NFL Week 8 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

by Austin MacMillan |
Oct 24, 2023

Here is an early look at NFL Week 8 odds and trends:

NFL Week 8 Early Odds & Trends

Buccaneers @ Bills - Thursday, Oct. 26 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - BUF -8.5; O/U 42.5

Buccaneers trends:

Previous 10 non-conference games: 3-7 ATS
Previous 15 games following a loss: 3-11-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 5-14-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 8-12 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Todd Bowles as an underdog (Career): 20-28-3 ATS

Bills trends:

Previous 11 games following a loss: 6-3-2 ATS
Previous 30 games as a favorite: 18-12 to the Under
Josh Allen ATS (Career): 48-39-3 ATS
Sean McDermott as a favorite (Career): 34-26-4 ATS

Best bet: Bills -8.5

An astonishing 75% of Buffalo's wins have come by 28+ points this season, with two of those wins coming against far inferior teams in the Raiders and Commanders. I think the Buccaneers are comparable to the talent level of those teams. I see this as a great bounce-back spot for an angry Bills team against a Buccaneers team that will have less time to prepare on the short week.

Falcons @ Titans - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - ATL -2.0; O/U 37.0

Falcons trends:

Previous 10 road games: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 3-7 ATS
Previous 12 non-conference games: 4-7-1 ATS
Previous 16 games following a win: 4-11-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-13 ATS; 15-5 to the Under

Titans trends:

Previous 8 games with rest advantage: 5-3 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 15-5 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 13-7 ATS
Previous 30 games: 22-8 to the Under
Mike Vrabel as an underdog (Career): 26-17-1 ATS

Best bet: Titans +2.0

This spot has been a cash cow for Mike Vrabel backers over the course of his career, and there's no way I'm trusting Desmond Ridder to get road covers in back-to-back weeks.

Rams @ Cowboys - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DAL -6.5; O/U 45.5

Rams trends:

Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS; 6-3-1 to the Under
Previous 10 road games: 3-5-2 ATS; 7-2-1 to the Under
Previous 19 games following a loss: 10-6-3 ATS
Previous 28 non-divisional games: 10-15-3 ATS

Cowboys trends:

Previous 10 games with rest advantage: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 13-7 to the Over
Previous 30 non-divisional games: 18-12 ATS

Best bet: Cowboys -6.5

The Week 7 bye, combined with the fact that Dallas has rolled their opponents in this spot in recent history, has me favoring them to cover this spread against a Rams team that just conceded 24 points to an anemic Steelers offense.

Vikings @ Packers - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - GB -2.5; O/U 43.0

Vikings trends:

Previous 6 games with rest disadvantage: 2-4 ATS
Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 1-8-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games @ Green Bay: 7-3 to the Over

Packers trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 3-7 ATS
Previous 14 divisional games: 8-6 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 12-8 ATS

Best bet: Packers -2.5

This is a great bounce-back opportunity for the Packers at home to cover under a field goal against a Vikings team that will be traveling on the road on a short week after a Monday night game with a physical 49ers team.

Patriots @ Dolphins - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - MIA -9.5; O/U 47.0

Patriots trends:

Previous 10 games: 2-8 ATS
Previous 10 games against Miami: 2-8
Previous 16 divisional games: 7-9 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 6-14 ATS
Mac Jones (Career): 17-23 ATS

Dolphins trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 15 divisional games: 10-4-1 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS
Tua Tagovailoa (Career): 25-16 ATS

Best bet: Patriots +9.5

Although Miami has dominated in spots like these in recent history, we saw the Patriots play them very well earlier in the season, employing an "umbrella" defense strategy to keep the Dolphinsâ€™ speedsters at bay. We also saw some encouraging signs from the Patriotsâ€™ offense against a tough Buffalo defense on Sunday. I'll take the points with New England and trust them to cover this two-possession spread.

Texans @ Panthers - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - HOU -3.0; O/U 43.0

Texans trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 2-7-1 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 12-7-1 ATS

Panthers trends:

Previous 10 games: 2-7-1 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 11 non-conference games: 4-7 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under

Best bet: Under 43.0

I find this total too high for two rookie QBs with two solid defenses in a spot where both teams have trended heavily toward the under.

Jets @ Giants - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - NYJ -3.0; O/U 36.5

Jets trends:

Previous 5 games with rest advantage: 1-5 ATS
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 12 non-conference games: 4-8 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under

Giants trends:

Previous 8 games with rest disadvantage: 5-3 ATS
Previous 12 non-conference games: 8-4 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Under
Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 12-6 ATS

Best bet: NYG +3.0

I love the Giants catching a field goal in a spot where they have been great as an underdog with Brian Daboll in an essentially neutral environment at MetLife Stadium.

Jaguars @ Steelers - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - JAC -2.5; O/U 42.0

Jaguars trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 6-3-1 to the Over
Previous 16 games following a win: 10-6 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 6-14 ATS

Steelers trends:

Previous 10 games with rest disadvantage: 4-6 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 13-6-1 to the Under
Kenny Pickett (Career): 12-6 ATS
Mike Tomlin as an underdog (Career): 55-28-3 ATS

Best bet: Steelers +2.5

I believe the saying goes, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Pittsburgh catching any points is an autoplay, especially at home against a Jaguars team riding high on a four-game-winning streak.

Saints @ Colts - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - IND -1.0; O/U 43.5

Saints trends:

Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 15-5 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 14-6 to the Under
Dennis Allen (Career): 23-34-2 ATS

Colts trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 2-8 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 3-7 ATS
Previous 21 games following a loss: 12-9 ATS
Gardner Minshew (Career): 12-16 ATS

Best bet: Under 43.5

Dennis Allen's Saints teams have heavily trended to the under during his tenure. "Checkdown Charlie" Derek Carr only supports that play by his inability to connect on downfield passes.

Eagles @ Commanders - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - PHI -6.5; O/U 43.5

Eagles trends:

Previous 5 games against Washington: 1-3-1 ATS
Previous 9 games: 6-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 14 divisional games: 5-8-1 ATS

Commanders trends:

Previous 14 divisional games: 5-8-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-6-1 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 7-12-1 ATS; 15-5 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-6-2 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 21 games following a loss: 9-11-1 ATS
Ron Rivera as an underdog (Career): 57-42-2 ATS

Best bet: Commanders +6.5

Ron Rivera's Commanders have surprisingly fared very well against this Eagles team in recent seasons despite the talent disparity. I'll take the points with Washington getting nearly a TD in this home divisional spot.

Browns @ Seahawks - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - SEA -3.0; O/U 40.0

Browns trends:

Previous 10 road games: 3-7 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 5-3-2 to the Under
Previous 17 games following a win: 4-13 ATS
Previous 20 games: 11-7-2 to the Under
Kevin Stefanski (Career): 24-31-1 ATS

Seahawks trends:

Previous 10 games: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 home games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 11 non-conference games: 7-4 ATS
Previous 18 games following a win: 7-11 ATS

Best bet: Under 40.0

The Seahawks have changed the perception of their team from a high-powered offense with optional defense to a well-rounded team that plays complementary football. Combine that with a Browns team that has one of the top defenses in the NFL, and I think we're in for a low-scoring affair in this one.

Ravens @ Cardinals - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - BAL -8.5; O/U 44.0

Ravens trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 11 non-conference games: 7-4 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 16-4 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 22 games following a win: 8-13-1 ATS

Cardinals trends:

Previous 11 non-conference games: 6-5 ATS
Previous 23 games following a loss: 12-11 ATS
Previous 30 games: 13-17 ATS
Previous 30 home games: 12-18 ATS; 17-12-1 to the Over

Best bet: Under 44.0

Though the Ravensâ€™ offense looked otherworldly against the Lions, scoring at will on Sunday, they tend to play down to lesser competition. I think Baltimore could be due for some scoring regression this week. I also don't find Arizona's offense being able to have much success against this stout Ravens defense.

Bengals @ 49ers - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - SF -5.5; O/U 45.5

Bengals trends:

Previous 7 games with rest advantage: 5-2 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 14 non-conference games: 9-4-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-5-1 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 14-6 ATS; 13-6-1 to the Under
Zac Taylor as an underdog (Career): 22-17 ATS

49ers trends:

Previous 9 games with rest disadvantage: 6-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS; 6-3-1 to the Over
Previous 10 home games: 8-2 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 12 non-conference games: 5-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
Brock Purdy (Career): 11-4 ATS

Best bet: Bengals +5.5

It's been a rare occasion to get Joe Burrow and the Bengals catching over a field goal in recent years. I'll take the points with them after resting and getting healthier on their bye week against this 49ers team that has looked pretty mortal against shorthanded offenses for the past two weeks.

Chiefs @ Broncos - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - KC -8.0; O/U 46.0

Chiefs trends:

Previous 6 games against Denver: 2-4 ATS
Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 13- 7 to the Over

Broncos trends:

Previous 10 games: 2-7-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 home games: 3-7 ATS
Previous 12 games following a win: 4-8 ATS
Previous 14 divisional games: 5-9 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under

Best bet: Broncos +8.o

Denver has kept these games close in recent years, and Patrick Mahomes' ATS% drops significantly when the spread rises over three points. I'll take Denver to cover this divisional matchup where theyâ€™re getting over a TD.

Bears @ Chargers - Sunday, Oct. 29 - 8:20 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - LAC -8.5; O/U 46.5

Bears trends:

Previous 10 games following a win: 2-8 ATS
Previous 20 games: 6-13-1 ATS; 15-5 to the Over
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 6-13-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 road games: 6-14 ATS; 13-7 to the Over

Chargers trends:

Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 5-3-2 to the Under
Previous 12 non-conference games: 7-5 ATS
Brandon Staley as a favorite (Career): 12-13-1 ATS

Best bet: Over 46.5

The Bears have been an over machine the past few years, and I don't foresee them consistently stopping this Chargers team that isn't immune to giving up a ton of points, either.

Raiders @ Lions - Monday, Oct. 30 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DET -8.0; O/U 45.0

Raiders trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 12 non-conference games: 5-7 ATS
Previous 20 games following a loss: 8-12 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Under

Lions trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 12 non-conference games: 7-5 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 15-5 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 22 games following a loss: 13-9 ATS

Best bet: Lions -8.0

The Lions were exposed in a tough road spot against a Baltimore squad that figures to be one of the best in the AFC. Yet, they return home to take on a Raiders squad that has yet to find an offensive identity. I like them to bounce back in a spot where they have been very profitable under head coach Dan Campbell.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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