NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Giants vs Steelers)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 8 from BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 8’s Monday Night Football. In this solo MNF edition, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchups as the eighth week of the NFL comes to a close. From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to kick off your week.
Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.
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Monday Night Primer
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sides:
- Pittsburgh is 15-10 ATS since the start of 2023 and is 5-2 this season.
- The Steelers have won eight of their last 11 games.
- The Steelers are 13-7 ATS on the road.
- The Steelers are 6-5 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
- The Steelers are 6-5 as home favorites ATS.
- The Giants are 9-6 ATS over their last 15 games.
- The Giants have lost eight of their last 12 road games.
- The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
- The Giants are 8-12 ATS (40%) as road underdogs.
- They are 1-3 ATS at home this season.
- The road team has covered the spread in four of the Giants’ last five games.
- In each of the Giants’ last four road games, their opponents have scored first.
Totals:
- The Steelers are 4-3 toward the under this season. 1-2 O/U at home this season.
- Four of the Steelers’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Giants are 6-10 toward the over in the last 16 games
- New York has scored 20-plus points in seven of their last 13 games.
- Seven of the Giants’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Giants' last 12 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
The Giants face mounting struggles on offense, especially after a demoralizing home loss to the Eagles, which led to a Daniel Jones benching. The loss of left tackle Andrew Thomas was felt greatly and resulted in seven sacks.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are riding high after a win over the Jets in Russell Wilson's Pittsburgh debut. Wilson leaned heavily on extending plays, holding the ball for over 2.5 seconds on 72.4% of his passes. Since leaving the Seahawks in 2022, according to Next Gen Stats, Wilson has held for over 2.5 seconds on 61.6% of attempts, the fifth-highest rate among active QBs with substantial volume. However, this extended time to throw plays into the Giants' defensive strengths: they allow the third-fewest EPA per dropback (-0.42) on pass attempts exceeding 2.5 seconds, highlighting a defense that thrives on pressure and disrupts longer-developing plays.
The Giants' defense has excelled at generating both sacks (24.4%, the highest rate in the NFL) and pressures (55.1%, 7th-highest) on these extended pass attempts. This could force Wilson into uncomfortable spots if the Steelers rely on deeper plays, though he may still find occasional success through splash plays downfield, where the Giants have shown vulnerability. New York's secondary ranks last in defending deep passes, allowing an average +1.76 EPA per play on throws of 20 or more air yards, which could give Wilson opportunities if Pittsburgh's offensive line can sustain protection long enough.
It's a recipe for a lot of Pittsburgh offensive drives killed by sacks, with big plays from the Steelers passing game trickled in.
I would expect Pittsburgh to rely heavily on running the football, given that the Giants were destroyed against the run last week. Big Blue's defense ranks last in yards per carry and rushing yards over expected allowed this season.
On the other side, the Giants’ offense has faced substantial difficulty in establishing a productive ground game, especially on runs between the tackles. Despite a league-high 62.2% tackle-focused run rate, the Giants' ground game has struggled, producing the league's second-lowest success rate (30.9%) and ranking near the bottom in rushing EPA per carry (-0.39) according to Next Gen Stats.
This inefficiency will be hard to overcome against a Steelers defense that has been particularly stout between the tackles. According to Next Gen Stats, Pittsburgh has allowed a league-best -80 rushing yards over expected to opposing backs in this area, setting up a formidable challenge for the Giants, who have underperformed in generating rushing yards over expected (-14). Expect the Giants to face a grind if they attempt to lean heavily on a run game that has yet to find traction this season.
Take the under on Devin Singletary's 31.5 rushing yards. He's gone under in his last two games and isn't even the team's starting tailback anymore, ceding that role to rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr.
As for the Giants passing game, it's Malik Nabers or bust. The Steelers have a great pass rush, and the Giants have major issues with their offensive line. On the road in a hostile environment...it's easy to see how this could turn ugly quickly.
I don't expect much offensive output from the Giants, and I think the Steelers incorporate a heavy conservative run game with a few play-action shots thrown in. They've got all the advantages I can see and should be riding high heading into their Week 9 bye week. The Steelers roll and win by a touchdown at home.
Props:
Per Next Gen Stats, George Pickens has been shadowed on at least two-thirds of his routes when aligned wide in 4 games this season. In Week 7, Sauce Gardner aligned across Pickens on 14 of his 21 routes when aligned out wide (66.7%).
Pickens was targeted 4 times with Gardner as the nearest defender, catching only 1 of those passes for 12 yards. Pickens caught 4 of his 5 targets against all other Jets defenders, gaining 99 yards and a touchdown. Deonte Banks has shadowed an opposing WR for over 85% of their routes aligned out wide in all seven games this season. No other corner has done so more than 4 times (A.J. Terrell and Christian Gonzalez, four each).
Wilson will be licking his chops to throw 50/50 balls to Pickens in man coverage. Whether he comes down with those remains to be seen, but he will have opportunities to do so in this specific matchup.
According to Next Gen Stats, despite missing two games, Malik Nabers leads the NFL in receptions (19), yards (251), first downs (12), and receiving EPA (+21.9) on targets after being sent in motion. Nabers has been targeted on 60.0% of his routes when in motion, the highest rate by any player with at least 15 such routes through the first 7 weeks of a season since 2018. The Steelers defense has allowed the 5th-fewest receptions (20) and 8th-fewest receiving yards (171) to players sent in motion this season. However, the Steelers have allowed opposing receivers to gain a first down on 50% of their targets off motion, tied for the highest rate in the NFL.
In Nabers' first game back from injury in Week 7, he ran a season-high 15 routes from the slot. We know the Steelers are a slot-funnel defense - so I am expecting Nabers to get moved inside to get him the ball more often. In Week 7, Nabers was the top target, catching four passes for 41 yards, averaging 10.3 yards per reception with a long of 14 yards and 12 yards after the catch (YAC) with 105 air yards, 54.69% air yards share, and 29.63% Target share. Nabers had all his production in the first half alone.
Jaylen Warren had 12 rushes for 44 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry in Week 7. Najee Harris out-carried Warren eight to four in the first half. However, Warren received three rushing attempts and one target in the red zone but did not score. He led the Steelers in backfield snaps (51%) over Harris (49%). The fact that Warren saw so much red-zone usage last week suggests he's got decent odds to find the end zone on Monday night.
Darnell Washington caught all four of his targets for 36 yards, averaging 9 yards per reception with 7 air yards, 3.20% air yards share, and 14.81% Target share. Washington ran a route on 26% of dropbacks in Week 7, but he was hyper-targeted by Wilson (50% target rate per route run).
Washington is a six-foot-seven, 264-pound tight end coming off his most involved game as a receiver. 13-1 odds to score are beyond too long based on him playing on the favored team with a legitimate role in the red zone. He has consistently played 50% or more of the snaps every week this season.
My Picks: