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NFL Week 8 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

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NFL Week 8 is here and it’s time to lock in some best bets and props before the games kick off. Picking matchups against the spread and betting on the over/under is more commonplace, but a Same Game Parlay (SGP) gives us even more added action. Let’s find some plus-money SGP picks for every game on the Week 8 Sunday afternoon slate.

Keep in mind the odds below are accurate as of writing but are always subject to change up until kickoff. Keep track of any of the latest NFL injury news and odds movement before locking in any of these SGP bets. Without further ado, let’s dive into the best NFL Week 8 Same Game Parlay bets before the games get underway.

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Best NFL Same Game Parlay Bets (Week 8)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions

The Lions boast one of the best offenses in the NFL, averaging 30.3 PPG. Detroit has been rolling lately with conference wins over Seattle, Dallas, and Minnesota in the past three games. Yet, this is a potential letdown and sandwich spot for a team as hot as this. 

Detroit is coming off an emotional road win last week against the division-rival Vikings and have another big NFC North matchup at Green Bay next week. In between, the Lions have to play the 1-5 Titans who just lost by 24 to Buffalo a week ago. We're not saying Tennessee will necessarily cover the spread, but the under looks like the way to go. 

Despite their poor record, the Titans have been better than you'd think defensively. Tennessee is allowing a league-low 272.2 total yards per game with a top-5 pass defense and top-10 rush defense. Only one opponent has scored more than 30 points against this defense, which was the Bills last week. The Lions should score enough to win, but it likely won't be a huge outburst like we saw against the Cowboys. 

Since the spread indicates an easy win for Detroit, we could see the offense take its foot off the gas in the second half and fourth quarter if the lead is comfortable. Expect a ton of carries for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs as the Lions just try to get out with a win and save their "A" effort for the Packers next week. Plus, the offense will now be without explosive playmaker Jameson Williams as the wideout is suspended for two games. 

Meanwhile, the Titans have one of the league's worst offenses, averaging 17.7 PPG (27th in NFL) and 259.2 total yards per game (31st). It's likely Mason Rudolph at quarterback again with Will Levis still recovering from a shoulder injury. Now DeAndre Hopkins has been traded away, leaving the offense with one less difference-maker. Every Tennessee game has seen 44 or fewer points scored and that shouldn't change this week. 

With Hopkins gone, targets are up for grabs in the Titans offense. Calvin Ridley already leads the team in yards (183) and targets (36). He should play a bigger role moving forward. Plus, Treylon Burks was placed on IR this week, which puts Ridley and Tyler Boyd as the only reliable receivers left. Ridley has 40+ yards in three of six games and it was encouraging to see him get nine targets last week despite three down games beforehand. Detroit is allowing the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the Titans should be trailing while throwing more. 

Sam LaPorta has had a relatively quiet season compared to what he did last year. The Lions tight end has 224 receiving yards through six games, averaging 37.3 yards per contest. However, we could see LaPorta be a larger part of the passing game now that Jameson Williams is suspended. 

Remember, LaPorta put up 889 yards last year and averaged 52.3 yards per game. Getting to 35 or more yards is a low bar for a guy who's done it in four of six games this year and 13 of 17 last season. Meanwhile, the Titans have allowed 52 yards (Dalton Kincaid) and 41 yards (Mo Alie-Cox) to tight ends in the past two games. 

Parlay Odds: +575 

Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Packers are now 5-1 in their past six games as one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are coming off a blowout win over New England in London. Honestly, the spread and total for this Week 8 matchup are both in weird gray areas as Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite with a 49.5 over/under. 

Instead, let's focus this same-game parlay on the Packers’ offense in a great matchup. Jacksonville is allowing 27.7 PPG (30th in NFL) and 376.4 total yards per game (28th). Over the past five weeks alone, the Jaguars defense has given up 31.2 PPG, with four of five opponents scoring 24+ points. This unit is struggling mightily right now, and we could now see some tired legs with the Jags returning home from a two-week stint in London. 

Take the over on Green Bay's team total. The Packers are averaging 26.6 PPG (7th) and 383.1 total yards per game (6th). It's hard to imagine the weak Jacksonville defense slowing down Jordan Love and his slew of weapons. This is arguably the best offense the Jaguars have faced since they coughed up 47 points to Buffalo in Week 3. 

The Jags have especially struggled against the pass. Their poor secondary is allowing the second-most passing yards per game (273.9) with just one interception through seven weeks. Drake Maye even threw for 276 yards in this matchup last week. Jacksonville has given up 359 yards to Joe Flacco, 345 to C.J. Stroud, 263 to Josh Allen, and 338 to Tua Tagovailoa in other notable matchups this year. Love, meanwhile, is averaging 270.2 passing yards per game. 

Let's attack the soft Jaguars secondary more with a Jayden Reed prop. The speedy wideout has been quiet lately with just 10 and 28 receiving yards in the past two weeks. However, Reed is bound to explode and he already has yardage totals of 139, 138, and 78 in other games this season. 

Parlay Odds: +415

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

The Colts and Texans will play each other for the second time this season in Week 8. Back in the first week of the year, Indianapolis hung around for the entire game before ultimately losing by just two points. In this rematch (although it is in Houston), we'll gladly take the Colts to keep it close and possibly pull the outright upset. 

The Texans are being overvalued a bit here. Despite the impressive 5-2 record, only one of their five wins has been by more than six points. Houston has squeaked out multiple close victories and hasn't dominated opponents (besides the lowly Patriots). C.J. Stroud has also not been as efficient or consistent lately without Nico Collins. In the past two games with Collins sidelined, Stroud has thrown for 192 and 86 yards - one of which came against New England's weaker defense.

Meanwhile, the Colts have quietly won four of their past five games. Plus, three of their losses have come by a total of 11 points with each deficit at six points or fewer. Anthony Richardson returned last week and should be more comfortable after shaking off some rust. The Colts offense may also get a major boost with Jonathan Taylor potentially back in the lineup. Taylor's return can help Richardson be more effective and forces the Houston defense to respect the run more. 

Interestingly, the Texans haven't beaten the Colts twice in a season since 2016. By that logic, Indianapolis could win this outright as they seek some revenge from that close Week 1 loss. Take the points with the road underdogs, though, as this should be a one-possession game. The Colts are 6-1 ATS this year while Houston is 3-3-1.

The Colts' rush defense has been a matchup to target all season with running back props. Let's do it again with Joe Mixon. The Houston back has 401 rushing yards through four games played with 100+ in each of his three fully healthy games. He had 159 against Indy back in Week 1, which started a trend. The Colts are allowing 159.9 rush yards per game (31st in NFL) with 90+ yards allowed to four different opposing lead backs and 77 to another. 

To wrap up this SGP, let's have some fun by banking on both teams to score in the fourth quarter. This happened in their first meeting and we should see the division rivals trade scores late again this week. This season, the Texans and Colts have both scored in the fourth quarter in five of seven of their games for a combined 10-4 record on the stat. 

Parlay Odds: +430

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

After starting the season 0-2, the Ravens have now won five straight games while looking like a legit Super Bowl contender. It all starts with the offense, which has been nearly unstoppable with Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP level. Baltimore has scored at least 28 points in five straight games, averaging 35 PPG during this winning streak. 

As impressive as the Ravens have been offensively, their defense has shown some cracks. Baltimore is giving up 25.7 PPG (26th in NFL) and 355.6 total yards per game (23rd). Opponents have scored at least 23 points against this defense in six of seven games so far, with the Bengals and Buccaneers putting up 38 and 31 in two of the last three weeks, respectively.  

Specifically, the Ravens secondary has struggled. They're allowing the league's most passing yards per game (287.1), the third-most pass TDs (14), and the sixth-highest opposing quarterback rating (101.6). As we back the Baltimore team total, let's also count on the over hitting as well. The Ravens are 6-1 to the over this year with their high-powered offense and shaky secondary. 

The Browns likely won't keep this game close, but they may put up more points than you expect. The offense is going through two major changes this week with Jameis Winston now at quarterback and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey taking over playcalling duties from Kevin Stefanski. Winston can give the offense a boost after the unit was very underwhelming with Deshaun Watson under center. Plus, Nick Chubb returning last week now gives Cleveland even more added life offensively. 

When Winston entered as the emergency third QB last week, he immediately led a 12-play, 60-yard touchdown drive. In those limited snaps, he targeted Cedric Tillman twice and the two connected on a clutch 25-yard reception on a 3rd-and-15. It was part of a breakout game for Tillman, who had eight catches for 81 yards on 12 targets as he moved into a starting role after the Amari Cooper trade. Tillman should continue to be a top target for Winston, who historically loves throwing to his receivers over running backs and tight ends. 

Parlay Odds: +415

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals 

This cross-conference game between the Eagles and Bengals is one of the more interesting matchups of the weekend. We have two teams that have underperformed relative to expectations so far this season. Cincinnati is 3-4 but the three wins have come against three bad teams (Giants, Browns and Panthers). Philadelphia is 4-3 with only one win against a team with a winning record (Packers). 

Admittedly, it's tough to get a read on both squads right now. You can make legit arguments to back the Eagles or Bengals on the spread. Plus, the total seems high for two inconsistent offenses. Instead of making a pick on the spread or total, though, let's focus on some different props for this same-game parlay. 

First off, let's count on the first quarter being the lowest scoring one of the game. Believe it or not, the Eagles have yet to score a single point in the first quarter this season. The offense has looked clunky and hesitant early on in games and it's hard to see that changing on the road here. Meanwhile, there have been seven points or fewer scored in the first quarter in all but one of Cincinnati's games this year.

Last week was a forgettable one for DeVonta Smith, who finished with -2 receiving yards, one catch and two targets. It was a very uncharacteristic game for one of the league's most underrated receivers, but it deserves context. The Eagles only threw it 14 times compared to 45 rush attempts. This week, the game script calls for much more passing with Philly as a slight road underdog and a 48 game total. 

Don't forget, Smith had 64+ yards in each of his first four games this season. He's also averaged 66.6 yards and 70.4 yards per game in the past two seasons and is due for a better outing this week. The Bengals’ defense will likely try to focus coverage on A.J. Brown and attempt to shut down Saquon Barkley in the run game. It should leave Smith with more one-on-one opportunities and he's bound to bounce back. 

Let's also back Jalen Hurts to throw for multiple scores. The Bengals have allowed 14 passing touchdowns through seven games. The defense has also given up multiple pass TDs to four of the past six opposing QBs. The two outliers came in the past two games against the Browns and Giants - which isn't saying much. The Philly passing attack is a much tougher test. Hurts only has 2+ passing touchdowns in two of six games this season, but he also had to make do without Smith and Brown for many of those. 

Parlay Odds: +950

New York Jets at New England Patriots

The Jets are now on a four-game losing streak after slipping up again last week at Pittsburgh. With a 2-5 record both straight up and against the spread, it's been impossible to trust this team. Yet, here we have Aaron Rodgers and Co. as a touchdown road favorite in a divisional matchup. 

If there ever was a time to back New York one more time, it's this week in a crucial get-right spot against a poor New England squad. The Jets’ offense should be better with Rodgers and Davante Adams having another week to get on the same page. The Patriots' defense has been very beatable recently, allowing 32 points and 364 total yards to Jacksonville and 41 points/368 yards to Houston in the past two weeks. Back in Week 3, Rodgers had his best game of the season against this defense with a 118.9 quarterback rating and 77.1% completion rate. 

Meanwhile, the Patriots have lost six straight games with a 1-5-1 ATS record this year. Drake Maye has brought some more excitement to the offense, but the Pats have still lost by 20 and 16 points in the past two weeks. New England also has to deal with a notable travel disadvantage playing this game right after a London trip. We've seen teams historically struggle in games right after an international matchup with no bye in between. 

After allowing 37 points last week, the Jets’ defense should be better in an easier matchup. Plus, elite edge rusher Haason Reddick could suit up to bolster the defensive line after he agreed to a contract this week. The New York defense hasn't been a big worry this year, allowing 292.4 total yards per game (6th in NFL) with 21 sacks in six games (also 6th). 

In his first game with the Jets last week, Adams only had three receptions for 30 yards. However, he was targeted nine times, which was tied for the team lead. That's encouraging and it's only a matter of time until he and Rodgers combine for a big game. 

Let's also take the over on Breece Hall's rushing yards. New England has been getting gashed on the ground by opposing backs lately. In the past four games, the Patriots have allowed 118 rushing yards to Tank Bigsby, 102 to Joe Mixon, 80+ to both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright, and 123 to Jordan Mason. Last week, Hall had a quiet 38 yards but he went for 113 vs. Buffalo the game before. He's due for another big outing. 

Parlay Odds: +460

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins

If you haven't heard, Tua Tagovailoa is returning for Miami this week. It should go without saying that a healthy Tua, even with the concussion questions surrounding him, is a massive upgrade over Tyler Huntley, Tim Boyle and Skylar Thompson. Whether you agree with the Dolphins and his decision to play or not, we have to admit this should make the Miami offense much more efficient and dangerous. 

On the other side, we have a Cardinals team on a short week, having to travel cross-country. Arizona is 3-4 on the season, but they could easily have two more losses. The Cards won on Monday night with a last-second game-winning field goal but were lucky to even be in that position. They benefited majorly from two key Chargers fumbles in the first quarter, which allowed Arizona to hang around and steal a win. 

Plus, back in Week 5, the Cardinals upset the 49ers despite trailing by 13 at halftime and by 10 heading into the fourth quarter. Getting the win is impressive, but it may be more because San Fran blew it than Arizona being the better team. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' four losses this year have all come by 6+ points with two losses by three or more touchdowns. 

With Arizona coming off a win, it's a good time to fade them now going on the road to Miami. Believe it or not, the Cardinals with Kyler Murray at quarterback have not won consecutive games since the 2021 season. That's 11 straight outright losses and 3-8 ATS in games right after a win during that stretch. Murray can't string together multiple good games in a row and we can't expect that to change now. 

The Dolphins defense is allowing a league-low 154.5 passing yards per game. Only one opposing quarterback has thrown for even 200+ yards against Miami this year. As for Murray, he's averaging just 190.1 pass yards per game with fewer than 215 yards in six of seven contests. 

As noted above, the Miami offense overall should improve with Tua coming. The passing game obviously gets a boost, but the Dolphins would be smart to go with a run-focused game plan to ease their quarterback in. Enter De'Von Achane, who returned last week and ran for 77 yards on 15 carries for a 5.1 ypc average. He can have another productive day on the ground with Arizona allowing 139.6 rushing yards per game (26th in NFL).

Parlay Odds: +440

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before Monday Night Football kicked off last week, Tampa Bay was favored at home here in a classic home revenge spot in a divisional matchup. The Buccaneers lost in overtime on the road at Atlanta in Week 5, but it was a game they should have won. Then, both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans suffered significant injuries on Monday, and the line has flipped to the Falcons as favorites. 

Godwin is likely out for the season with a dislocated ankle while Evans' hamstring injury should sideline him for a few games at least. These are massive losses to a Tampa offense that now severely lacks difference-making pass-catchers. Baker Mayfield was playing well but his efficiency and production should regress without his top two receivers. Trying to replace them on a short week is another added worry too. 

Meanwhile, this is a good time to back Atlanta coming off a loss to Seattle last week. The Falcons lost by 20 at home and got exposed a bit. They should correct things and be more amped up for this divisional game. The Falcons boast a 3-0 record against NFC South opponents already this season. A win here would put them firmly in the driver's seat for the division moving forward. 

The Bucs defense is allowing 26.0 PPG (28th in NFL) and 386 total yards per game (31st). Atlanta's offense is putting up 368.4 total yards per game (7th) and has scored 38, 36, and 26 points in the three NFC South matchups already. The Falcons should score enough to make it tough for Tampa Bay to keep it close. 

With Godwin and Evans out, Cade Otton is now a top target for Mayfield by default. The Tampa tight end is coming off a huge 100-yard game on eight catches and a team-high 10 targets last week. He should be a focus in the Bucs' passing game, with multiple backup receivers stepping into bigger roles around him. Otton has 40+ yards in four of the past five games and should be locked in for targets. 

Let's stick with the Tampa offense and grab the over on Rachaad White's combined rushing and receiving yards. The running back will also be a bigger part of the Bucs' offensive game plan now that Godwin and Evans are sidelined. Plus, Bucky Irving is dealing with a toe injury and could be out or limited this week. White has 227 rushing yards and 198 receiving yards this season, averaging a combined 70.8 yards per game. He has at least 66 total yards in three straight and four of six games this year. 

Parlay Odds: +470

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks

This Bills vs. Seahawks matchup should be one of the more competitive games on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo is coming off a blowout win over Tennessee and sit at 5-2 on the season. Seattle bounced back from a three-game losing streak with a 20-point win at Atlanta last week. It sets up a marquee cross-conference showdown in Week 8. 

When looking closer at the Bills, check out the teams they've beaten thus far: Cardinals, Dolphins, Jaguars, Jets, Titans. All have a losing record. Meanwhile, Buffalo has lost both times when facing a team with a winning record (Ravens and Texans). We've yet to see the Bills prove they can do it against a playoff-caliber opponent - and they even looked shaky against the Jets a couple of weeks ago. Their record and offensive/defensive stats may also be a bit inflated considering the weaker competition. 

Seattle, on the other hand, boasts victories over Atlanta and Denver so far. Yes, the Seahawks have losses against the 49ers and Lions this year. Still, the win against the Falcons last week was especially impressive to get them back on track and in the driver's seat for the NFC West. The Seahawks (25.7 PPG) have the offense to keep pace with the Bills (28.4 PPG).

This is also just a brutal stretch in Buffalo's schedule right now. This will be the Bills' fourth road game in five weeks and their fifth road trip through the first eight weeks. Seattle on the other hand, had their bye two weeks ago and are getting healthier on defense. D.K. Metcalf is trending toward being out with a knee injury, but Seattle still has Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as more-than-capable receivers. 

Seattle's offense should rely heavily on Kenneth Walker in this matchup. Buffalo is giving up 5.1 yards per carry (29th in NFL) and the defense has had trouble covering backs in the passing game. The Bills have allowed 60+ rushing yards to an opposing running back in five of the past six games. They've also given up 50+ receiving yards to an RB in four of the past six. 

Walker does both for Seattle with 303 rushing yards and 160 receiving yards through five games. That's 60.6 rush yards and 32 receiving yards per contest with a combined average of 92.6 yards. He also has 90+ total yards in three of five games this year. Though Walker is dealing with an illness, he played through it last week and put up 93 total yards.

Even with Amari Cooper in the mix last week, Khalil Shakir still racked up seven receptions on seven targets with 65 yards. His role in the offense shouldn't be affected too much because he's still one of the top short-yardage pass-catching options for Josh Allen. He now has 4+ catches in four of the past five games. This week, that role could expand with tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox both banged up. 

Parlay Odds: +600

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers

After the first two weeks of the season, New Orleans was 2-0 with a +62 point differential. Well, a lot's changed since then. The Saints are now stuck in a five-game losing streak and dealing with a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball. They've lost by double-digits in three straight with final deficits of 23 and 24 points in the past two games. 

Back to the Saints' lengthy injury report. Derek Carr is still sidelined, so it's Spencer Rattler for at least one more week. He's struggled as the starter and has gotten sacked 11 times in two games. Last week, Rattler threw for just 172 yards on 35 attempts as the offense mustered only three total points until late in the fourth quarter. 

Chris Olave sat out with a concussion and his status is up in the air this week. With Rashid Shaheed done for the year, the receiving corps severely lacks playmakers and trusted options for Rattler - especially if Olave sits again. On the offensive line, starting guards Cesar Ruiz and Nick Saldiveri are both questionable, while centers Connor McGovern and Lucas Patrick are banged up as well. The Saints offense is basically Alvin Kamara and not much else at this point. 

It's hard to expect much from this injured and struggling offense on the road against the Chargers. Los Angeles is allowing a league-low 13.8 PPG this season while allowing just 295.8 total yards per game (7th in NFL). Jesse Minter's defense should cause issues for the rookie Rattler. 

We've seen the Buccaneers and Broncos put up 51 and 33 points against the Saints in the past two weeks, respectively. Though the Chargers are only averaging 17.7 PPG themselves, they should have success and build a lead in this matchup. Greg Roman's run-focused offense can carve up a New Orleans run defense that's giving up 146.7 rushing yards per game (29th) and 5.4 yards per carry (31st). 

On that note, J.K. Dobbins can rack up yards this week as Los Angeles' lead back. He has at least 96 yards in three of six games this season and should bounce back after being limited to only 40 yards on 14 carries last week. The Saints have allowed 80+ yards to five different backs in the past five games, including 100+ to three of those. 

Parlay Odds: +440

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

With an upset win over San Francisco last week, the Chiefs are now 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS. As impressive as this hot start is, we're reaching the peak of the mark for Kansas City now. It's always scary to fade the back-to-back Super Bowl champs in any given game, but we'll try to do it here on the road in a divisional matchup. 

As noted, the Chiefs may be valued too high now despite the undefeated record. Four of their six wins have been one-possession games and they could have a couple of losses if not for some early-season luck. Kansas City is getting it done with an elite defense holding opponents to 17.2 PPG (5th in NFL). Yet, the offense isn't exactly lighting it up every week while averaging 24.3 PPG (13th). 

The KC offense will get a boost the rest of the season with DeAndre Hopkins coming over via trade this week. Still, it may take a couple of games for him to get up to speed and build rapport with Patrick Mahomes. As for the Chiefs quarterback, he has more interceptions (8) than touchdowns thrown (6) this season, and has a 1:4 TD:INT ratio over the past three games. The Chiefs have survived those turnovers so far but it's bound to catch up to them. 

Plus, this is a prime letdown spot after an emotional victory in last week's Super Bowl rematch against the 49ers. The road matchup at Las Vegas also comes right before a home Monday night game next week. Furthermore, the Chiefs are just 3-6-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite over the past two seasons. One of those was an outright home loss last year to the Raiders as 11.5-point favorites. 

The Raiders, admittedly, don't offer much confidence. They're 2-5 on the season with a 3-4 ATS mark. Yet, Vegas is 2-0 ATS as an underdog of a touchdown or more so far. Gardner Minshew is back at quarterback, which is tough with no running game to lean on and a Chiefs defense that's routinely shutting down opposing run games. 

Even so, 10 points is just too much in a divisional rivalry setting - especially on the road. The Chiefs are 6-9 ATS as road favorites over the previous two years and are 2-0 already this season. Hold your nose and back the Raiders to keep it close enough. 

The Raiders have a top-10 pass defense this season, allowing 180.1 yards per game (8th in NFL). Conversely, Vegas is giving up 4.8 yards per carry (26th) and 136.7 rushing yards per game (23rd). Look for the Chiefs to keep it on the ground in this matchup. Plus, the game script likely favors the run game more if KC is leading in the second half. Kareem Hunt has run for 69, 102 and 78 yards in his three games with the Chiefs and he's seen 22 and 27 carries in the past two games. He's the workhorse right now as long as Isiah Pacheco remains sidelined. 

Let's also grab the under on Mahomes' passing yards with that game flow and matchup in mind. Mahomes is averaging 231.5 passing yards per game with less than 250 in four of his past five. Again, the Vegas defense has been softer against the run than the pass. Plus, the spread and lower total suggest the Chiefs won't be needing a huge game from their quarterback to get out with a win. 

Parlay Odds: +550

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders 

The Commanders will presumably be without their star rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels this week after he suffered a rib injury last game. Daniels is labeled as "week-to-week" but appears doubtful after not practicing. That means it's Marcus Mariota under center for Washington. 

Instead of looking at the spread or total for this matchup against Chicago, let's just focus on the Commanders’ team total. Mariota looked fine last week in relief of Daniels, but it came against the terrible Panthers defense. Things get tougher with Chicago allowing just 16.8 PPG this year (4th in NFL). 

The Bears haven't allowed more than 21 points in any game yet this year and they've given up fewer than 20 in all but one contest. Chicago boasts a top-10 pass defense and should be dialed in to frustrate Mariota. Plus, the Bears are well-rested coming out of a bye week. 

With Mariota at quarterback, Zach Ertz should be one of his safety valves. The Washington tight end is second on the team in all major receiving categories with 25 catches, 34 targets, and 268 yards through seven games - only trailing Terry McLaurin. He's averaging 38.3 yards per game with 38+ yards in four of the past six. 

Last week with Mariota playing most of the game, Ertz had 40 yards on four catches with a touchdown reception. The Bears, meanwhile, have allowed at least 33 yards to opposing tight ends in four of the past five games. It's a low bar but one that Ertz can eclipse. 

After starting the season slowly, D'Andre Swift has picked it up over the past month. The Bears running back has 91, 73 and 93 rushing yards over the past three games, with at least 16 carries in each contest. He'll face a Washington defense that's allowing 4.9 yards per carry (27th in NFL) this year. The Commanders have also given up 60+ rushing yards to an opposing RB in five of seven games, allowing an average of 79.1 yards per game to lead backs. 

Parlay Odds: +425

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos

The Panthers are an automatic fade at this point. Carolina is 1-6 both straight up and ATS, with all six losses by double-digits and an average losing margin of 24.5 points. They just got blown out by Washington, 40-7, despite Jayden Daniels getting hurt early and Marcus Mariota in at quarterback for most of the game. The Panthers closed as 10.5-point underdogs last week, and it didn't even matter. 

Carolina now has to deal with another quarterback change back to Bryce Young with Andy Dalton out after getting in a car accident this week. It may not matter who is in at QB right now, but Young doesn't offer much confidence. In the first two games of the season, he threw for just 161 and 84 yards with a 0:3 TD:INT ratio and six sacks. Young might be good in the future, but he's not right now, and this offense is not in a good situation with multiple injuries/absences along the offensive line and in the receiving corps. 

The Denver defense should keep the Panthers in check just like almost every other team has done. Vance Joseph's defense leads the league in blitz rate, which is trouble for an inexperienced quarterback like Young - especially with O-line issues in front of him. Top corner Patrick Surtain is also expected back after sitting out last week. The Broncos are allowing only 15.1 PPG (3rd in NFL) and 282.4 total yards per game (3rd). 

It's asking a lot from the Denver offense to build and maintain a lead to cover the large spread. Yet, Bo Nix and Co. did just that last week when they put up 33 points in a double-digit win. In fact, three of the Broncos' four wins this year have come by at least two touchdowns. 

The Broncos can lean on Javonte Williams and the ground game against a poor Carolina run defense. The Panthers are allowing a league-high 162.1 rushing yards per game with 13 rush TDs allowed through seven games (also a league-high). The defense has also allowed 70+ yards and a TD to an opposing rusher in all but one game this year with lead backs averaging 90.5 yards per game in those six contests. 

Williams is averaging just 43 rushing yards per game this year. Still, he's been more productive lately with 88, 61 and 77 yards in three of the past four weeks. The game script favors him as well, assuming Denver has a lead for most of the afternoon. In a favorable matchup last week vs. New Orleans, Williams ran for 88 yards and two scores with a 6.3 yards per carry average. 

Parlay Odds: +430


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