NFL Week 8 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday)
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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions
Rams vs. Cowboys
The Rams are obviously not the same team that won the Super Bowl two years ago, but the return of Matthew Stafford has been fun. He’s had a lot of success with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but they’ll get one of their most difficult tests of the season against a stout Cowboy defense that is allowing only 197.2 passing yards per game. The Rams may have to rely heavily on a surprisingly good running game although Kyren Williams is now on IR. When it comes to exploiting the LA defense’s weakness, the Cowboys might struggle. The Rams have one of the worst run defenses, ranked 24th in DVOA. However, the Cowboys have a near-bottom-ranked run offense by the same metric. If Dallas needs to rely on Dak Prescott’s arm to move the football, it has come with mixed results over the last few years. This is a game where both teams will have trouble finishing drives so I’m taking the under.
Pick: Under 45.5
-Ryan Rodeman
Vikings vs. Packers
Depending on the book, you can get either of these teams as an underdog. They’re both pretty average teams by any advanced metric. However we’re getting the Packers coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Broncos while the Vikings are coming off a huge upset of the 49ers. Kirk Cousins had a big game, linking up with Jordan Addison, but the forecast is calling for cold and rainy on Sunday so we’ll see how that connection looks outside of the friendly confines of the dome. Green Bay has struggled moving the ball on the ground this year, but was able to put up 137 yards on the ground last week, and the more Aaron Jones gets reps, the quicker he’ll get back to being the lead back. I think last week’s results are muddying the difference between these teams. I’ll take the home team in a good old fashioned NFC North fight.
Pick: Packers +1.5
-Ryan Rodeman
Falcons vs. Titans
Can you say “rock fight?†Because that’s exactly what we’re in store for in this game. The Titans will deploy either Malik Willis or rookie Will Levis at quarterback, and it could wind up being a combination of both. In limited action, Willis hasn’t looked the part of a professional quarterback, while Levis is a complete unknown after his draft day free fall. On the flip side, Tennessee’s defense ranks eighth in EPA on run defense. The way to beat this Titans defense is through the air, and forgive me if I’m lacking confidence in Desmond Ridder’s ability to take advantage. Coming off the bye, I expect Mike Vrabel to have a strong defensive game plan. And while I lean Titans as a short home underdog, I’m more confidentin the under.
Pick: Under 35.5 / Lean Titans +2.5
-Matt Barbato
Saints vs. Colts
It hasn’t been the most exciting year for Derek Carr and the Saints. But they’re one win away from getting back to .500. The offense is probably the healthiest it has been this season, with Jamaal Williams and Alvin Kamara back, along with Derek Carr’s health. Meanwhile, the defense has looked dominant in coverage, holding teams to just above 200 yards passing per game. The pass rush has been strong, and the run defense has also kept teams below 100 yards per game on the ground. The Saints are playing better than the record shows. On the other hand, the Saints will take on a Colts team that has allowed 37 or more points in the last two games. The secondary has been awful, and the missed tackles are piling up. I like the Saints -110.
Pick: Saints ML
-Jason Radowitz
Patriots vs. Dolphins
New England is coming off a high of beating the Bills, 29-25. But they’ve still lost three of their last four games and scored just 17 or fewer points in three. One game won’t change my opinion of a team. The Patriots still aren’t playing at a high level. Mac Jones has seven touchdowns and seven interceptions passing the football. He’s also playing behind a terrible offensive line. Meanwhile, the run game has earned only 85.4 yards per game on the ground this season. This offense will still face a very good Miami defense. The Dolphins rush the passer very well and create havoc that eventually turns into a turnover from the secondary. On offense, Tyreek Hill said he’s good to go. Therefore, I still think the Dolphins will earn a huge win and cover on Sunday.
Pick: Dolphins -9.5
-Jason Radowitz
Jets vs. Giants
We have the battle of supremacy in East Rutherford. The Jets have done well for the adversity they’ve faced losing Aaron Rodgers. They have two great wins, including the upset against the Eagles. The defense hasn’t been as dominant as last year but has played well against some great competition, including giving Jalen Hurts one of the worst performances in his young career. The Giants will play another game without Daniel Jones, but Tyrod Taylor has done well, was in line to beat the Bills, and looked great against the Commanders. This will be a tough assignment for that offense that has already been shut out this season. Neither team has offensively been good, and this low total is justified, but the Giants’ offensive line has been better recently and isn’t playing well on defense, so this game will hit the over.
Pick: Over 35.5
-John Supowitz
Jaguars vs. Steelers
A Mike Tomlin-coached team as a home underdog is a spot you always at least circle on the schedule. The Steelers are 17-5-3 ATS as a home dog since 2007, the best mark in the NFL. Pittsburgh is one of the hardest teams in the league to figure out, as all four of their wins have come as underdogs, yet they never look particularly good. That’s especially true on offense, where the Steelers rank 29th in EPA. Jacksonville’s defense has been rolling lately, and a pass defense that had been a weakness to begin the year now ranks 5th in EPA and could make life difficult on Kenny Pickett. Of course, the catalyst for Pittsburgh is its pass rush led by T.J. Watt, and the game will likely come down to how often Pittsburgh gets home against Trevor Lawrence. I’d prefer to take +3 with Pittsburgh, but this isn’t one of my favorite games of the slate. Steelers home games just tend to be ugly by nature, so I’ll lean to the under.
Pick: Lean under 41
-Matt Barbato
Eagles vs. Commanders
The Commanders almost earned a win over the Eagles a few weeks ago. But times have changed. The Commanders aren’t playing anywhere close to that level of play anymore. Washington just lost to the Giants, who were previously on a four-game losing streak and scored only seven points. On the other hand, the Eagles were woken up by a loss to the Jets a couple of weeks ago and earned a 31-17 win over the Dolphins. That was encouraging. While Hurts has eight interceptions, we probably don’t talk about the Philadelphia defense enough. The run defense has held teams to 62.9 yards per game. Washington will be forced to throw the ball and rarely get their best playmakers involved. I’ll side with the Eagles -7.
Pick: Eagles -7
-Jason Radowitz
Texans vs. Panthers
I’m confident in C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ offense. However, I also believe that the Panthers will fare better with a new offensive play-caller in Thomas Brown. The Texans and Panthers have been weak against the run defensively. Both teams have also missed a lot of tackles. While Houston’s got a solid secondary, the pass rush isn’t all that effective. Meanwhile, the Panthers’ secondary is way below average. These teams have each allowed more than 350 yards per game. However, only the Panthers have paid the price, allowing 186 points this season to Houston’s 113 points allowed. It’ll all catch up to the Texans. Let’s take the Over 43.5 in this bout between the two biggest rookie quarterbacks this season.
Pick: Over 43.5
-Jason Radowitz
Browns vs. Seahawks
I’m definitely in the minority on this one, but my prevailing thought about this game is I’m not sure there’s that much of a drop off between P.J. Walker and a damaged Deshaun Watson. I also think we’ll see a maximum effort from the Browns defense after they allowed 38 points to Gardner Minshew and the Colts. A Browns pass rush led by Myles Garrett could generate a ton of pressure against a Seahawks offensive line that’s been in flux most of the year. That doesn’t bode well for Geno Smith, who has struggled with pressure this season. Plus, Seattle’s home-field advantage might be a bit overrated, as the Seahawks are just 5-8 as a home favorite since 2021. I’d take the Browns at a field goal or better.
Pick: Browns +4
-Matt Barbato
Chiefs vs. Broncos
It was a quick turnaround for these teams as they faced each other just a couple of weeks ago. The Chiefs’ offense has looked phenomenal in some games, but in others, they have struggled. You wouldn’t believe they could only put 19 points against a defense that had given up 70 to another opponent earlier in the season. This could be the last time version of this Broncos team as rumors swirl of several players being available at the trade deadline. At 2-5, they don’t look good on either side of the ball, but they have played a lot of close games, and if the ball bounced a different way, they could have been .500 or better. The Chiefs don’t want to play another close game, and they played much better last week against the Chargers, they can carry that into this game and get a convincing win.
Pick: Chiefs -7
-John Supowitz
Ravens vs. Cardinals
No team was as impressive as the Ravens were last week in their utter dismantling of the Detroit Lions. The result surprised many, but the advanced stats like DVOA imply that we shouldn’t be. The Ravens sit top five in both offense and defense. Some early losses came at the expense of redzone issues and dropped passes of Baltimore’s receivers. Arizona surprised many early by covering and even outright winning a few games early in the season, but have since gone 0-4 ATS in their last four. Now Kyler Murray may return this week and although that he’s an upgrade over Josh Dobbs, he’s practicing for the first time this week in a brand new offense. There will be rust if he plays. The big Raven win last week is probably inflating this line a bit, but I don’t think we’ve seen the Ravens’ final form as Lamar Jackson gets more comfortable in his new offense.
Pick: Ravens -9.5
-Ryan Rodeman
Bengals vs. 49ers
I took the Bengals +3.5 once news broke that Brock Purdy was in concussion protocol, but the line has jumped up to as high as +4.5 in some spots with word that Purdy was present at practice Thursday. I’m still operating under the assumption that Sam Darnold will make the start Sunday, as teams have been far more conservative with the concussion protocol this season. But even if Purdy plays, I still like the Bengals to keep this game within a field goal, if not win outright. I suspect Joe Burrow is at or awfully close to full strength after the bye. Meanwhile, it’s the 49ers who are dealing with a bevy of injuries, as there’s a decent chance both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel miss this game too. Burrow and the Bengals are 13-6 ATS as a road underdog, and I like the spot for Cincinnati coming off of its bye week against a 49ers team that played last Monday night. This feels like a hard-nosed defensive game that Cincinnati keeps close the entire way.
Pick: Bengals +5
-Matt Barbato
Bears vs. Chargers
In a season that isn’t going the way they expected, the Bears had one more of the more inspiring wins of the season. Tyson Bagent, an undrafted rookie out of the DII program Shepard University, started for the injured Justin Fields and got the win against the Raiders last week. The Chargers are amid their second two-game losing streak of the season. The offense isn’t bad, but dealing with injuries to some of their important playmakers has certainly hindered them. The defense has been a huge problem, as they’re allowing the second-most total yards and eighth-most points. If the Bears could win in this game, that would be an even larger upset. Both defenses are dreadful to watch this year. Los Angeles should have no problem marching up and down the field, but you have to like how Chicago ran their offense with Bagent, and they should put up some points against this defense.
Pick: Over 46.5
-John Supowitz
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