NFL Week 8 Picks & Predictions: Colts vs. Commanders (2022)
You can find all of my best bets for Week 8 here. Let’s take a look below at my favorite odds, picks, and predictions for Colts vs. Commanders to help guide your Week 8 NFL betting.
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NFL Week 8 Picks & Predictions: Colts vs. Commanders
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts
Check out our Commanders at Colts matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
- TV: FOX
Commanders at Colts: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Colts -3
- Over/Under: 39.5
- Moneyline: Colts -148, Commanders +130
Commanders at Colts: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26
- Spread: Commanders - 65% bets, 72% money
- Over/Under: Under - 79% bets, 93% money
- Moneyline: Commanders - 42% bets, 45% money
Commanders at Colts: Injuries
Commanders: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Saahdiq Charles | G | Illness | DNP |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Cole Holcomb | LB | Foot | DNP |
| William Jackson | CB | Back | DNP |
| Cole Turner | TE | Concussion | DNP |
| Dyami Brown | WR | Groin | LP |
| Logan Thomas | TE | Calf | LP |
| Jonathan Williams | RB | Knee | LP |
| Sam Cosmi | OT | Finger | FP |
| Taylor Heinicke | QB | Calf | FP |
Commanders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Willie Beavers | G | IR |
| Tariq Castro-Fields | CB | IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | IR |
| Curtis Hodges | TE | IR |
| Phidarian Mathis | DT | IR |
| Chase Roullier | C | IR |
| Wes Schweitzer | G | IR |
| Carson Wentz | QB | IR |
| Chase Young | DE | PUP |
Colts: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Stephon Gilmore | CB | Rest | DNP |
| Yannick Ngakoue | DE | Rest | DNP |
| Kwity Paye | DE | Ankle | DNP |
| Matt Ryan | QB | Right shoulder | DNP |
| Grant Stuard | LB | Pectoral | DNP |
| JoJo Domann | LB | Abdomen | LP |
| Ryan Kelly | C | Knee | LP |
| Keke Coutee | WR | Concussion | FP |
| Zaire Franklin | OLB | Shoulder | FP |
| Shaquille Leonard | OLB | Back | FP |
| Luke Rhodes | LS | Shoulder | FP |
Colts: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Trevor Denbow | S | IR |
| Ashton Dulin | WR | IR |
| Carter O’Donnell | T | IR |
| Andrew Ogletree | TE | IR |
| Rigoberto Sanchez | P | IR |
| Armani Watts | S | IR |
| Khari Willis | S | Retired |
Commanders at Colts: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Commanders Trends
- 2022 Commanders: 3-4 ATS (10.2% ROI for faders)
Colts Trends
- 2022 Colts: 3-4 ATS (8.6% ROI for faders)
- HC Frank Reich: 24-17-2 ATS (13.2% ROI) out of division
Commanders at Colts: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Commanders Offense vs. Colts Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.079 | 27 | 0.004 | 14 | -13 |
| Total SR | 38.3% | 30 | 45.7% | 25 | -5 |
| Total DVOA | -16.7% | 28 | -2.3% | 11 | -17 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.065 | 27 | 0.098 | 21 | -6 |
| Dropback SR | 41.0% | 27 | 50.4% | 28 | 1 |
| Pass DVOA | -7.9% | 29 | 8.4% | 16 | -13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.2% | 29 | 8.0% | 10 | -19 |
| Rush EPA | -0.104 | 22 | -0.115 | 10 | -12 |
| Rush SR | 33.1% | 31 | 39.8% | 14 | -17 |
| Rush DVOA | -20.4% | 29 | -13.9% | 8 | -21 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.11 | 26 | 3.86 | 3 | -23 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 29 | 5.1 | 8 | -21 |
| Points per Game | 17.9 | 25 | 20 | 13 | -12 |
Colts Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.097 | 30 | 0.003 | 13 | -17 |
| Total SR | 42.5% | 23 | 41.0% | 3 | -20 |
| Total DVOA | -26.8% | 32 | 1.2% | 16 | -16 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.051 | 26 | 0.08 | 16 | -10 |
| Dropback SR | 45.6% | 19 | 44.3% | 11 | -8 |
| Pass DVOA | -20.2% | 30 | 15.2% | 29 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.4% | 23 | 8.2% | 7 | -16 |
| Rush EPA | -0.197 | 31 | -0.128 | 9 | -22 |
| Rush SR | 35.5% | 30 | 35.5% | 3 | -27 |
| Rush DVOA | -28.6% | 32 | -18.6% | 4 | -28 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.86 | 31 | 4.24 | 9 | -22 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 27 | 5.5 | 16 | -11 |
| Points per Game | 16.1 | 30 | 22.3 | 19 | -11 |
Commanders at Colts: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Taylor Heinicke
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.6 | 35 |
Career: Taylor Heinicke
- AY/A: 6.1
- QB Elo per Game: -35.8
2022: Sam Ehlinger
Ehlinger has no NFL passing statistics.
Career: Sam Ehlinger
- AY/A: N/A
- QB Elo per Game: N/A
Key Matchup: Colts Rush Offense vs. Commanders Rush Defense
Benched QB Matt Ryan hasn’t been great this year (6.0 AY/A, No. 29) — but the Colts running game has been worse.
Astoundingly, the Colts have a bottom-three rushing offense, and now they’re taking on a defense that’s top-10 against the run.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.197 | 31 | -0.128 | 9 | -22 |
| Rush SR | 0.355 | 30 | 0.355 | 3 | -27 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.286 | 32 | -0.186 | 4 | -28 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.86 | 31 | 4.24 | 9 | -22 |
But maybe — maybe — new starting QB Sam Ehlinger will be able to help out in the ground game.
He’s a sixth-rounder making his first NFL start, so I’m probably just burning money by betting on him, but he was fantastic in the preseason with 24-of-29 for 289-4-0 passing. Under the guidance of HC Frank Reich, he might be able to play well enough within the system to hold serve against a Commanders defense that ranks No. 29 in pass DVOA (15.2%).
And he has an explosiveness and mobility that Ryan has never had. In four years of college ball, Ehlinger was 459-2,510-33 rushing (excluding sacks, per Sports Info Solutions). Most importantly, he had 173 scrambles — and that’s why he’s now the Colts starter.
The Colts need a quarterback who can (hopefully) help them juice the rushing game by turning pressured dropbacks and sacks into chain-moving improvised carries.
Before Ryan’s benching was announced …
… this line was -4 on Sunday night and Monday morning. Within an hour of the announcement, the line had moved to -2, where it met resistance and was bet back to the key number of -3, where it currently is at most sportsbooks.
That’s the sign that the market thinks Ehlinger can play — or at least keep this game close.
Best Line: Colts -2.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Colts -2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Colts -3.25
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