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NFL Week 8 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome back to my Week 8 NFL Line Report at BettingPros, featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out my Week 1 introduction.

Long story short, NFL prices aren’t standardized, so not all points are priced equally. I’m going to run valuations on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting board each week and chart prices to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the ML versus ATS (and vice-versa).

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NFL Week 8 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

Significant Overnight Line Moves And Notes Since The Open

TB moved from (+6) to (+8.5) at BUF

I’d agree the six-point open was soft and bound to move toward the home team, but I’d also counter the pendulum may have swung too far. The Bills are clearly the better team overall, worthy of being a TD favorite, but don’t ignore how injuries have decimated this defense.

Buffalo’s now lost an impact player at all three levels, posting bottom five metrics over the last three games in Plays/Game (70), Def. EPA/Play (-0.04), Average Drive Distance (38.1), Rushing Yards/Game (141.3), +20 Yard Rushes (4), Completion% Allowed (71.9%), and +20 Yard Completions (12). Woof. While I don’t necessarily love this Tampa offense that has stunk in both games off the bye averaging just under 10 points per game, the Bills just made Mac Jones look like John Elway, so I have my doubts about them.

NO moved from (-1) to (+1.5) at IND

It’s funny how perspective changes with time as you get old. A younger me would overreact to this line swinging through zero, turning Indy, the initial underdog, into a favorite. Now I focus on pricing over everything, and the case that it’s actually the least impactful two-point move possible gets more compelling every day. The market’s apparently chasing its most recent perception, getting away from the Saints after two straight losses despite Derek Carr passing for +300 yards in each.

On the other side of things, although losing the Colts gave fits to a Browns’ D posting historically noteworthy numbers to date. I happen to like Indianapolis in this one, but not enough to challenge New Orleans’ interior and pull the trigger. Make sure, above all, to not pay the premium to cover the spread in these; books rely on you not doing the math.

Lastly, feel free to be patient here; there’s a good chance we make the roundtrip back to (-1) later today.

ATL moved from (-1) to (-3) at TEN

This line’s crept slowly but steadily toward the Falcons since the open as injuries pile up, and buzzards start to circle the Titans 2023 season.  We’ll get into more detail on where I think this one winds up later in the article.

CIN moved from (+5.5) to (+3) at SF

News just hit the wire that 49ers’ quarterback Brock Purdy experienced concussion symptoms on the way home from Minnesota. Per Adam Schefter, no players have cleared the protocol to play that same week since Kenny Pickett did it last year, so the assumption is Sam Darnold will get the nod. Obviously, the report instantly rocked the spread, and you can likely expect it to keep moving amidst the uncertainty. That said, the Bengals struggle mightily against strong defensive interiors, and there could be value on SF at home if the public overreacts and this becomes a PK.

NFL Week 8 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves

ATL should move to (-3.5) from (-3) at TEN

Midweek has always been my favorite time to bet. I get the benefit of cost analysis with some injury info but without the detriment of squares’ overreacting to bully prices. Without considering any of the other surrounding circumstances, a three-point spread priced under $11/point on both sides stands a good chance of reverting back to the norm between $15-$18. Then factor in the tenor of the market regarding TEN, and you may see this line collapse to (+5) as awareness mounts. You can see this value better visualized on the chart below when comparing it to the other three-point lines.

NFL Week 8 Favorites with Value on the Moneyline vs. ATS

  • JAC (-142) at PIT
  • NYJ (-148) vs NYG
  • ATL (-142) at TEN
  • IND (-122) vs NO
  • MIN (-115) at GB

NFL Week 8 Underdogs with Value ATS vs. On the Moneyline

  • PIT (+2.5) at JAC
  • NYG (+3) at NYJ
  • TEN (+3) vs ATL
  • NO (+1.5) at IND
  • GB (+1) vs MIN

As usual, our analysis identifies value in games with spreads of three or fewer points, so today, I wanted to highlight implied probabilities and add perspective. Let’s use the IND/NO game as an example. Remember that any (-110) standard price carries an implied probability of 52.4%, another critical part of the calculus. In this example, betting IND ML to forego needing to cover (-1.5) will cost you (-122) at $8/point with an implied probability of 55.0%. To me, the sample of games is too low, with an outcome variance that’s too high to scoff at a discount.

In plain English, play it safe and don’t be greedy trying to cover these narrow spreads; just over 10% of all games this year have been decided by fewer than two points.

 

Week 8 Best Bet: ATL (-3) to win 1 unit. Record YTD (2-3-1, -1.30u)

The Falcons can frustrate even the most hardened sports bettor, but I think they’re being shortchanged this weekend against the Titans. Believe it or not, over the last three weeks, Atlanta leads the entire NFL in Yards/Game (416.7) on the back of the league’s second most prolific passing offense in that same timeframe.

We know Arthur Smith can scheme up an effective ground game against anyone, including a Titan D, usually known as a pass funnel due to its stout run defense. The thing is, over the last three weeks, Tennessee’s faltered universally, now dead last in Opposing Scoring Drive Rate (60.0%), Rushing Yards Allowed/Game (166.0), and Opposing Completion% (73.6%). Then you have a Titans’ offense averaging under 18 Points/Game that will all likely be missing starting QB Ryan Tannehill, who also just traded away their best (and only good) player in the defensive secondary.

Once Tannehill is confirmed OUT and the public begins to digest how bad the QB situation is for TEN, I think we could rationally expect this close near (+6).

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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