NFL Week 8 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 8!
Compare first touchdown stats to prop bet odds to help identify the best bets of the week >>
NFL Week 8 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys
Odds: +2200 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Cowboys have been a different defense since Trevon Diggs was injured. They gave up 28 points to the Cardinals and 42 to the 49ers. They are a beatable run defense but surrender points to tight ends. Tight ends are averaging 0.67 touchdowns per game against this unit. Tyler Higbee is averaging five targets per game this season and has not received fewer than three in a game. He has not caught a TD this season, but he can find a soft spot against this defense, and hopefully, it happens in the end zone.
Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers
Odds: +1300 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Panthers give up the second-most yards on the ground and the most touchdowns to the running back position. The running back position averages 1.83 rushing TDs per game and 0.33 receiving TDs per game. Devin Singletary played 54% of snaps in Week 6 before the Texans entered the bye week. Dameon Pierce played 33% of snaps and took a backseat to Singletary. There is some value in Singletary this week against this weak run defense. He has 10 red zone rush attempts this season for 26 yards. Singletary could play more snaps than Pierce again, which is reason enough to bet him to score first.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Odds: +1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Packers have not been good against the run. They allow 143.7 rushing yards per game and give up 4.5 rushing yards per attempt. Cam Akers has played four games with his new team and logged his most snaps (39%) in Week 7. He finished the game with 12 touches for 61 yards, two more than Alexander Mattison. Akers could see another increase in snap count this week and may even find the end zone for the first time with his new team.
New York Jets @ New York Giants
Odds: +1200 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Jets are the worst team in the league at defending the tight end position. They allow 5.33 receptions for 55.17 yards and 0.83 TDs per game to tight ends. Darren Waller is coming off his best game this season, where he finished with seven receptions for 98 yards and a TD. He was the most-targeted player on the team last week and should be again this week. Waller has caught three of four targets in the red zone for 31 yards and a TD. The matchup is solid, and he will draw the most targets, so Waller is the best value.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Odds: +2100 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Kendrick Bourne has been productive this season in a stagnant offense. The Patriots scored 29 points against the Bills last week and are trending upwards heading to Miami. When Bourne plays 87% of snaps or more, he averages 8.5 targets, six receptions and 64.8 receiving yards per game. The Dolphins have surrendered one TD per game to the wide receiver position and have injury concerns at cornerback. Jalen Ramsey has returned to practice this week, and it is still uncertain if he will play. Xavien Howard is nursing a groin injury that forced him out of action last week. Bourne is a solid play from an offense on the come-up.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans
Odds: +850 via Caesars Sportsbook
The Falcons had some controversy over how they handled Bijan Robinson's status for last week's game, but it should not happen with Drake London this week, thankfully. London leads the team in targets per game (7.1) and has the most red zone targets (11). The Titans allow 0.83 TDs to wide receivers this season. They also allow 237 passing yards per game, with an average of eight yards per pass attempt. London has the best matchup this week. The Titans are starting Will Levis, so their offense may take some time to get going.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Odds: +1400 via Caesars Sportsbook
The favorites in this market did not offer value since the Eagles are seven-point favorites. Dallas Goedert is an intriguing play at this price, though. The Commanders switched cornerbacks recently, and their defense has improved at defending the pass. They got worse at defending tight ends, however. They have given up 11 receptions, 141 yards and two TDs over the past two weeks to Kyle Pitts and Darren Waller. Goedert is averaging 5.9 targets per game and has a chance for another monster game.
New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts
Odds: +625 via Caesars Sportsbook
The Colts have been good at defending the run this season but allow 1.43 rushing TDs per game to running backs. They give up 3.8 yards per rush attempt and 118.7 rushing yards per game. Alvin Kamara is not the same explosive runner he used to be, but he is getting lots of opportunities. He is averaging 26.1 touches per game since returning from a three-game suspension. Derek Carr targets Kamara more than anyone, with 9.8 targets per game. He is too involved to pass him up, even at this price.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds: +1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Jaguars are on a roll with four consecutive victories. They are averaging 29 points per game during that stretch and now face a struggling defense. The Steelers allow 241.2 passing yards per game and 21.2 points per game. Christian Kirk leads the team in targets with 7.9 per game, and he has scored in back-to-back weeks. Travis Etienne is the favorite in this offense but has scored seven times, so his odds do not offer enough value. Kirk is priced correctly and has a solid matchup.
Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks
Odds: +1300 via Caesars Sportsbook
Many players are injured in this game, and some odds are unavailable. Kenneth Walker and Tyler Lockett have not practiced this week for the Seahawks. Deshaun Watson and Jerome Ford have not practiced for the Browns. It is hard to determine who will be playing, but P.J. Walker is trending to be the starter for the Browns. Pierre Strong received eight carries last week when Ford left in the second half. The Browns do not have a problem using him and do not want Kareem Hunt exclusively. Hunt is also nursing a thigh injury but returned to practice on Thursday. It still might be enough of a concern that Strong gets a little more usage.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Odds: +500 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Broncos allow the most rushing yards per game, so the play is the opposing running back. They also allow 1.14 rushing TDs and 0.57 receiving TDs per game to the running back position. Isiah Pacheco averages 17.6 touches per game and has found the end zone in four of his last five games. The Chiefs have been taking what they can each week this season and have won games in many different fashions. There is no reason they do not lean on Pacheco this week, and hopefully, they pound the ball in the end zone from the jump.
Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals
Odds: +700 via Caesars Sportsbook
Lamar Jackson already has five rushing TDs this season, all coming inside the red zone. He averages 9.9 rushing attempts for 51.9 rushing yards per game. Jackson is calling his own number in the red zone a lot. He has 18 rush attempts for 74 yards. Justice Hill and Gus Edwards have combined for 23 attempts and 69 rushing yards inside the 20. Jackson matches their productivity in the red zone and has a great matchup this week. The Cardinals allow 0.43 rushing TDs per game to quarterbacks and will have trouble stopping this offense that just scored 38 points last week.
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers
Odds: +625 via Caesars Sportsbook
Brock Purdy suffered a concussion late in the game last week and is in the concussion protocol. He practiced in a limited fashion on Thursday, but his status is unclear. Sam Darnold will start if he is unable to play. The Bengals also have had a week to prepare for this game. Given the 49ers injuries on offense, it is difficult to trust them this week.
The Bengals' offense has struggled this season but has looked far better in their past two games. The 49ers allow 3.9 yards per rush attempt and gave up 234 rushing yards over the past two weeks to the Browns and Vikings. Joe Mixon does not seem like a great play on the surface, but dig, and he becomes a solid play.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
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- NFL Week 8 Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
- NBA Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks, & Predictions
- College Football Week 9 Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks (2023)
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