NFL Week 8 Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Jets (2022)
You can find all of my best bets for Week 8 here. Let’s take a look below at my favorite odds, picks, and predictions for Patriots vs. Jets to help guide your Week 8 NFL betting.
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NFL Week 8 Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Jets
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Check out our Patriots at Jets matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium
- TV: CBS
Patriots at Jets: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Patriots -1.5
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Moneyline: Patriots -130, Jets +110
Patriots at Jets: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26
- Spread: Patriots - 59% bets, 77% money
- Over/Under: Under - 65% bets, 94% money
- Moneyline: Patriots - 50% bets, 69% money
Patriots at Jets: Injuries
Patriots: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| David Andrews | C | Concussion | DNP |
| Christian Barmore | DT | Knee | DNP |
| Kyle Dugger | S | Ankle | DNP |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR | Toe | LP |
| Anfernee Jennings | LB | Calf | LP |
| Jonathan Jones | CB | Ankle | LP |
| Mike Onwenu | G | Ankle | LP |
| Adrian Phillips | DB | Shoulder | LP |
| Josh Uche | LB | Hamstring | LP |
| Isaiah Wynn | OT | Shoulder | LP |
Patriots: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Yodny Cajuste | OL | IR |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | IR |
| Ty Montgomery | WR | IR |
| Ronnie Perkins | LB | IR |
| Kristian Wilkerson | WR | IR |
| Joejuan Williams | CB | IR |
| Quinn Nordin | K | NFI |
| Andrew Stueber | OL | NFI |
| Malcolm Perry | WR | Retired |
| James White | RB | Retired |
Jets: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Corey Davis | WR | Knee | DNP |
| John Franklin-Myers | DE | Illness | DNP |
| Duane Brown | OT | Shoulder | LP |
| Jermaine Johnson II | DE | Ankle | LP |
| Quincy Williams | ILB | Ankle | LP |
| Ashtyn Davis | SAF | Hamstring | LP |
Jets: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Nick Bawden | FB | IR |
| Mekhi Becton | T | IR |
| George Fant | T | IR |
| Breece Hall | RB | IR |
| Max Mitchell | OL | IR |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | G | IR |
| Greg Senat | OL | NFI |
Patriots at Jets: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Patriots Trends
- 2022 Patriots: 3-3-1 ATS (-4% ROI)
- HC Bill Belichick: 50-22-1 ATS (37.5% ROI) off loss
- HC Bill Belichick: 56-17 ML (22% ROI) off loss
Jets Trends
- 2022 Jets: 5-2 ATS (36.6% ROI)
- HC Robert Saleh: 2-5 ATS (47.7% ROI for faders) in division
Patriots at Jets: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.01 | 14 | -0.033 | 10 | -4 |
| Total SR | 45.3% | 16 | 44.1% | 17 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | -7.1% | 23 | -2.9% | 10 | -13 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.004 | 18 | -0.008 | 10 | -8 |
| Dropback SR | 47.3% | 15 | 43.9% | 9 | -6 |
| Pass DVOA | 2.6% | 22 | 0.4% | 10 | -12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.2% | 20 | 6.3% | 21 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | 0.019 | 5 | -0.072 | 14 | 9 |
| Rush SR | 42.6% | 11 | 44.4% | 24 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.9% | 16 | -7.2% | 14 | -2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.94 | 4 | 4.24 | 10 | 6 |
| Yards per Play | 5.8 | 9 | 4.9 | 5 | -4 |
| Points per Game | 22.1 | 16 | 19.6 | 10 | -6 |
Jets Offense vs. Patriots Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.042 | 24 | -0.049 | 7 | -17 |
| Total SR | 40.0% | 29 | 44.5% | 19 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | -3.7% | 21 | -5.4% | 9 | -12 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.076 | 28 | -0.097 | 4 | -24 |
| Dropback SR | 40.5% | 29 | 40.9% | 2 | -27 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.6% | 23 | -16.0% | 5 | -18 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.9% | 18 | 8.3% | 6 | -12 |
| Rush EPA | 0.019 | 5 | 0.019 | 28 | 23 |
| Rush SR | 39.1% | 22 | 49.7% | 32 | 10 |
| Rush DVOA | 3.4% | 11 | 7.5% | 28 | 17 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.45 | 17 | 4.80 | 26 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 22 | 5.4 | 12 | -10 |
| Points per Game | 22.7 | 14 | 20.9 | 14 | 0 |
Patriots at Jets: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Mac Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.051 | 23 |
| AY/A | 5.5 | 35 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.7 | 22 |
Career: Mac Jones
- AY/A: 6.8
- QB Elo per Game: -22.8
2022: Zach Wilson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 6.2 | 25 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.6 | 38 |
Career: Zach Wilson
- AY/A: 5.5
- QB Elo per Game: -119.2
Key Matchup: Patriots Pass Defense vs. Jets Pass Offense
For the season, the Jets offense has ranked top-five in just one efficiency metric: Rush EPA per play (0.019, No. 5).
In fact, since QB Zach Wilson returned to action in Week 4 the Jets have ranked No. 1 in rush EPA per play (0.100) and given him outstanding support via the ground game.
But for the year the Jets are No. 22 in rush SR (39.1%), and since Week 4 they’ve improved to only No. 13 (42.3%).
What this means is that, on a down-to-down basis, the Jets have been neither consistent nor great running the ball. Rather, they’ve relied on big plays to move down the field — especially big plays from rookie RB Breece Hall (knee, IR).
But without Hall — as well as do-it-all OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (triceps, IR), the team’s best run blocker — the Jets could struggle on the ground and might need Wilson to contribute more than he has to this point in the year.
And that feels like a problem given that the Patriots defense is top-six in every key pass efficiency metric while the Jets pass offense is no better than average.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | -0.076 | 28 | -0.097 | 4 | -24 |
| Dropback SR | 0.405 | 29 | 0.409 | 2 | -27 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.006 | 23 | -0.16 | 5 | -18 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 0.069 | 18 | 0.083 | 6 | -12 |
If the Jets can’t run the ball without Hall and Vera-Tucker — and if they can’t pass the ball against the Pats defense — how will they score enough points to cover?
Best Line: Patriots -1.5 (-107, PointsBets)
First Recommended: Patriots -1.5 (-107)
Personal Projection: Patriots -2.5
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