NFL Week 8 Picks & Predictions: Saints vs. Raiders (2022)
You can find all of my best bets for Week 8 here. Let’s take a look below at my favorite odds, picks, and predictions for Saints vs. Raiders to help guide your Week 8 NFL betting.
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NFL Week 8 Picks & Predictions: Saints vs. Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Check out our Raiders at Saints matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome
- TV: CBS
Raiders at Saints: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Raiders -1.5
- Over/Under: 49.5
- Moneyline: Raiders -126, Saints +108
Raiders at Saints: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26
- Spread: Saints - 30% bets, 32% money
- Over/Under: Under - 18% bets, 31% money
- Moneyline: Saints - 23% bets, 26% money
Raiders at Saints: Injuries
Raiders: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Johnathan Abram | S | Illness | DNP |
| Davante Adams | WR | Illness | DNP |
| Tashawn Bower | DE | Illness | DNP |
| Divine Deablo | LB | Back/Ankle | DNP |
| Clelin Ferrell | DE | Illness | DNP |
| Jayon Brown | ILB | Hamstring | LP |
| Derek Carr | QB | Back | LP |
| Jermaine Eluemunor | OT | Knee | LP |
| Mack Hollins | WR | Heel | LP |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | Foot | LP |
| Hunter Renfrow | WR | Hip | LP |
| DJ Turner | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Darren Waller | TE | Hamstring | LP |
Raiders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Justin Herron | T | IR |
| Nate Hobbs | CB | IR |
| Jordan Jenkins | DE | IR |
| Micah Kiser | LB | IR |
| Sincere McCormick | RB | IR |
| Brandon Parker | T | IR |
Saints: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Michael Thomas | WR | Foot | DNP |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| Adam Trautman | TE | Ankle | DNP |
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | Abdomen | DNP |
| Andrus Peat | G | Chest | LP |
| Keith Kirkwood | WR | Ankle | LP |
| Paulson Adebo | CB | Knee | LP |
| Ryan Ramczyk | OT | Rest | LP |
| Calvin Throckmorton | OT | Hip | FP |
| Payton Turner | DE | Chest | FP |
| Jameis Winston | QB | Back/Ankle | FP |
Saints: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Ethan Greenidge | OL | IR |
| Deonte Harty | WR/RS | IR |
| Albert Huggins | DT | IR |
| D’Marco Jackson | LB | IR |
| Smoke Monday | SAF | IR |
| Trevor Penning | OT | IR |
| Bradley Roby | CB | IR |
| P.J. Williams | CB | IR |
| Dylan Soehner | TE | PUP |
Raiders at Saints: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Raiders Trends
- 2022 Raiders: 3-3 ATS (-3.3% ROI)
- QB Derek Carr: 15-25-1 ATS (20.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
- 2022 Favorites: 45-62-1 ATS (10.8% ROI for faders)
Saints Trends
- 2022 Saints: 2-5 ATS (35.2% ROI for faders)
- 2022 Saints: 2-2 ATS (-4.3% ROI) with QB Andy Dalton
- QB Andy Dalton: 41-31-2 ATS (12.0% ROI) as underdog
Raiders at Saints: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Raiders Offense vs. Saints Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.091 | 4 | 0.029 | 20 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.3% | 9 | 43.3% | 11 | 2 |
| Total DVOA | 5.7% | 12 | 3.5% | 22 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.131 | 7 | 0.137 | 29 | 22 |
| Dropback SR | 46.9% | 18 | 47.3% | 22 | 4 |
| Pass DVOA | 8.8% | 18 | 10.6% | 20 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.7% | 17 | 6.6% | 18 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | 0.019 | 5 | -0.131 | 7 | 2 |
| Rush SR | 45.3% | 5 | 37.3% | 7 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | 15.9% | 1 | -6.0% | 19 | 18 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.69 | 1 | 4.53 | 16 | 15 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 7 | 5.6 | 17 | 10 |
| Points per Game | 27.2 | 3 | 28.6 | 31 | 28 |
Saints Offense vs. Raiders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.004 | 17 | 0.062 | 26 | 9 |
| Total SR | 48.4% | 4 | 46.0% | 27 | 23 |
| Total DVOA | -2.5% | 20 | 9.2% | 27 | 7 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.003 | 19 | 0.178 | 31 | 12 |
| Dropback SR | 48.8% | 9 | 48.4% | 27 | 18 |
| Pass DVOA | -3.3% | 25 | 19.7% | 30 | 5 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.4% | 15 | 5.4% | 25 | 10 |
| Rush EPA | -0.007 | 12 | -0.149 | 3 | -9 |
| Rush SR | 47.8% | 2 | 41.7% | 17 | 15 |
| Rush DVOA | 11.8% | 3 | -5.9% | 20 | 17 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.05 | 2 | 4.18 | 7 | 5 |
| Yards per Play | 6.1 | 4 | 5.8 | 22 | 18 |
| Points per Game | 25 | 7 | 25 | 26 | 19 |
Raiders at Saints: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Derek Carr
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.117 | 7 |
| AY/A | 7.2 | 11 |
| QBR | 62 | 7 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.4 | 16 |
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 14.8
2022: Andy Dalton
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.089 | 13 |
| AY/A | 6.9 | 15 |
| QBR | 51 | 18 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.2 | 28 |
Career: Andy Dalton
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -6.4
Key Matchup: Saints Rush Offense vs. Raiders Rush Defense
For the Saints, No. 1 WR Michael Thomas (foot) has been out since Week 4. No. 2 WR Jarvis Landry (ankle) has been out since Week 5. No. 1 TE Adam Trautman (ankle), since early in Week 6.
Even so, the Saints have managed 31 points per game over the past month with backup-turned-starting QB Andy Dalton.
How?
The running game.
The Saints have one of the league’s best rush attacks, and the Raiders are mediocre against the run, often allowing opponents to stay on schedule and sustain drives on the ground.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush SR | 0.478 | 2 | 0.417 | 17 | 15 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.118 | 3 | -0.059 | 20 | 17 |
The Raiders are also exploitable via the air, ranking bottom-six in both dropback EPA per play (0.178, No. 31) and dropback SR (48.4%, No. 27) — but with their pass-catching injuries the Saints will likely rely on their running game in Week 8, and their relative edge against the Raiders rush defense should enable them to keep this contest close.
In the Thursday lookahead market, the Saints were -1.5, and I still think they should be favored.
Best Line: Saints +1.5 (-106, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Saints +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Saints -1
If you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.
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