NFL Week 8 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday Night Football (2022)
NFL betting requires you to be nimble and have a short memory. What we saw last week often doesn’t completely apply the following Sunday. And sometimes, you have to hold your nose, grab some Pepto Bismol and take a really ugly underdog.
We’re presented with that opportunity this Sunday night when the Green Bay Packers travel to meet the Buffalo Bills. These two teams couldn’t be heading in more opposite directions. The Packers are reeling on a three-game losing skid in which the offense has wavered between mediocre and hapless. The Bills are winners of their last three and are coming off a bye week.
So, do we lay it with the red-hot Bills? Or do we grab some antacid and back Aaron Rodger as a double-digit dog for the first time in his career? Let’s break it down.
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Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (-10.5) | Total 47
The Bills are the class of the NFL
In a 2022 season where the NFL feels as mediocre as ever, the Buffalo Bills stand high and tall as the league’s best team. The Bills already have wins over three playoff teams from a season ago and are the most complete team in the league. Buffalo is the top team in the league per DVOA and leads the league with 6.6 yards per play.
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level and leads the league’s top passing game. The Buffalo running game isn’t quite as prolific and ranks 28th in DVOA. The Bills rank 22nd in rushing yards on the year, but Allen has accounted for 257 of the team’s 707 rushing yards.
Defensively, Buffalo remains an elite unit, ranking tops in the league in DVOA and fourth in yards per play allowed. The unit doesn’t really have a weakness and should come into this game as close to full strength as possible coming off the bye week.
You have to look really hard to find flaws with this Bills team. But if there is, it’s an offensive line that doesn’t always dominate in the trenches. Buffalo ranks 20th in adjusted line yards, 24th in power success rate, and 27th in stuff rate. The Packers may invite the Bills to run the ball with soft defensive boxes. The question will be whether Buffalo can take advantage.
Are the Packers simply a bad team?
That’s kind of a loaded question. It’s easy to forget that everyone expected the Packers’ offense to struggle once Davante Adams was traded to Las Vegas. And while the offense has struggled, the advanced statistics suggest this unit isn’t as bad as the eye test shows. In fact, Green Bay ranks 10th in offensive DVOA and just 17th in yards per play. While those stats don’t indicate an elite offense like in previous seasons, it shows that the offense might not be as bad as sentiment suggests.
The problem is an already short-handed Packers passing game will be without Allen Lazard and perhaps rookie Christian Watson. That leaves Rodgers with tight end Robert Tonyan, rookie Romeo Doubs and veteran wideout Sammy Watkins as his best pass catchers left.
Green Bay will have to rely heavily on its backfield duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Jones is the offense’s focal point, with 432 rushing yards and 26 receptions for 176 yards. Dillon is the power back with pass-catching abilities, although he’s struggled with drops throughout the season.
Green Bay’s defense has been the bigger disappointment, actually. A talented unit ranks 25th in DVOA and 31st against the run. Part of that is by design, as defensive coordinator Joe Berry’s scheme is predicated to allow teams to run the ball to prevent the big play with a zone scheme on the back end.
That bend, don’t break mentality is exactly the way to play teams like Buffalo with potent offenses. The goal will be to force Buffalo to methodically move the ball downfield, and with more plays comes a greater likelihood of mistakes.
The question will be whether Berry will deploy shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander on Bills star receiver Stefon Diggs. The answer is likely no, as Berry hasn’t used Alexander like that in the past. But with Green Bay’s defense taking a ton of flak for its performance the last couple of weeks, Berry could adjust his scheme this week.
Prediction and Pick
This is a classic buy low, sell high spot in the NFL. Betting against the Bills in Buffalo is always a dicey proposition. I’m not telling you I feel great about it. But this simply feels like too many points. You would’ve laughed if you had heard three weeks ago that Buffalo would close as double-digit favorites against Green Bay.
I expect a highly motivated Green Bay defense to keep Buffalo’s potent offense at bay by daring them to run. From there, expect Rashan Gary and the Packers’ front seven to keep Buffalo behind the chains, leading to third and long situations. The defense may have to stand on its head, but it has the scheme and personnel to do it.
Green Bay’s offense is an obvious concern, and points may come at a premium. But I’ll trust Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur to develop a plan with their backs against the wall.
This is not going to feel good. But I’d take the Packers in this Sunday night tilt. All we need is a 10-point loss. I’d also lean with the under.
The pick: Packers +10.5 (-105) and lean under 47 (-105)
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