NFL Week 8 Line Movement Analysis (2023)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 8 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| BAL | ARI | 8 | 8 | 0 | 43.5 | 44 | 0.5 |
| TB | BUF | -7.5 | -9 | -1.5 | 40.5 | 43 | 2.5 |
| HOU | CAR | 3 | 3 | 0 | 42.5 | 43.5 | 1 |
| LAR | DAL | -5.5 | -6.5 | -1 | 45 | 45 | 0 |
| KC | DEN | 8 | 7 | -1 | 46.5 | 46 | -0.5 |
| LV | DET | -8 | -8 | 0 | 44.5 | 46.5 | 2 |
| MIN | GB | -1 | 1 | 2 | 43.5 | 42 | -1.5 |
| NO | IND | -1.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 42.5 | 43.5 | 1 |
| CHI | LAC | -8 | -8.5 | -0.5 | 45.5 | 46.5 | 1 |
| NE | MIA | -10 | -9.5 | 0.5 | 47 | 46.5 | -0.5 |
| NYJ | NYG | 3 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 36.5 | 0.5 |
| JAX | PIT | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 41 | 42 | 1 |
| CLE | SEA | -2.5 | -3.5 | -1 | 40.5 | 38 | -2.5 |
| CIN | SF | -5.5 | -3.5 | 2 | 45.5 | 43.5 | -2 |
| ATL | TEN | 1 | 3 | 2 | 36.5 | 35.5 | -1 |
| PHI | WAS | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 45 | 43.5 | -1.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 8 Spread Movement Analysis
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: -1 ?' +1
The spread flipped in this matchup, most likely due to the Vikings’ performance on Monday night against the 49ers. The Vikings were impressive against a top-ranked defensive unit, especially since they were playing without Justin Jefferson. The Packers, on the other hand, looked bad in a road loss against the Broncos. Aaron Jones returned last week but was clearly limited. Luckily for Green Bay, it seems WR Christian Watson avoided a significant injury last week and has been practicing fully this week.
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts: -1.5 ?' +1
The line in this matchup flipped as well, with the Saints now slight favorites on the road. Both teams are coming into this game after close losses in high-scoring games last week. That seems to be a trend in Colts games over the last month of the season. The total points scored in the last four Colts games is 56.3 on average. The defense has been allowing 30.3 points per game during that span, so it makes sense the spread has moved to the Saints’ side.
NFL Week 8 Total Movement Analysis
Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks: 40.5 ?' 38.0
The Browns will need to start PJ Walker for the foreseeable future until Deshaun Watson’s shoulder heals. Even prior to the hit that took him out of the game against the Colts, Watson did not seem to be at full strength. The Browns will need their defense to lead the way, as they have been the last couple of weeks. Even though they gave up 38 points, the defense was the reason they won the game again last week. Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ defense has quietly been playing well over the last three games. They are only allowing 10 points per game (PPG) over that period.
Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers: 45.5 ?' 43.5
The drop in total could be attributed to the health of 49ers QB Brock Purdy. Purdy reported concussion symptoms and is now in the league protocol, so it remains to be seen if he will be able to clear in time to play Sunday. The spread in this matchup also dropped two points from -5.5 to -3.5 in favor of San Francisco. The Bengals are coming off a bye and showed signs of the offense turning around in the two games prior to the bye. Even so, they are only averaging 16.7 PPG this season.
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