 25 yards and a touchdown.

Demario Douglas only played one snap in the second half of last week’s game. He ran a route on 24% of dropbacks and was targeted on 30% of his routes run. Pain.

He was dealing with an illness and finished with just two catches for 14 yards on three targets (two of which came on the first drive of the game). But he also left the game after getting a false start penalty. Presuming he is healthy, he is still the WR1 on the Patriots depth chart. Take the over on his receptions. Five of the last six most comparable WRs to Douglas have gone OVER their receptions prop against the Jets this season.

My Picks:

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sides:

  • The Buccaneers have won six of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • But they are just 3-4 ATS as home underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games.
  • The Buccaneers have won each of their last five games following a loss.
  • Tampa Bay is 6-2-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last nine games.
  • The underdogs have won seven of the last 14 Buccaneers' games.
  • The underdogs have won the first half in five of the Buccaneers' last six games.
  • The Buccaneers are 10-3 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in nine of their last 13 games as underdogs.
  • Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS against the NFC South, with the only "loss" against Atlanta in Week 5, which went into overtime.
  • The Falcons have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Buccaneers.
  • The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 9-5 as home favorites on the money line.
  • The Falcons are 8-14-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 7-6 straight up.
  • However, the underdogs have won 11 of the Falcons' last 19 games.
  • The Falcons are 4-5 ATS on the road, 2-4 ATS as road favorites, and 5-12 ATS on the road straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have won four of their last six games.
  • Atlanta is 9-5 on the money line as home favorites (14-9 at home overall).
  • The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 5-9 ATS.
  • The Falcons have won six of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.

Totals:

  • Each of the Buccaneers’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is 5-2 O/U this season (3-1 at home, averaging 52.3 points per game).
  • On defense, they have allowed the 22nd most points per game (24.1).
  • Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 40 points total at home since 2023 (4-8 record toward the over).
  • Atlanta is 2-3 towards the over this season at home, averaging just under 46 points per game.
  • The Falcons are 3-4 O/U this season.
  • Five of the Falcons' last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Atlanta is 1-1 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging 50.5 points.

Overall:

Not often do we see a Baker Mayfield-led squad catching points at home. But we all know why the lines flipped from Tampa Bay -2.5 to Atlanta -2.5 after Monday Night Football. The Buccaneers lost their two top WRs, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But they also lost cornerback Jamel Dean.

Still, I can't help but think this is a major overreaction by the betting market. It's a five-point swing, which is typically the only kind of movement if there is an injury to a quarterback.

On a short week, Tampa Bay is facing an uphill battle without its top two receivers. But it still has its quarterback, who often thrives in this underdog situation. I also want to note that the Buccaneers suffered a myriad of defensive injuries before their Week 2 matchup at Detroit. They won outright on the road.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have played the majority of their games at home. They have only played two road games against Philadelphia and Carolina. They should have lost to the Eagles, and Carolina was a one-score game entering the fourth quarter.

The Falcons’ defense can't be trusted even against a depleted Buccaneers WR room.

Tampa Bay can also choose to run the ball more against the Falcons, which they did effectively in Week 5. They rushed for 160 yards at over six yards per carry, fourth in rushing yards above expectation.

Atlanta has been horrible defending lightbox fronts (5th-most yards allowed), using its defense in that formation at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL.

The Falcons are also bad against rushing inside the tackles (29th in EPA/rush and 31st in rushing yards allowed per game). Rachaad White is averaging 5.2 yards per carry against inside tackles this season.

White has also averaged 5.4 yards per carry over his last three games, hitting a season-high against the Falcons back in Week 5 (72 rushing yards).  Bucky Irving is not expected to play, setting the stage for White to be a focal point of the Buccaneers offense. Every running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus yards).

Given the WR injuries, it would make sense for them to lean more on the surplus of RBs they have. When they throw, Mayfield should have ample time to dissect the Falcons secondary.

Per Next Gen Stats, Mayfield leads the NFL in touchdown passes (16) and interceptions (7) when not under pressure this season. The Falcons’ defense doesn't generate pressure, but it has been able to keep offenses in front of it, with the sixth-lowest air yards per attempt faced and seventh-fewest yards after the catch.

The Buccaneers will have to grind this game out rather than win in high-flying fashion. Note that the Falcons are solid at defending the short-quick passing game (7th-lowest EPA/pass attempt) but have struggled against long and intermediate throws. That is not necessarily an advantage for Mayfield, who has been at his best in ripping the ball underneath. I don't think we see a lot of explosive passing plays from Tampa Bay.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers have generated a league-high +238 yards after the catch over expected (YACOE) this season (1,188 actual yards after the catch, 1st).

Chris Godwin had accounted for +112 of the Buccaneers +238 total YACOE (47.0%). Rachaad White is the only other Buccaneers receiver to have generated more than +50 YACOE this season. The Falcons’ defense has allowed a league-low 4.1 yards after the catch per reception this season, half a yard fewer than the next closest defense (Broncos, 4.7). The Falcons (-6) and Bears (-8) are the only defenses to have allowed fewer yards after the catch than expected this season.

White has the 7th-highest running back target share this season.

We saw Atlanta's passing offense succeed in this matchup back in Week 5, but they only posted a +3 pass rate over expectation. The last two weeks, it's been more rushing with a 5% pass rate over expectation. I just want to caution those expecting Cousins to drop another 500 passing yards in this matchup. I still think, at their core, the Falcons want to run the ball, and that means I lean toward betting the under at 46.5 points.

Note that this Week 5 matchup closed at 44 points when both teams were healthier playing indoors.

Give me the Buccaneers as an underdog, and the under on NFC South rematch. In-season divisional rematches don’t often live up to the hype compared to the first matchups. Trust the process.

Props:

Per Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers’ defense has stacked the box (8+ defenders) on a league-high 36.7% of their designed runs faced this season.

The Buccaneers have also allowed a league-high +156 rushing yards over expected on designed runs when stacking the box (324 actual yards). Tyler Allgeier (10.7%) and Bijan Robinson (12.6%) have faced a stacked box at the 5th-lowest and 8th-lowest rates this season, respectively, among 53 running backs with at least 35 carries.

Tyler Allgeier (50.0%) and Bijan Robinson (49.0%) rank 2nd and 3rd, respectively, by highest success rate on carries directed outside the tackles to the weak side of the formation this season among 20 running backs with at least 15 such carries this season (Alvin Kamara, 64.5%).

Allgeier has gained more yards than expected on 70.0% of his carries outside the tackles to the weak side, the highest rate among the same group of 20 running backs. Robinson's 51 such carries are 15 more than the next closest player (Jordan Mason, 36). Robinson gained 44 yards, including +28 yards over expected, on five such carries in Week 5 against the Buccaneers (8.8 YPC).

Sterling Shepard (60.7%), Jalen McMillan (43.5%), and Trey Palmer (54.5%) each had vertical routes account for more than 40% of their total routes run this season.

Shepard's 60.7% vertical route rate is the highest among all wide receivers, with at least 100 routes run (next closest: Tyreek Hill, 55.3%). Shepard, McMillan, and Palmer have combined for just two receptions on 10 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown across their 151 collective vertical routes run this season.

My Picks:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sides:

  • The Bengals are 14-6 ATS on the road.
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with losing records.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games against AFC North opponents.
  • The Bengals have won 13 of their last 19 home games.
  • The Bengals are 9-6-1 ATS as home favorites and 12-6 straight up at home.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last eight games as favorites.
  • The Eagles are 4-11-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • But at home in their last 21 games - 13-8 ATS as home favorites.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last seven road games.
  • Philadelphia ATS on the road: 5-12-1 (29%).

Totals:

  • Four of the Bengals' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bengals' last 10 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bengals' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line
  • The Eagles are 11-13 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 4-10 toward the over on the road.
  • Seven of the Eagles' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 7-3 toward the OVER at home since start of 2023

Overall:

During the preseason, we would have viewed Bengals-Eagles as a potential Super Bowl matchup. Both teams haven't lived up to expectations thus far, which is why this matchup is so fascinating.

What stands out to me the most is just how bad the Eagles have been against the number playing on the road. 5-12-1 (29%). Woof.

Meanwhile, Cincy has tended to play well in front of the home crowd.

We know that both these offenses have firepower. BettingPros Terrell Furman suggested as much on this week's NFL Week 8 Best Bets on BettingPros, where he took over at 47.5 points.

Will I tail? Keep reading. Just kidding. Of course, I'm chasing the over here.

But I'm not convinced that it's the best bet in this contest. The Eagles’ underwhelming performances on the road have been reflective more on offense. Seven of the Eagles' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line. Philly also boasts the second-best red zone defense.

And as easy as it once was to slice the Bengals’ defense like a hot knife through butter, they've gotten much healthier on the defensive line. That should help "slow down" Saquon Barkley. The Bengals defense has been a sure-tackling unit this year. Per Next Gen Stats, the Bengals have missed a tackle on just 10.1% of their tackle opportunities this season, the lowest missed tackle rate in the NFL.

But aside from that...the defense still might struggle overall, given they won't be facing Deshaun Watson/Daniel Jones this week.

There's no denying that skill position players on both sides of the ball can take over this game, hence my hesitance to bet the under. It also scares me because both teams are coming off unders in the divisional matchup (which typically tend to be more tight contests, given the familiarity).

Scared money doesn't make money.

I'll tail the over and take the Bengals -2.5. I think the Bengals will get out of their two-game offensive funk against an Eagles defense that has struggled to generate consistent pressure. Per Next Gen Stats, The Eagles have generated pressure on just 31.6% of dropbacks this season, their lowest pressure rate as a team over the last seven seasons and the 13th-lowest in the NFL.

Props:

DeVonta Smith BOMBED last week. But it was in a game where the Eagles barely threw the ball. Jalen Hurts attempted 14 passes-his lowest attempt total since 2021. Last week was a glaring outlier, so go right back to the Smith receiving props. No defense has faced more targets to No. 2 WRs than the Bengals this season.

Before last week, Smith had gone over 57.5 receiving yards in every single game this season (four games). Smith also went over 57.5 receiving yards in every game that Dallas Goedert missed in 2023.

BUY THE DIP.

My Picks:

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sides:

  • The Chargers are 3-3 ATS this season.
  • The Chargers have scored first in each of their last five games.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in five of the Chargers’ last six games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last nine games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games as road underdogs.
  • In eight of the Saints' last 10 games against AFC opponents, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Saints have lost each of their last five games.
  • The Saints are 2-6 ATS as home underdogs (7-14 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 1-7 straight up. Woof.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Chargers' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seventeen of the Chargers' last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 5-1 toward the under this season.
  • Nine of the Chargers' last 11 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Chargers' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers have faced the second-fewest red-zone scores per game this season (0.8).
  • Seven of the Saints' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line
  • The Saints have the third-best red-zone defense in the NFL (38% conversion rate).

Overall:

When these lines first dropped, I was immediately drawn to the under. I wish that I had been more patient.  After opening closer to 39.5, it's been bet up to 41 based on how bad the Saints’ defense has played. But keep in mind that New Orleans is playing with four more additional days of rest after playing on Thursday of Week 7. LA is coming off a late Monday night game on the road.

Ultimately, I expect the Chargers to take care of business, given the massive coaching mismatch and their advantages running the ball against an atrocious Saints run defense.

However, a seven-point spread has me hesitant to bet on the Chargers at "home." I’d rather just bet the game total under. I don't have much confidence in the Saints’ offense moving the ball against the Bolts’ defense that ranks 5th in the fewest EPA/play allowed this season.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Chargers have fared well against the run, generating a 64.7% defensive success rate while facing a blocking disadvantage (7th-highest in the NFL). The Saints have totaled 518 yards on 134 carries with a blocking advantage this season, recording the third-fewest yards per carry (3.9) and rushing yards over expected (-43).

Other than some QB scrambles from Spencer Rattler, New Orleans will have issues offensively. We might see them pound the rock against LA's lighter boxes. Kendre Miller (8.3), Taysom Hill (7.8), and Alvin Kamara (5.7) have strong yards per carry numbers against fewer defenders in the box.

I also don't believe the Chargers have the requisite firepower to put this game over the total by themselves. Their most aggressive aerial attack last week translated into 15 points on the board despite nearly 350 passing yards from quarterback Justin Herbert.

Props:

Chris Olave has recorded a 25.9% target rate when facing off coverage (5+ yards) this season, 10.5% higher than his target rate when seeing less than 5 yards of cushion.

Olave has recorded 18 receptions for 234 yards and a touchdown on 21 targets against off-coverage this season, generating +0.9 EPA per target (4th-most among wide receivers with at least 10 targets). The Chargers corners have played off coverage at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (76.5%). As a result, the Chargers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest yards per attempt on passes underneath 10 air yards this season (4.9).

Even though I anticipate a strong rushing effort from the Chargers, I don’t think they will completely abandon the passing game. Since returning from the bye week, LA has posted a +7% pass rate over expectation, compared to the -11% rate in Weeks 1-5. Herbert’s passing yards prop is a low bar to pass (pun intended) set at a measly 203.5 passing yards. The BettingPros projections have him close to 218.5 passing yards and 235.7 passing yards on NFL Pro. The only QBs who haven’t passed for 200 yards against the Saints this season are Bryce Young and Bo Nix.

My Picks:

Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 18 of the Seahawks' last 22 games.
  • Seattle is 6-12-1 ATS in their last 19 games played (5-9-1 over the last 13 games).
  • Seattle is 10-3 as a favorite in the last 13 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 4-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 11 games.
  • Seattle is 4-3 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in five of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • Seattle is the road underdog ATS at 7-8 (45%). As away underdogs on the money line, they are 4-11.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in six of the Seahawks’ last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Bills have won 11 of their last 14 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in six of their last nine games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 15-6 as a favorite since the start of last season. But they are just 10-11 ATS as a favorite.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 22 games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Bills have won each of their last 12 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Bills are 11-2 and 7-6 ATS at home since the start of 2023.
  • Bills are 6-6- ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have won seven of their last eight games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Five of the Seahawks' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks' last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Bills’ last six home games has gone OVER the total points line. They were 3-0 toward the over this season.
  • Five of the Bills’ last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bills’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line. (15 of their last 20 road games per Covers.com)
  • Each of the Bills’ last six games as favorites has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Seattle finds themselves as three-point underdogs at home against the Buffalo Bills in Week 8. Both teams are coming off wins, so there's optimism on both sides.

However, I am skeptical of the Seahawks after they beat the Falcons. They have faced an easy schedule for quarterbacks and have struggled against better competition. The defense has allowed 350-plus yards of offense through four straight games. The run defense has struggled, and they have had injuries to their cornerbacks in their secondary.

Seattle has been terrible against the number all season, with a 2-4-1 ATS record.

Per Next Gen Stats, Josh Allen has generated a league-high +32.1 EPA on quick passes this season, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt (3rd-most in the NFL).

The Bills have leaned on the quick game on first and second down, with Allen averaging his quickest time to throw of his career on early downs by 0.18 seconds this season (2.56 seconds, 4th-quickest in NFL). The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most EPA per dropback (+0.20) and the sixth-highest success rate (55.2%) against quick passes this season.

This is a good spot for the Bills offense through the air and the ground. Seattle is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game this season. Allen should be able to dissect this defense with quick and short passes to move the chains.

Seattle's offense could also rely on the ground game against the Bills.

Buffalo's run defense ranks 29th in yards per carry faced this season. Per Next Gen Stats, Kenneth Walker has averaged 5.2 yards per carry on shotgun runs compared to 4.1 yards per carry on under center runs this season.

Walker has exceeded 15+ MPH on more than double the number of carries from a shotgun (9) than on carries from under center (4) this season despite a near-equal number of opportunities (33 shotgun carries; 32 under-center carries). Walker has averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry on under-center runs, the fewest among 39 running backs with at least 25 carries. The Bills defense has surrendered the 2nd-most yards per carry (5.9) to shotgun runs and the 5th-fewest yards per carry (3.6) to under center runs this season.

I don't think that Seattle totally abandons the passing attack, though. They have ranked too high in pass rate over expectation this season to abandon their identity completely. Even without a healthy DK Metcalf, we should see them throw at a decent clip, especially if they are trailing as underdogs in this contest.

I was all over the "over" in Falcons-Seahawks last week, and the total fell just short. The 46.5-point total lines up with my projection, so I don't see much value in the play. Given the Bills games, I would lean toward a slight over, as favorites have gone over as of late, with Seattle going over in three of their last four (5-2 O/U record this season).

I'd rather just back the Bills as small road favorites.

Props:

Geno Smith has attempted the second-most quick passes (139) behind only Aaron Rodgers (140) but is one of three qualified quarterbacks to have not thrown a touchdown on a quick pass this season (Bo Nix & Anthony Richardson).

Of Smith's 139 quick passes, 7.9% have resulted in an explosive play (15+ yards), the 11th-lowest rate in the NFL. The Bills defense has allowed 14 explosive plays on quick passes this season, tied for the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Kenneth Walker III has over 25.5 receiving yards in 3 of 4 games since returning from injury. The Bills defense is allowing the second-most yards, second-most catches and most targets to RBs in the passing game this season.

My Picks:

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders

Sides:

  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 13 games. They are 5-1 ATS and straight up in their last six games.
  • The Commanders have lost seven of their last 10 home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • Chicago is 6-3-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
  • The Bears have won each of their last eight home games.
  • The Bears have lost seven of their last eight road games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in nine of the Bears’ last 11 games.
  • The Bears are 9-4-1 ATS and 9-5 straight up in their last 14 games.
  • In each of the Bears' last six games, their opponents have scored first.
  • Chicago is 4-0 at home/neutral fields and 0-2 on the road.

Totals:

  • Four of the Commanders’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Commanders’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 5-3 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 13-3 toward the OVER.
  • The Bears have a 23-point implied team total.
  • Six of the Bears’ last seven games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Bears’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Bears’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 7-4-1 toward the under in their last 12 games.
  • Ten of the Bears’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 1-2 toward the over in their two road/London games this season.

Overall:

I talked about betting on the Chicago Bears in this week's Early Line Lookahead Show for NFL Week 8 because I was under the impression that Jayden Daniels would not suit up for the Commanders. However, it's currently trending that Daniels might play, according to Adam Schefter.

I bet the Bears at +1.5 when they were still underdogs, so I am likely not doubling down with lines moved to Chicago -2.5 on the road.

The Bears have been a great bet as a favorite (8-2 straight up), whereas Washington projects to regress back closer to their 2023 form either without their star rookie quarterback or with him banged up.

Chicago is coming off a bye week and has the superior defense. It is second overall against EPA/pass play and 14th in EPA/rush allowed.

Sure, the Commanders will look to the ground game to alleviate Daniels’ injury, but the Bears’ defense should be up to the task.

The Bears offense also has advantages against the Commanders. Per Next Gen Stats, Caleb Williams has averaged a 2.80 second time to throw this season (13th-slowest in NFL), recording a time to throw under 2.5 seconds just 46.7% of the time (13th-highest).

However, when throwing quick passes, Williams has completed 75 of his 93 attempts for 550 yards and four touchdowns, generating +20.7 EPA (the sixth-most in the NFL). Matchup: Opposing quarterbacks have recorded a 114.0 passer rating on quick passes against the Commanders this season, the second-highest in the NFL.

When it comes to game total, I very much like the under at 44.5 points. Because even though I like the Bears offense, I don't think this is an eruption spot. As noted last week, the Commanders’ defense at home ranks second in the fewest passing yards allowed per game. And I don't want to overlook Kliff Kingsbury and his familiarity with Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. When Washington played the Cardinals earlier this season, Kyler Murray looked lost. I'm sure Kingsbury's knowledge of Murray helped Washington prepare defensively, and I would presume they can do something similar at home in Week 8.

Instead of getting a shootout between this year's first and second overall picks, I'm projecting more of a slog, with the Bears winning ugly as the clock hits zero.

Props:

Chicago's run game has also come alive in recent weeks, and that should continue against the Commanders. D’Andre Swift has surpassed his rushing yards projection in three straight games, with at least 73 yards in each contest. Fresh off the bye week, he should continue to see opportunities. Six of the last seven RBs that Washington has faced have gone over their rushing yards projection this season. The projections have Swift closer to 63 rushing yards for Week 8.

My Picks:

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos

Sides:

  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Panthers have lost 15 of their last 17 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 15 of their last 16 games against NFC opponents.
  • Rookie QBs are a combined 15-9 ATS this season.
  • The Broncos are 6-6 ATS on the road dating back to 2023 (4-2 ATS last five road games).

Totals:

  • The Broncos rank first in red zone defense.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • Each of the Broncos’ last three games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Broncos’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Broncos’ last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Broncos' last six road games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Denver is 2-1 O/U at home this season. Averaging 36.7 points per game.
  • Ten of the Panthers’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Panthers’ last 12 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Worst game of the week? Might be.

After opening as "just" 7.5-point favorites, the numbers have jumped to a 11-point spread after the announcement of Bryce Young as the starter. WOOF. It was a tough draw for the second-year quarterback, starting his first game after being benched against the league's best defense on the road. DOUBLE WOOF.

I cannot in good conscience take Bo Nix laying eleven points in an NFL football game. Denver is 4-7 ATS as home favorites.  Nix makes too many mistakes. I think Sean Payton can just run the ball 30-plus times and win the game with a conservative approach. Hence, my initial stance away from the Broncos ATS.

That being said, I'm practicing resistance by refusing to spend money on the Panthers in any capacity. 2-7-1 ATS on the road for the Panthers. Young has a career 29% record ATS. He has covered five games in the NFL. That's the same as Nix, despite 12 fewer games played.

And FWIW, Nix is 2-0 ATS as a favorite.

As I write this, I might be coming around to laying the points with Denver. What has this world come to? Again, if the Panthers can't score any points...eleven points still won't help them, considering they allow nearly 35 points per game on defense.

But all in all, I think the safest bet in this gross game is just betting the under-essentially a bet against both quarterbacks and offensive teams.

Both teams want to run the football to hide their mistake-prone QBs. Smells like an under to me.

Props:

No quarterback who has played the Panthers this season has surpassed their passing attempts projection. Only twice has a quarterback gone for 30-plus (Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins). Nix has under 28.5 pass attempts in three of his last four games (27.5 average) and is 2-0 toward the under in the Broncos’ two games as favorites this season.

My Picks:

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 12 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 13 of the Chiefs' last 19 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last six road games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in six of the Chiefs’ last seven games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games.
  • The Raiders are 11-5-1 ATS over their last 17 games.
  • LV is 12-6-1 ATS at home (67%). They are 4-3-1 as home underdogs ATS. But just 2-5 straight up.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last seven road games.
  • The Raiders have lost nine of their last 11 road games.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Chiefs' last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of the last 15).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them.
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
  • KC is 2-1 toward the over at home this season.
  • 10 of the Raiders' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line and 14-9 toward the under.
  • Five of the Raiders' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Four of the Raiders’ last five home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

LV is 12-6-1 ATS at home (67%) and 4-3-1 as home underdogs. The Raiders are 9.5 point underdogs against the Chiefs. Trust the process. Recall that the Raiders beat the Chiefs outright last season on the road on Christmas. KC was double-digit favorites in both games against the Raiders last season despite outscoring them just 45 to 37 in the two matchups. The Raiders were either tied or beating KC at halftime in both games.

Gardner Minshew's 3-3 ATS this season, while boasting a 2-0 record ATS on the road as an underdog by a touchdown or more. The Raiders aren't great, but they aren't getting nearly enough respect after they stayed competitive with the Rams a week ago.

Simply put, it's just too many points to pass on for a road divisional matchup against a Chiefs offense that ranks outside the top 12 in points per game.

Props:

Alexander Mattison led the ground game with 23 carries for 92 yards, averaging 4.0 yards per carry with a long of 13 yards in Week 7.  Zamir White chipped in three carries for 13 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Mattison dominated with a 70% snap rate. The Raiders have a new RB1 with a healthy White buried behind Mattison on the depth chart. But Mattison draws a brutal matchup this week against the Chiefs. Only one RB they have faced this season has surpassed their rushing yards total. KC’s defense is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game this season.

My Picks:

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