NFL Week 8 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 8 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| BAL | CLE | 10.5 | 9 | 1.5 | 42.5 | 44.4 | 2 |
| IND | HOU | -6 | -5 | -1 | 47.5 | 46 | -1.5 |
| TEN | DET | -11.5 | -11.5 | 0 | 46.5 | 45 | -1.5 |
| AZ | MIA | -3 | -3.5 | 0.5 | 47.5 | 46 | -1.5 |
| NYJ | NE | 7 | 7 | 0 | 41.5 | 41 | -0.5 |
| PHI | CIN | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 46.5 | 48 | 1.5 |
| GB | JAX | 4.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 48.5 | 49 | 0.5 |
| ATL | TB | -3 | 2.5 | -5.5 | 48.5 | 46 | -2.5 |
| BUF | SEA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 48.5 | 47 | -1.5 |
| NO | LAC | -7.5 | -7 | -0.5 | 39.5 | 40.5 | 1 |
| CAR | DEN | -7.5 | -9.5 | 2 | 42.5 | 41.5 | -1 |
| CHI | WAS | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 44.5 | 43 | -1.5 |
| KC | LV | 10 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 42 | 41.5 | -0.5 |
| DAL | SF | -6 | -4 | -2 | 48 | 46 | -2 |
| NYG | PIT | -6.5 | -6 | -0.5 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 0 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 8 Spread Movement Analysis
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -3 ?' +2.5
This point spread between NFC South rivals is the only one on the Week 8 slate that jumped the fence throughout the week, and it did so in a big way as a reaction to injury news.
Tampa Bay lost wide receiver Chris Godwin to a season-ending ankle injury, and will likely be without fellow receiver Mike Evans until after the Week 11 bye as he deals with a hamstring injury. Those injuries are what also made the total plummet 2.5 points from 48.5 to 46, especially since these two teams combined for 66 points in a 36-30 Falcons win three weeks ago.
Tampa Bay opened as a field goal favorite and the line immediately swung to Falcons -2.5 once the severity of the Buccaneers injuries were known. There was buyback on the Buccaneers to +1.5 on multiple occasions, but each time, Falcons backers weighed in and drove the line back to -2.5. Given that there continues to be support for the banged-up underdogs, it is unlikely that this line kicks off at the key number of three or higher.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers: -6 ?' -4
Injuries have also played a big part in the line movement in the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and 49ers. San Francisco lost Brandon Aiyuk for the season last week. In addition, Deebo Samuel was hospitalized for pneumonia earlier in the week, George Kittle has missed practices with a foot injury, Christian McCaffrey is likely to be held out again, and Jauan Jennings is questionable with a hip injury.
There are few completely healthy skill position players for the 49ers, and that caused the line to initially drop from -6 to -4.5. There was initial buyback to -5, but from there it has been all Cowboys money, bringing the line to -4 where it sits now.
Plenty of Cowboys backers are likely confident since Dallas is off a bye week. That has been a great situational spot for Dak Prescott, who is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 games off extended rest.
NFL Week 8 Total Movement Analysis
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins: 47.5 ?' 46
Two of the biggest movements in point spreads involved games where teams are dealing with a myriad of injuries. That is also why the total was impacted in this Cardinals-Dolphins matchup, but the line has moved against conventional wisdom.
It was announced early in the week that Tua Tagovailoa was returning from a multi-game absence as he recovered from concussion symptoms. However, even though Miami has its starting quarterback healthy, bettors are speculative.
The total initially dropped from 47.5 to 46.5 and was bought back to the original number. From there, the total made several downturns all the way to 45.5, when support finally came back in on the Over and drove the total a half-point higher to 46.
Not only are bettors likely cautious knowing that Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense could look rusty, but Arizona held the Chargers without an offensive touchdown on Monday Night Football in Week 7, the first time its defense did not allow an offensive touchdown in 51 games.
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos: 42.5 ?' 41.5
This Panthers-Broncos total has seen some of the wackiest movement of any Week 8 game.
Initially, the line was bet down from 42.5 to 41.5, but constant support on the Over drove the total eventually to a week-long high of 43.5. That is around the time where the news of Andy Dalton’s multi-car accident surfaced, and the news broke that the Panthers were forced to go back to second-year quarterback Bryce Young.
Bettors do not seem enamored with Young’s potential, as the line decreased from 43.5 to 42, rebounded slightly to 42.5, and has since dropped one more point to 41.5.
This line movement ignores the fact that the Panthers have allowed 34 or more points in four straight games for the first time ever, and their 243 points allowed this season are tied for the third-most though seven games by any team in the Super Bowl era.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.