NFL Week 8 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

by Pat Fitzmaurice |
Oct 27, 2023

I've been faithfully betting overs on Bijan Robinson rushing yardage, and I've lost on them three weeks straight. Last week was the coup de grÃ¢ce, with Falcons head coach Arthur Smith â€” avowed foe of gamblers and fantasy managers alike â€” declining to report to the league (as was his obligation) that Bijan was feeling ill, leaving his availability in question. Bijan played 11 snaps and had a single 3-yard carry.

Since Smith has it in for me personally (I know he doesn't, but it feels that way), I shall not be betting any more Bijan overs. Well â€¦ not in Week 8, anyway.

Let's get to this week's selections.

But first, a quick recap of Week 7 â€¦

The wins: Kenneth Walker over 71.5 rushing yards, Drake London over 47.5 receiving yards, Jakobi Meyers under 51.5 receiving yards, Zach Ertz under 24.5 receiving yards

The losses: Matthew Stafford over 264.5 passing yards, Bijan Robinson over 54.5 receiving yards, Darnell Mooney under 24.5 receiving yards, Cooper Kupp under 90.5 receiving yards

Last week: 4-4

Season record: 32-32

Here are my favorite selections for Week 8 ...

NFL Week 8 Player Prop Bets

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday night.

Bryce Young UNDER 232.5 passing yards

Young is averaging 193.4 passing yards per game and has failed to clear this number in 4-of-5 starts. In the one start where he did top this number, Young attempted 41 passes just to scratch out 247 passing yards against the Lions. For the season, Young is averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 272.5 passing yards

Mahomes is hotter than the surface of the sun. He's sailed past this number in three consecutive games, averaging 337 passing yards and 41 pass attempts over that stretch while completing 75.6% of his passes and averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. Are the Broncos going to be the team that cools off Mahomes? Not bloody likely. The Denver defense ranks dead last in the league in DVOA against the pass and is giving up 7.9 yards per pass attempt. When Mahomes faced the Broncos in Week 6, he completed 30-of-40 passes for 306 yards, and it felt as if he had left meat on the bone. Smash the over here.

Tyson Bagent UNDER 204.5 passing yards

It's hard to believe the passing total for Bagent is set at more than 200 yards. Yes, the Chargers' pass defense is bad. The Lightning Bolts are allowing 310 passing yards per game and 8.1 yards per attempt. Then again, the Chargers have faced Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins this season. Bagent, an undrafted rookie free agent from Shepherd University, doesn't have quite the same pedigree. Making his first NFL start last week against the Raiders, Bagent completed 21-of-29 passes for 162 yards while executing an understandably conservative gameplan. In his two appearances this season, Bagent is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt, and his average depth of throw is just 3.7 yards, according to Pro Football Reference. I'll be flabbergasted if Bagent goes over this number.

Breece Hall OVER 68.5 rushing yards

A few weeks ago, Jets head coach Robert Saleh said the team would no longer restrict Breece Hall's workload. The Jets had been understandably judicious in managing Hall's early-season workload after the start running back tore his ACL last season. When Saleh removed the guardrails, Hall immediately went out and carried 22 times for 177 yards. He had only 12 carries for 39 yards two weeks ago in a tough matchup against the Eagles, but now Hall is well-rested after a bye week and heading into a peach of a matchup. He'll face a soft Giants run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA and is giving up 5.0 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Rather than trust QB Zach Wilson to carry a heavy load, expect the Jets to let Hall hammer away at the Giants. I think this total will increase as the week progresses, but I would bet the over up to 73.5 yards.

Taysom Hill OVER 10.5 rushing yards

Derek Carr's ongoing struggles have boosted the usage of Hill, as the Saints' coaching staff desperately looks for ways to move the chains. Over the last two weeks, Hill has logged season-high snap shares of 60% and 58%. He only had one carry for 2 yards in Week 6, but Hill had five carries for 18 yards last week. Hill has cleared this number in 4-of-7 games and is averaging 4.1 carries and 20.0 rushing yards per contest. In Week 8, Hill will face the Colts, who have a middle-of-the-road run defense. It's possible that Hill could win you this bet on his first carry. But I do expect him to get more than just one sip at the saucer.

Kareem Hunt UNDER 46.5 rushing yards

After Browns RB Jerome Ford injured his ankle last week, Pierre Strong played more snaps and had more touches than Kareem Hunt in the remainder of the Browns' 39-38 win over the Colts. Hunt has been dealing with a thigh issue that kept him out of practice on Wednesday (he was back on Thursday), so the Browns seem to be cautiously managing his workload. It makes sense, since Hunt was unsigned this summer and didn't go through training camp. It seems unlikely Hunt will get more than 13-14 rushing attempts this week, and he'll be getting his carries against a vastly improved Seattle run defense that ranks third in DVOA against the run and is giving up 56.5 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry to opposing RBs.

A.J. Brown OVER 88.5 receiving yards

Let's play the hot hand here. Brown has racked up 127 or more receiving yards in five consecutive games, and he gets an excellent matchup this week. He'll face a Washington defense that has given up the second-most receiving yards per game (191.0) to wide receivers. Opposing WRs are averaging a whopping 10.4 yards per target against the Commanders. When A.J. Brown faced Washington in Week 4, he caught 9-of-13 targets for 175 yards.

Nico Collins OVER 55.5 receiving yards

Collins has been an efficiency monster this season, averaging a league-leading 18.9 yards per catch and an absurd 13.0 yards per target. He's averaging 91.2 receiving yards per contest and has cleared this number in 4-of-6 games. Collins should also have some great individual matchups when he faces the Panthers on Sunday. He'll be running most of his routes against either C.J. Henderson or Donte Jackson. Henderson is allowing 2.30 yards per route run into his coverage â€” a sky-high number â€” and a passer rating of 128.1. Jackson is giving up 1.89 yards per route run into his coverage and yielding a passer rating of 146.3. Collins is poised to go off this weekend.

Josh Downs OVER 44.5 receiving yards

This is all about matchup. The Colts face the Saints, who have a fine pair of outside cornerbacks in Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo. But their slot corner, Alontae Taylor, is giving up 1.5 yards per route run into his coverage. PFF has Taylor 100th out of the 115 cornerbacks they've graded. Downs is coming off a 125-yard game against a tough Browns defense and has developed excellent rapport with QB Gardner Minshew.

Michael Thomas UNDER 52.5 receiving yards

Thomas faces a zone-heavy Colts pass defense, and as my colleague Derek Brown notes in this week's installment of The Primer, Thomas has been much better against man coverage than zone. Thomas has a modest 13.8% target share against zone coverage this season. Thomas has failed to top this number in each of his last two games and has averaged only 5.8 yards per target over that stretch.

Trey McBride UNDER 31.5 receiving yards

With Zach Ertz going on injured reserve, McBride should play more snaps and see more targets for the Cardinals. But even with significant increases in his snap share the last two weeks, McBride hasn't seen more than six targets in any game this season. This week, he has a hellish matchup against a nasty Ravens defense that's yielding 29.0 yards per game and 4.7 yards per target to opposing TEs. McBride will also be getting his targets delivered by the slumping Josh Dobbs, who has completed just 51.9% of his throws and averaged 5.2 yards per target over his last three games.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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NFL Week 8 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

NFL Week 8 Player Prop Bets

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