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NFL Week 8 Composite Power Ratings (2023)

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Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.

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    Week 8 NFL Composite Power Ratings

    • The biggest riser this week is the Baltimore Ravens, and rightfully so. Baltimore put a smackdown on a fellow top-10-rated team in the Detroit Lions. Baltimore is now a top-two-rated team in both the Massey-Peabody and the nERD ratings.
    • Minnesota was another big riser following an upset win over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. With five division games left and only two games back of the NFC-North-leading Detroit Lions, the Vikings are firmly in contention for at least a wild card spot, if not a division title.

    Week 8 Matchups

    • It’s very important to keep in mind that these ratings do not account for injuries (specifically quarterback injuries). That is the primary reason why you’re seeing such massive differences in the ratings-based spreads for the 49ers vs. Bengals and Titans vs. Falcons matchups as both Brock Purdy (concussion) and Ryan Tannehill (ankle) are not expected to play for their teams this Sunday.
    • One line that I’m still a little confused about is that of the Houston Texans vs. the Carolina Panthers. We get the first matchup (of hopefully many) between the number one and number two picks in this year’s draft, Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. At 3-3, the Texans have won three of their last four games, including two blowout victories against the Jaguars and Steelers as well as a very narrow two-point loss to the Atlanta Falcons. In that four-game stretch, Houston’s offense ranks 6th in EPA per play while their defense ranks in the top 10 in EPA per play allowed. Meanwhile, Carolina has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball, as they rank in the bottom eight in most efficiency metrics. Give me the better quarterback (Stroud) and the points.
    • There are two other matchups this week that are rematches of divisional games that have already been played once this season. The first is between the Commanders and Eagles, which the Eagles won in overtime 34 to 31. Washington has fallen off a cliff since then while Philadelphia had a statement win last week against the Miami Dolphins. The other is between the Broncos and Chiefs, which Kansas City won 19 to 8 on Thursday night of Week 6. With only one game in between these two games, the line is almost identical with Denver getting the points for home-field advantage. In both these cases, the ratings suggest the favorite should be even heavier favorites than the market says.

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