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NFL Week 9 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

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Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone by scoring a touchdown this Sunday (excludes the Sunday night game).

Below are my year-to-date results (assumes one unit per prop):

Week Units ROI Record
YTD +1.7 3.0% 23 – 36
4 +0.6 5.2% 5 – 7
5 +5.8 44.6% 4 – 9
6 -7.0 -63.6% 2 – 9
7 +2.0 17.8% 6 – 5
8 +0.4 3.0% 6 – 6

 

Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons

Palmer will lead the WR group for the Chargers this week, with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen likely out. He has already needed to step up in Allen’s absence, and Herbert has targeted him eight or more times in three out of five games before missing Week 7 with a concussion. Palmer has not done much with those targets but does have a TD and a hundred-yard game this season. The Falcons rank dead last in passing yards allowed per game, so Palmer should have plenty of opportunity to score in a game that is tied for the highest total on the slate (49.5).

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Both of these defenses have been susceptible to the run this season. The Lions rank 30th (154.9), and the Packers rank 29th (141.4) in terms of rushing yards allowed per game this season. Over the last two weeks, the Packers have featured Aaron Jones in both the pass and run game, averaging 21.5 opportunities per game. That game plan should continue and allows Jones to have a couple of outs to reach the end zone every week. In a difficult matchup in Buffalo last week, Jones was able to rush for 143 yards on 20 carries against a Bills team that was leading the league in rushing yards allowed per game heading into that matchup.

Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears

This pick is speculative, but there is a chance the Dolphins can get Wilson quickly up to speed after trading for him on Tuesday. He comes from a similar system in San Francisco and is familiar with Mike McDaniel during their time together. The backfield belongs to Raheem Mostert, but it’s possible Wilson quickly grabs a share of this backfield. Edmonds started the season as the lead back and fell out of favor, and there is a chance that Wilson can take over this backfield at some point, given Mostert’s age and injury history. This week may be a long shot for a significant amount of carries, but a matchup against the 31st-ranked Bears run defense is worth a chance to find the end zone.

Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals

Even with the loss of Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals’ offensive performance was shocking on Halloween night. They came into that matchup playing extremely well the two weeks prior, averaging 32.5 points and four passing TDs per game. The matchup this week at home against the Panthers as 7-point favorites provides a bounce-back opportunity for Burrow and company. Despite the poor overall performance, Burrow was able to connect with Higgins on a 41-yard TD in garbage time. This connection should continue into this week, with Chase remaining out. Higgins has five red zone targets over the last two weeks.

Las Vegas Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars

Etienne has become a weekly feature for this article, and he has come through each of the last two weeks. I see no reason to go away a week after he had 27 touches for 166 yards in London. He is the clear feature back and has looked the part by averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season (4th in the NFL). The Raiders were destroyed by Alvin Kamara, a similar back to Etienne, last week. Kamara had 158 total yards and three TDs. Etienne should be in store for another big game.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Stevenson has three rushing TDs over his last three weeks and averages 22.3 opportunities per game. Even with Damien Harris taking 11 carries and two targets away from Stevenson last week, he still had 23 touches for 143 yards. Unfortunately, he did not find the end zone, but Stevenson does rank second in the league with five carries inside the five over the last three weeks. It is also worth noting that Harris has missed practice this week with an illness. With the Patriots’ five-point favorites at home, Stevenson should have a good shot to find the end zone.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

The Bills have the highest team total (28.75) on the slate. Josh Allen is always a threat with his legs, averaging over seven rushes per game. He hasn’t scored a rushing TD since Week 4, but he continues to give himself opportunities in the red zone each week. He has 14 red zone carries on the season, and there should be plenty of TDs to go around this week for the Bills. The Bills’ offense can overcome any matchup, but the Jets’ defense ranks inside the top 10 in both passing and rushing yards per game.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders

With Taylor Heinicke under center the last two weeks, McLaurin is averaging 93 yards and 8 targets (26.7% target share). He found the end zone in Heinicke’s first start, and McLaurin was tackled at the 1-yard line to set up the game-winning TD against the Colts last week. The Vikings’ secondary ranks 30th in the league in passing yards allowed per game, so Heinicke and McLaurin should have plenty of opportunity to keep the connection going.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

In the two games since his return from suspension, Hopkins is averaging 131 yards and 13.5 targets, good for a 39.1% target share. All three metrics rank at the top of the league during that span. Murray has also targeted Hopkins six times in the red zone, and he converted one of those for a score last week. The total (49.5) in this matchup is tied for the highest on the day, so Hopkins should be able to continue to be the focal point of the Cardinals’ offense in a high-scoring game.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Godwin is averaging 12 targets per game over the last three weeks. He has only caught about half of those targets, but the volume has been there. Godwin has not found the end zone this year after averaging seven TDs a season for the past four seasons. He has a good opportunity to end the drought if he continues to see the same volume from Brady. The Rams’ defense comes off a loss against the 49ers in which they gave up 31 points.

(Data per PFF | Odds as of Friday afternoon)

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