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NFL Week 9 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 9 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 9 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 9 games on Sunday. Note that the Sunday night and Monday night games will be getting their own dedicated articles.

NFL Week 9 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Saints -7
  • Bills -6
  • Eagles -7.5
  • Cardinals -1.5

Top Underdogs:

  • Browns +1
  • Broncos +9.5

Top Totals:

  • GB/DET under 48
  • NO/CAR under 43.5

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons

Sides

  • The road team has won eight of the Cowboys' last nine games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in eight of the Cowboys' last 10 games.
  • Dallas is 4-7 ATS and straight up as a road underdog.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games as home underdogs.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 19 of the Cowboys' last 26 games.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They have lost three straight home games.
  • They are 3-1 on the road this season and ATS.
  • The Cowboys have won the first half in each of their last five road games.
  • The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 9-5 as home favorites on the money line.
  • The Falcons are 9-14-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 7-6 straight up.
  • The underdogs have won 11 of the Falcons’ last 20 games.
  • The Falcons are 5-5 ATS on the road, 3-4 ATS as road favorites, and 6-12 ATS on the road straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have won five of their last seven games.
  • Atlanta is 9-5 on the money line as home favorites (14-9 at home overall).
  • The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 5-9 ATS (36%).
  • The Falcons have won seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Cowboys' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Cowboys' last 21 games (67%) have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders in the last 13 of 19 games through the air.
  • Games in Dallas have averaged north of 58 points this season (3-0 O/U).
  • Since 2023, Dallas is 9-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 53 points per game.
  • Fourteen of the Cowboys' last 17 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Atlanta is 2-3 towards the over this season at home, averaging just under 46 points per game.
  • The Falcons are 4-4 O/U this season.
  • Five of the Falcons’ last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Atlanta is 2-1 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging 50.5 points.
  • At home, they are 2-3 O/U, averaging 46.2 points per game.
  • Four of the Falcons’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The Falcons are home favorites against a Dallas Cowboys team that only has won its games on the road this season. What could go wrong? Well, against the Cowboys, they might stand a chance of covering the 3-point spread, given that Dallas hasn't been the most profitable backing as a road underdog. That being said, the last two times Dallas has been +3 on the road this season, they have covered and won outright.

Dallas' offense is dysfunctional. No question. But Atlanta's defense might be the worst unit they have faced all season.

Case in point, there's a reason why the total in this game is so high-52 points, rising from the 48.5 opening line.

Both defenses are bad.

The Falcons’ offense is good, especially when they have faced bad defenses like the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Saints.

It’s hard to imagine we don't get a flurry of points at home in the dome. The one hesitation for slamming the over comes down to a potential run-heavy approach from Atlanta against the Dallas Cowboys’ terrible run defense. According to Next Gen Stats, Bijan Robinson has recorded a 57.6% success rate on under-center runs this season, the highest rate among 36 running backs with at least 30 carries.

Robinson has gained 176 yards and scored a touchdown across 33 such carries, resulting in 5.3 yards per carry, the 7th-most among the same group of 36 running backs. Matchup: the Cowboys’ defense has given up the most touchdowns (11) and allowed the 2nd-highest success rate (49.3%) against under-center runs this season.

The Falcons have a -4% pass rate over expectation in the last three weeks.

If Atlanta controls this game, they can simply run the ball. They need to be pushed into a more aggressive mindset by Dallas. Whether Big D's offense shows up or not...well the jury is out. Dallas has the worst red-zone defense in the NFL and second-worst red-zone offense.

Per Next Gen Stats, Dak Prescott has thrown into a tight window on a league-high 22.5% of his passes this season, making him the only qualified quarterback with a mark over 20%. Prescott has completed 7 of 12 tight window passes for 127 yards and a touchdown when targeting Jalen Tolbert but just 11 of 47 tight window passes for 137 yards and two interceptions when targeting all other receivers. The Falcons defense has forced a tight window on 18.0% of passes this season, the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.

What works in Prescott's favor in this game from a passing perspective is that he should have time in the pocket because the Falcons can't generate pressure. The issue is Prescott has the third-worst passer rating from a clean pocket.

Atlanta has been horrible defending lightbox fronts (4th-most yards allowed), using its defense in that formation at the 7th-highest rate in the NFL. The Falcons are also bad against rushing inside the tackles (29th in EPA/rush and 29th in rushing yards allowed per game).

Every running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus yards in all but one game).

I think Dallas could try to establish some type of run game with Rico Dowdle back in the lineup. A few weeks ago, I fell for the game total over in Atlanta when it was Seahawks-Falcons, and I refuse to make the same mistake again. Even if we see points, I'm still taking the under on this severely bloated total.

Props:

Jalen Tolbert has at least 40.5 receiving yards in three straight games and in five of his last six.

Mike McCarthy spoke at length last week about getting running back Rico Dowdle more touches. I'd envision he will see more schemed-up plays as a receiver, given that the Falcons rank fourth in receptions to RBs this season. Dowdle has at least 16.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, and all but two RBs the Falcons have faced this season have yet to exceed their receiving yards prop.

No quarterback that Dallas has faced has attempted between 28 and 39 attempts. It's either been extremely under (four times) OR extremely over (40-plus attempts). Considering Kirk Cousins has only gone over his pass attempts twice this season, easy under play here against a Cowboys defense that ranks second in run rate faced this season.

My Picks:

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants

Sides:

  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 14 games. They are 6-1 ATS and straight up in their last seven games.
  • The Commanders have lost seven of their last 11 home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 11 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Giants are 9-7 ATS over their last 16 games.
  • The Giants have lost nine of their last 13 road games.
  • The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
  • The Giants are 8-13 ATS as road underdogs.
  • They are 1-3 ATS at home this season.
  • The road team has covered the spread in four of the Giants' last six games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in each of the Giants' last four road games.
  • The Giants are 12-6-1 at home ATS and as home underdogs, 69% ATS (9-4-1).
  • New York is 6-3 ATS (67%) in their last nine divisional matchups.
  • The Giants have lost each of their last four home games.

Totals:

  • Four of the Commanders' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Commanders' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the Commanders’ last eight road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 6-3 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 13-3 toward the OVER.
  • The Giants are 7-10 toward the over in the last 17 games
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in seven of their last 14 games.
  • Seven of the Giants' last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Giants’ last 12 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Commanders’ defense is night and day on the road compared to at home. They are the No. 2 defense in yards per game at home this season. They rank 30th in that category on the road. Some might view this as noisy, but we saw this splits trend last season with the Browns.

The betting trends favor Big Blue catching points at home. We saw these teams face off earlier this season in a breakout game for Malik Nabers. The Giants didn't give up a touchdown on defense, but they still lost by three points (21-18).

New York has continued to stifle teams in the red zone, boasting the fifth-best red zone defense.

Their defense, in general, has been pretty underrated. According to Next Gen Stats, the Giants have recorded a 35.0% pressure rate this season (10th), including a 44.2% pressure rate when blitzing (11th). They have a 35.7% pressure-to-sack conversion rate (1st) while recording a sack on a league-high 12.5% of dropbacks.

They rank dead last offensively in the red zone. Washington's offense has also had red-zone struggles, ranking 24th in red-zone TD conversion rate.

MetLife Stadium is home to the unders (one over combined between Jets/Giants), whereas the Commanders' road defense has created shootout game environments.

There's a push-and-pull dichotomy here when choosing sides, which is pushing me away from this game with a spread of a field goal plus. Remember the last time these teams played, the Giants didn't have a kicker? Early in the week, I was bullish on Commanders -3. But I don't feel nearly as great with the line moved to 3.5/4 in certain spots.

Ultimately, my most confident projection in this game is betting on the Commanders’ rushing offense. As presented by Next Gen Stats, Brian Robinson has recorded +67 rushing yards over expected on inside rushes this season, the fifth-most in the NFL.

Robinson has totaled 69 carries for 311 yards and five touchdowns on such carries. Robinson recorded 10 carries for 109 yards (10.9 YPC) and +74 rushing yards over expected on inside rushes against the Giants in Week 2, the most RYOE on such carries by a running back in a game this season. The Giants have allowed +163 rushing yards over expected to inside carries this season, most in the NFL.

I expect both offenses to pile up yardage in this game, with the O/U likely coming down to red-zone efficiency. Washington's red-zone defense isn't great, and their lapses on the road have me looking toward the over.

And even though the Giants have a good red zone defense, you can only keep this Commanders offense at bay for so long. Had one of their seven field goals been a TD the last time these teams met, or the Giants converted any of their extra-point attempts, this game would have gone over 43.5 points.

Props:

Brian Robinson destroyed the Giants’ defense to the tune of 133 rushing yards when these teams first played back in Week 2.

Malik Nabers has four games with 7-plus catches and two with four or fewer. If he is going over his reception prop (like he did back in Week 2 against the Commanders with ten catches), it will go WAY over the line. Bet it at plus money.

Tight end Zach Ertz was a key target in Week 8, hauling in 7 of his 11 targets for 77 yards. Ertz commanded a high 32.35% target share, contributing 113 air yards (27.16%). He has at least 3.5 catches in three straight games as the pseudo No. 2 WR for the Commanders.

My Picks:

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns

Sides:

  • The Chargers are 4-3 ATS this season.
  • The Chargers have scored first in five of their last six games.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in six of the Chargers' last seven games.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Browns have lost eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 12 games as favorites and 9-5 as a favorite.
  • The Browns are 6-9-1 ATS in their last 15 road appearances as underdogs and 5-2 as home underdogs.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 home games.
  • Cleveland is 9-4 on the ML at home.
  • The Browns have won their last four home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in six of their last seven home games against teams with winning records.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Chargers’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eighteen of the Chargers’ last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Chargers’ last 11 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 6-1 toward the under this season.
  • Nine of the Chargers’ last 11 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Chargers’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers have faced the fewest red-zone scores per game this season (0.7).
  • Seven of the Browns’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Browns’ last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Browns’ last 14 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 14-11-1 toward the over in their last 26 games.
  • Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season prior to last week. Go figure.
  • The Browns are 2-2 toward the over at home (43.5 points per game).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 9-4 toward the under at home.

Overall:

What do we know about the Browns when they play at home? They cover the spread. They are 71% ATS as home underdogs and 4-2 straight up. With Jameis Winston injecting new life into the Browns’ offense, I jumped early on the Browns +2.

I was perplexed that the Brownies weren't outright favorites against the Bolts.

Like I said last week, with Winston playing inspired football behind a defense that plays much better at home than on the road, I like taking the Brownies as home underdogs for the second straight game. Cleveland’s defense has shown up in back-to-back-to-back weeks against the Eagles, Bengals, and Ravens, so I think they can slow down a middling Chargers offense absent of supreme talent to come away with a second straight home upset.

For the game total, we will follow the same process we did with the sides: Play the hits, i.e., Chargers and the under.

Especially with Browns contests shading toward unders when they play at home. As good as Winston was last week, the Chargers are a tougher challenge to overcome.

The Bolts' defense ranks 5th in the fewest EPA/play allowed this season. They are also great at limiting explosive passing plays. According to Next Gen Stats, the Chargers defense has faced the 2nd-fewest air yards per attempt against (6.4) in the NFL this season, allowing the lowest completion percentage (72.5%) on attempts under 10 air yards.

Props:

According to Next Gen Stats, Ladd McConkey has recorded 238 receiving yards against man coverage this season, the 2nd-most among rookie wide receivers. McConkey set season highs in receiving yards over expected (+55), receptions over expected (+2.2), and yards per route (4.0) in Week 8. The Browns run a man-heavy defensive scheme.

In Nick Chubb's second game back from his injury, he led the rushing game with 16 carries for 52 yards, although he didn't find the end zone. These are not eye-popping numbers, but Chubb accomplished a feat no player has done against the Ravens’ elite run defense-surpassing 50 yards. With him getting healthier week by week, I love Chubb's potential against the Chargers to keep on improving. LAC does not stack the box (9%), which will help Chubb pick up yardage on the ground.

Five of the last six RBs to face the Chargers have exceeded their rushing projection, with them all hitting at least 64 rushing yards. In the last two weeks, they have allowed over 5.7 yards per carry and over 100 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.

My Picks:

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Sides:

  • The Dolphins have lost nine of their last 10 games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games.
  • Miami is below 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 2-7 overall since 2023. 4-8 as an underdog in their last 12 applicable games (33%).
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots/Colts, they came back from first-half deficits.
  • The Dolphins have lost their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 13 of their last 14 games as underdogs.
  • The Dolphins have won 20 of their last 27 home games.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Bills have won 12 of their last 13 games against the Dolphins.
  • The Bills have won 12 of their last 15 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in six of their last nine games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 16-6 as a favorite since the start of last season and 11-11 ATS.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 23 games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Bills have won their last 12 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Bills are 11-2 and 7-6 ATS at home since the start of 2023.
  • Bills are 7-6- ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have won eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents

Totals:

  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the Dolphins’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Miami is 2-2 toward the over at home this season (Over 42 points per game).
  • Five of the Dolphins' last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Bills' last six home games has gone OVER the total points line. They were 3-0 toward the over this season.
  • Six of the Bills' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bills' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line. (15 of their last 21 road games)
  • Six of the Bills' last seven games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

This AFC East rivalry has been anything but competitive over the past several seasons, with Buffalo dominating almost all the matchups.

The Dolphins have been terrible as underdogs straight up and against the spread. It's been their Achilles heel for the last several seasons. They beat bad teams but then get exposed by GREAT teams. And given their schedule thus far, Buffalo is the best offensive unit they have faced all season.

We saw them allow 31 points against the Bills in Week 2. Last week, they gave up 28 points against Arizona. Both games were at home, where Miami is "supposedly" better.

We don't always see the Bills cover larger spreads as home favorites, as they sometimes play down to their competition. But against the Dolphins, they haven't held back.

In Buffalo's last four wins against the Dolphins, they have won by 21, 7, 28, and 3 points. Don't misremember Week 2. The score was 31-10 before Tua Tagovailoa got knocked out of the game. This Bills defense has had the upper hand against Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel.

The only way I can see Miami pulling off the upset is with their ground game setting the tone against the Bills’ run defense.

Buffalo’s run defense ranks 27th in yards per carry faced this season. However, it also ranks 7th best in EPA/rush attempt-an improvement from the Cardinals run defense Miami played a week ago.

Miami will have more issues stopping the Bills' dynamic rushing attack. This season, Miami is allowing one of the league’s most explosive rush rates.

Even with Tagovailoa back, the Dolphins are still fighting a massive uphill battle on the road against Buffalo. Meanwhile, I have no reservations about Buffalo’s ability to have its way with the Dolphins’ defense, which failed the test last week at home against Arizona.

Usually, I'm not particularly eager to lay this many points with Buffalo at home, but this is a specific matchup that Josh Allen delivers in. It's also the same spot where Miami dramatically underwhelms. I would lean toward the under based on the total, but there's too much firepower for me to feel overly confident about it. The Bills have added WRs to their team since the last time these teams played, and Miami is fully healthy offensively.

Props:

The Bills defense is allowing the most yards, most catches, and most targets to RBs in the passing game this season. De'Von Achane has at least six catches in every single game that Tua Tagovailoa has started this season.

All the most comparable WRs to Jaylen Waddle vs Bills have gone OVER their reception numbers.

My Picks:

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Sides:

  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 16 of their last 18 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 16 of their last 17 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last 10 games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • Their opponents have scored first in eight of the Saints’ last 11 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Saints have lost five of the last six games.
  • The Saints are 2-6 ATS as home underdogs (7-14 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 1-7 straight up. Woof.
  • The Saints are 2-5 ATS as road favorites (29%).

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Panthers' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Panthers' last 12 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Saints’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line
  • The Saints have the eighth-best red-zone defense in the NFL (44% conversion rate).

Overall

Rewind all the way back to Week 1, and I was all over the Panthers in this spot against the Saints. Alas, Carolina hasn't exceeded expectations through the entire 2024 season. Instead, they are selling off every single asset they have. They just traded their best receiver, Diontae Johnson, to the Ravens. Andy Dalton is out, so Bryce Young will be starting again.

Meanwhile, the Saints will be getting back starting QB Derek Carr.

I've practiced restraint from betting on the Panthers the last two weeks, and it has saved my bankroll. But maybe I've just been missing out on opportunities to make money. Carolina has been a disaster. Young has a 27% record ATS. He has covered five games in 20 games played.

Even at 2-6, the Saints have the chance to play inspired by Carr’s return. The Broncos, led by Bo Nix, did whatever they wanted to against the Panthers’ defense.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Saints have scored 28.0 points per game in five games with Derek Carr as the starter and just 15.0 points per game in 3 games with Spencer Rattler as the starter.

I would expect nothing less from New Orleans in Week 9, given that one of the two times this offense has functioned well, it came against Carolina to open the season.

That said, the offense still won't be nearly as effective as it was out of the gates. Rashid Shaheed was Carr's big-play guy, and I'm concerned about the lack of sheer explosiveness from the Saints.

I projected this game much closer to 39.5 points, providing a major edge toward the under. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the last eight games between the Saints and Panthers have gone UNDER the total points line.

Props

In Week 8, Chris Olave led with eight receptions on 14 targets, totaling 107 yards at 13.4 yards per catch. Olave ran a route on 88% of dropbacks and had three red zone targets but did not score a touchdown. Olave dominated with a 37.84% target share, amassing 156 air yards, which accounted for 57.78% of the team's total air yards.

Without Rashid Shaheed for the rest of the season, Olave is looking at double-digit targets every single week. Every No. 1 WR the Panthers have faced since Week 2 has surpassed their receptions prop, with five going for at least six grabs.

My Picks

New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans

Sides:

  • The Patriots have lost 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Patriots have lost eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Patriots, as road underdogs, are 40% ATS (6-9) and 44% ATS on the road in their last 19 road contests.
  • The Titans have lost six of their last seven games as favorites. They are 3-6 ATS as home favorites (33%).
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Titans are 5-7 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 11 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Titans have lost 13 of their last 15 road games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 7-6-1 ATS (47%).

Totals:

  • Nine of the last 13 Patriots’ games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • Four of the Patriots’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots’ defense has allowed 300-plus yards in six of eight games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • New England is 12-13 toward the under in its last 24 games and 3-5 this season.
  • The Titans are 13-10-1 toward the under in their last 24 games.

Overall:

It was reported on Saturday that Drake Maye cleared the concussion protocol and will start for New England.

The Patriots defense has allowed the 5th-highest EPA per dropback (0.1) this season.

Tennessee's defense has been good against the lackluster competition, so this isn’t exactly a soft spot for the Patriots. Tennessee has been truck-sticked by the Bills/Lions on the road in back-to-back weeks, so their defensive numbers don't look nearly as good.

Even so, the Titans rank in the top 10 in EPA/play allowed on defense, while the Patriots rank 26th. The Titans also rank first in rushing stuff rate.

Mason Rudolph has given the Titans chances when he's played this season. He and Calvin Ridley were clicking against the Lions to open the game last week.

But we can't overlook the hot new trend sweeping the betting streets. Some are calling it the Lions hangover, while others are calling it the Honolulu Flu. Essentially, after teams play the Lions, they don't fair well the next week.

In 2024, teams are 0-6 straight up and ATS after playing Detroit (including Dallas off a bye week).

I was originally on the under in this game at 38.5 but with news of Maye playing, I'm flipping toward the over and take the Patriots as road underdogs at +3.5.

Keep in mind that the Titans could be without their top two starting RBs, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, slapping Julius Chestnut to get the start. This is not a ringing endorsement for the offense.

Stay tuned.

Props:

Rhamondre Stevenson. It’s been a roller coaster ride for Stevenson this season, as he is taking on the “Amari Cooper of RBs” mantra. Seven games played this season. Four top-10 finishes (including three inside the top-5). Then three outside the top 40 overall. Woof. One RB the Titans have faced this season has rushed for at least 65 yards (Jahmyr Gibbs last week). Gibbs is also the only RB to rush for at least 45 yards and score a TD against Tennessee this season.

In Stevenson's last 15 games as an underdog, he is 11-4 toward the UNDER on his rushing prop (73%).

My Picks:

Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sides:

  • Joe Burrow is 17-5 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
  • The Bengals are 14-6 ATS on the road.
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with losing records.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games against AFC North opponents.
  • The Bengals have won 13 of their last 20 home games.
  • The Bengals are 9-7-1 ATS as home favorites and 12-7 straight up at home.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in their last four home games.
  • In five of the Bengals’ last six games, the first score has been a Bengals Touchdown.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
  • The Raiders are 12-5-1 ATS over their last 18 games.
  • LV is 13-6-1 ATS at home (67%). They are 5-3-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-6 straight up.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last seven road games.
  • The Raiders have lost nine of their last 11 road games.

Totals:

  • Five of the Bengals’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Bengals’ last 11 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 10 of the Bengals’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line
  • Six of the Bengals’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Raiders’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line, and they are 14-10 toward the under.
  • Five of the Raiders’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Five of the Raiders' last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Although the betting trends aren't super convincing for the Bengals as touchdown home favorites (9-7-1 ATS), this team knows they are running out of time.

And what's more convincing, in my estimation, is that the Bengals under Joe Burrow typically rebound. 2-1 ATS coming off losses. Burrow is 17-5 against the spread following a loss.

The Raiders have been solid ATS as road underdogs (62% ATS, 8-5), but I still feel this team is very overmatched against the Bengals.

Even though they have stayed within striking distance against the Rams/Chiefs the last two weeks, I think this is where they will be fully exposed. Those two offenses don't have the same firepower as the Bengals’.

And Cincy's defense has improved in the last month or so against subpar QBs like Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones. I'd fully bucket Gardner Minshew into that tier of QB. Spoiler: when the Bengals have played "bad" quarterbacks this season, 3-1 toward the under (Andy Dalton is the one exception).

Eventually, the Bengals will have to win a game at home, and this seems like the right spot to do so.

As for the total, I am leaning toward the under at 45.5 points. Raiders road games lean toward the under-five of the last eight have gone under-and the Bengals’ offense isn't the same without Tee Higgins, who missed last week with an injury. In two of the three games without Higgins, the Bengals have scored fewer than 20 points.

Starting tackle Orlando Brown Jr. is also dealing with an injury for the Bengals.

When I projected this game out, it came closer to 44.5 points, providing some value toward the under.

Props

The Raiders are the only team with multiple running backs with fewer than -30 rushing yards over expected this season, with Alexander Mattison (-34) and Zamir White (-39) leading the way. The Bengals’ defense has allowed +119 RYOE to running backs this season, the 7th-most in the NFL.

According to Next Gen Stats, Brock Bowers leads the NFL in receptions and has the most receptions by a tight end through eight games all-time (52).

Bowers would be the youngest player in NFL history to lead the NFL in receptions.

The last six tight ends the Bengals have faced this season have gone OVER their reception prop.

Jakobi Meyers has at least 4.5 catches in four straight games this season and in every game since the Raiders moved on from Davante Adams.  The Bengals have been the worst defense against No. 2 WRs this season.

My Picks

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

Sides:

  • The Ravens have covered the spread in four of their last six games.
  • Baltimore is 13-6 on the money line as home favorites but just 8-12 ATS as home favorites.
  • Baltimore is 14-5 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 10-4 ATS as a road favorite in their last 14 applicable appearances.
  • Rookie QBs are a combined 18-11 ATS this season.
  • The Broncos are 6-6 ATS on the road from 2023 (4-2 ATS last six road games).
  • They are 8-6-1 as road underdogs (57%).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last six games.

Totals:

  • Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (eight of their last 11), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are 7-1 toward the over this season.
  • Seven of the Ravens' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The lowest total game they’ve played in this season has been 45 points.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in 10 of the last 13 games (10 of the previous 15).
  • Each of the Ravens’ last five road games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Broncos rank third in red zone defense.
  • Each of the Broncos' last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Broncos' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Broncos' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Broncos’ last six road games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Denver is 3-1 O/U at home this season. They are averaging 36.7 points per game.

Overall

Bo Nix continues to improve every week in Sean Payton's offense. And he remains flawless against the number on the road, boasting a perfect 4-0 record ATS (3-1 straight up) despite being a six-point underdog or more in all contests.  All year, the Broncos haven't lost a game by more than seven points. The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last six games.

This team shows no quit. Give them to me all day against a Ravens team that consistently has played down to their competition especially at home.

Baltimore's defense continues to struggle, and Denver should be able to do more than enough to keep this game within single-digit territory.

The Broncos still have the No. 1-ranked defense in terms of EPA/play allowed. Baltimore has the eighth-worst defense in that category.

Lamar Jackson has also been missing practices this week with back and knee injuries, although he isn't expected to miss the game. But hey, it doesn't hurt the Broncos’ chances that the starting quarterback they are facing may not be 100 percent.

Props:

Troy Franklin contributed 5.41% of targets and collected 38 air yards (9.87%) in Week 8. He was third in routes and came short of another deep score from Nix. He's a rookie. Practice patience. He will benefit from the upcoming matchups (like the Ravens). He had gone over 30 receiving yards in two straight games before last week.

My Picks:

Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals

Sides:

  • Chicago is 6-3-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
  • The Bears have won each of their last eight home games.
  • The Bears have lost eight of their last nine road games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 10 of the Bears' last 12 games.
  • The Bears are 9-5-1 ATS and 9-6 straight up in their last 15 games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in each of the Bears’ last seven games.
  • The Bears are 5-10-1 ATS as road underdogs (33%). 5-11-1 ATS on the road (31%).
  • Chicago is 4-0 at home/neutral fields and 0-3 on the road.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in three of their last four games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last 11 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals had lost each of their last 12 games following a win before last week.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona didn't have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with their last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13, 2021. A new streak has begun.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Bears' last eight games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bears' last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Bears' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 8-4-1 toward the under in their last 13 games.
  • Eleven of the Bears' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • This season, they are 2-2 toward the over in their three road/London games.
  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine on the road since the start of 2023 (4-7-1).
  • Nine of the Cardinals’ last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line (2-2 O/U) this season, averaging 43 points per game.
  • Nine of the Cardinals’ last 11 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

What do we know about the Bears? Well, it's a team that you don't want to play or bet on when they go on the road. Or when they are underdogs.

All the trends are well below 50%, with the most glaring being the Bears as road underdogs. 5-10-1 ATS (33%). On the money line, as road underdogs? 2-14 (13%).

Looking for an upset special? Da Bears likely are not in Week 9.

Again, we bet them as favorites at home.

Their defense is solid, but they can be exposed against the run. They are second in EPA/pass play allowed but 14th in EPA/rush allowed. The Cardinals’ strength is their ground game. Arizona is 4-1 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season.

James Conner has forced 54 missed tackles this season, the most in the NFL.

Conner has run to the strong side of the formation at the 6th-highest rate in the league (55.0%, min. 75 carries) and has the 2nd-most missed tackles forced on such rushes in 2024 (22). The Bears have recorded a 10.9% missed tackle rate this season (3rd-lowest), resulting in just 279 yards allowed after missed tackles (3rd-fewest) per Next Gen Stats.

Although the Cardinals have their own issues against the run - seventh-worst EPA/rush attempt.

According to Next Gen Stats, D'Andre Swift has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 30.6% of his rushes since Week 4, the 5th-lowest rate among running backs (min. 30 carries). The Cardinals have contacted opposing rushers behind the line of scrimmage on just 33.6% of carries this season, the 5th-lowest in the NFL.

Swift has rushed for at least 68.5 yards in four straight games.

Still, I feel pretty good about Arizona winning this matchup at home in the dome.

But I feel this is a closer contest, as the small spread suggests. Kyler Murray's scrambling ability can be a backbreaker for opposing defenses and I think Arizona can run the ball on the Bears to success. They are best at running outside the tackles and against light boxes.

The Bears rank 25th in yards per carry to RBs on outside tackles rushes (5.6) and 26th in rushing yards allowed to light boxes (74.6).

I'd expect a heavy dosage of running with some deep shots to rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. mixed in, as the Bears’ pass defense has been weakest against deep passes.

It's the reverse for Caleb Williams, who should bounce back after struggling last week. Arizona is awful against short passing, which is where the Bears rookie quarterback has been at his best this season. It's when Williams holds onto the ball for too long that problems start to arise.

The Cardinals' defense has generated pressure on just 26.6% of dropbacks this season, the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.

After careful consideration, I think the over might be interesting take on this game but it's razor close to my projection at 44 points that I don't think I will play it. Two teams led by rushing attacks and short passing games doesn't scream shootout even in Arizona. The Bears' No. 1 red-zone defense also concerns me about the over this game.

Props:

According to Next Gen Stats, Trey McBride leads the NFL in targets (31), receptions (24), and receiving yards (295) from tight alignment this season.

McBride has aligned tight on 62.5% of his snaps in 2024 (31.7% slot, 4.7% wide). McBride has also been effective against zone coverage, recording the 2nd-most targets (45), receptions (37), and receiving yards (377) among tight ends this season. The Bears have used zone coverage on 79.0% of dropbacks in 2024, the 4th-highest rate in the league.

Rome Odunze has at least 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games played. The Cardinals’ defense ranks 31st in DVOA against No. 3 WRs, allowing nearly 51 yards per game to opposing third options.

Odunze was the top target for the Bears in Week 8, catching three of his six targets for 41 yards, averaging 13.7 yards per reception. Odunze took on a significant role with a 29% target share and 126 air yards (45%). The overall production wasn't great, but the usage for the rookie post-bye week is excellent. Buy the rookie as the ascending WR talent on the Bears.

According to Next Gen Stats, Jaylon Johnson has forced the lowest passer rating (38.0) and lowest completion percentage over expected (-17.4%) when targeted this season (min. 25 targets).

Johnson has aligned as the Bears field corner on 83.0% of his snaps in 2024 (Tyrique Stephenson 81% boundary).

The Bears are tied with the Broncos with the fewest targets allowed to opposing No. 1 WRs this season.

My Picks:

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Eagles are 4-11-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • But at home in their last 21 games - 12-9 ATS as home favorites (57%).
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last eight road games.
  • Philadelphia ATS on the road: 6-12-1.
  • The Eagles have won 13 of their last 15 games against AFC opponents.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of the Eagles’ last 12 games.
  • The Jaguars have lost 11 of their last 14 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 14 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season. They are just 2-9 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • ATS they are 5-3 as a home underdog and on the money line (71%).
  • Jacksonville went 2-0 straight up and ATS in London last season. 1-1 this season.
  • The favorites are 6-2 straight up and ATS internationally since last season.
  • The only “upset” last season was the Jaguars defeating the Bills after Jacksonville had already spent a week in London playing back-to-back games. After the Jaguars opened up as underdogs last week, they lost as favorites. They beat the Patriots as favorites.

Totals:

  • The Eagles are 12-13 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 5-10 toward the over on the road.
  • Seven of the Eagles’ last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 7-3 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023. They are 0-2 toward the over at home this season (39.5 points per game).
  • Each of the Jaguars’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Jaguars' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Jags’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in eight of their last 16 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.

Overall:

A lot of what comes down to the Eagles' covering the spread is more about their defense than offense. If they hold teams under 20 points, they are 69% ATS in their last sixteen games. The Jaguars have a 19-point implied team total and are dealing with a flurry of injuries to their WRs.

Meanwhile, the Eagles might be starting to build some momentum. They have won three straight games since the bye week and rank first in the fewest points allowed on defense over that span.

Sure, against Deshaun Watson/Daniel Jones, it wasn't impressive. But against Joe Burrow? Now you have my attention.

Jalen Hurts has been taking much better care of the football, and it is playing so much better with A.J. Brown back in the starting lineup. Turnovers figure to play a big part in this matchup.

According to Next Gen Stats, since 2022 the Eagles are 15-0 with a positive turnover differential (most wins without a loss by any team in that span), and 15-11 in games with a negative or even turnover differential.

The Jaguars have 4 takeaways this season (tied for 2nd-fewest in NFL), and a -5 turnover differential (5th-worst in NFL).

No doubt that the Eagles win this game, but I think it could get ugly against an undermanned Jaguars team. Nick Sirianni probably wants to prove a point going up against former Eagles head coach, Doug Pederson.

Props:

Against deep passes this season, the Jaguars rank fifth in attempts, first in yards, second in yards per attempt, third in EPA/pass attempt, and first in separation.

According to Next Gen Stats, A.J. Brown has generated +176 receiving yards over expected this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Brown has hauled in 4 of 7 targets for 170 yards on Go routes this year, resulting in three touchdowns and generating a +15.3 Total EPA (Highest in NFL). Since 2022, Jalen Hurts has been efficient when targeting Brown on Go routes in tight windows, completing 17 of 31 pass attempts for 583 yards and eight touchdowns (five more TDs than the next QB-WR duo).

There's not an Eagles WR receiving yards prop over that I don't love this week.

My Picks:

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Sides

  • The Lions are 19-8 ATS as favorites. They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 15-6 ATS over their last 20 games. When in doubt? Lions ATS.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Lions have won their last 12 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have won 10 of their last 12 home games.
  • Green Bay is 12-7 at home in its last 19 home games, 10-9 ATS
  • They are 40% ATS over the last 17 home games (6-9-1)
  • GB as a favorite: 8-16-1 ATS
  • But as a home underdog, Green Bay is 4-1 straight up (80%) and ATS.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 13-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 11-4 ATS. Green Bay was 4-8 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • Green Bay is 2-7 as road favorites ATS (sub-25%) and 10-10 on the money line.

Totals

  • Thirteen of the Lions’ last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The average total in the Lions’ last 23 home games has been 54.5 points; 74 percent (17/23) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Seven of the Lions’ last 10 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 18-9 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Eleven of the Packers’ last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers’ first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, and 13 in Week 8.
  • Eight of the Packers’ last 12 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Lions’ last seven games against NFC North opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The spread and recent line movement suggest that Jordan Love will play for the Packers in Week 9 after he logged a limited practice on Thursday.

We don't often see the Packers as home underdogs, but this is where they have hit their peak. They are 4-1 straight up and ATS. And I just can't look past this being the Lions’ first game outdoors this season. And what is the forecast calling for? Definite rain showers.

As great as the Lions are to back against the spread blindly, I don't think this is the week to do so.

Back the Pack at home in this NFC North divisional showdown.

As for the specific matchup, here's what I am looking at between these two teams.

Defensively, I don't anticipate the Packers blitzing Jared Goff. The Packers’ defense has blitzed at the third-lowest rate (18.5%) but has generated pressure on 51.8% of their blitzes this season, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (Next Gen Stats). The Packers have managed to generate pressure on just 27.5% of the time when sending four-or-fewer pass rushers. Their +24.3% pressure rate when blitzing compared to when not blitzing is the second-largest increase in the NFL behind the Bills (+25.0%).

Jared Goff has averaged a league-high 12.2 yards per attempt against the blitz this season. Goff also completed every one of his seven passes against the blitz for 56 yards and three touchdowns in Week 8 against the Titans.

Meanwhile, the Lions have become a blitz-happy team since they lost Aidan Hutchinson.

Jordan Love has the third-worst passer rating against the blitz this season. Love has completed the 5th-lowest percentage of his passes (54.2%) and averaged the 3rd-fewest yards per attempt (4.9) against the blitz this season. The Packers QB also hasn't been great against man coverage. Love has averaged 4.3 yards per attempt when facing man coverage, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL behind Will Levis (4.3). Love has generated -23.8 pass EPA vs man coverage, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL behind Aaron Rodgers (-29.9). The Lions’ defense has played man coverage on a league-high 46.4% of opposing dropbacks this season.

I called out Love's poor man splits last week. Before he left the game, he threw zero TDs and an interception.

Jared Goff has faced zone on a league-high 81.0% of his dropbacks this season. More specifically, Goff has faced Cover 3 on 45.0% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL.

Goff has thrown every one of his four total interceptions against zone coverage and three of his four interceptions against Cover 3 this season. Despite the mistake, Goff has averaged the 5th-most yards per attempt (8.7) and generated a 49.1% success rate when facing zone coverage this season, the 14th-highest rate in the NFL and slightly above the NFL average (46.7%). The Packers’ defense has allowed a 52.9% success rate when playing zone coverage this season, the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.

According to Next Gen Stats, Jared Goff has targeted Amon-Ra St. Brown 46 times against zone coverage, 21 more times than he's targeted any other Lions receiver (36/46, 399 yards, 3 TD, INT).

Goff has completed 14 of 16 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown when targeting Sam LaPorta against zone coverage this season. Goff has averaged 14.1 yards per attempt when targeting LaPorta against zone coverage, the 4th-most of any QB-receiver duo and the most of any QB-tight end duo in the NFL this season (min. 15 targets).

Despite an inconsistent role, LaPorta has gone over 41.5 receiving yards in 4/7 games this season, including three of his last four. He has also gone over 40.5 receiving yards in four of his last five appearances with Jameson Williams out of the lineup. He went over 40 yards in both games against the Packers last season.

The Packers' defense has shown out in three of their last four straight games (paired with three unders). They are also 3-1 toward the under at home, with three games finishing under 48 points.

After initially leaning toward backing the Pack, I think the best play is just taking the under on the game total at 49 points. Fade Goff outdoors and Love off an injury against a heavy man/blitzing defense.

Props

According to Next Gen Stats, Jayden Reed has gained a league-high 366 receiving yards when aligned in the slot this season, including +106 receiving yards over expected, the 2nd-most in the NFL (Khalil Shakir, +112).

Reed has caught six of eight targets on vertical routes run from the slot for 234 of his 366 total receiving yards and two touchdowns, the most such yards in the NFL. The Lions’ defense has allowed the 3rd-most yards (286) on 21 slot vertical route targets faced this season, tied for the 2nd-most such targets faced in the NFL.

In a limited sample, Jared Goff has averaged 4.3 air yards per attempt with Jameson Williams off the field (32 passes) but 7.6 air yards per attempt with Williams on the field this season (157 passes).

Goff has targeted Williams on 7 of his 15 total deep passes this season, resulting in three of his seven completions, 139 of his 263 yards, and two of his three touchdowns on such attempts.

Christian Watson has been targeted on a career-low 17.2% of his routes run this season. Watson has run a deep route (20+ yards downfield) on a career-low 26.7% of his total routes.

Watson has also been targeted on a career-low 16.1% of his deep routes this season. Watson has caught 2 of 5 deep targets for 74 yards and a touchdown.

Watson has been heavily involved against man coverage this season.

Last week against the Jaguars, Watson added four catches for 39 yards, showing consistency. He tied for the team lead with six targets. Watson ran a route on 76% of dropbacks, out-pacing Dontayvion Wicks (28%). Watson received a red zone target without a catch or score. Watson garnered a 22.22% target share and collected 66 air yards (23.74%).

As pointed out last week, Watson leads GB in yards per route run against man coverage.

Per Next Gen States, the Lions have aligned their outside cornerbacks in press coverage on 35.8% of their snaps this season, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Romeo Doubs has caught every one of his five targets vs press coverage from a wide alignment for 103 yards and a touchdown this season. All other Packers receivers have caught three of nine such targets for 19 yards.

My Picks:

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 19 of the Seahawks’ last 23 games.
  • Seattle is 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games played (5-10-1 over the last 14 games).
  • Seattle is 10-3 as a favorite in the last 13 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 4-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 11 games.
  • Seattle is 4-4 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in five of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • Seattle is the road underdog ATS at 7-8 (45%). As away underdogs on the money line, they are 4-11.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home games.
  • The Seahawks have lost four of their last five games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in seven of the Seahawks' last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against the Seahawks.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Rams 2023 starters are 3-10 as underdogs straight up. 2-4 as underdogs this season (3-3 ATS) after their massive win against the 49ers and win last week against the Vikings.
  • The favorites have won 16 of the Rams' last 18 games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in seven of the Rams’ last eight games against NFC West opponents.
  • The Rams have lost the first half in each of their last five road games.

Totals:

  • Five of the Seahawks’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Seahawks’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks’ last 10 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Rams’ last five games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Rams' last 13 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 11-9 toward the O/U in their last 20 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only six times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7.

Overall:

The lines opened up with the Seahawks as slight home favorites, but the odds quickly shifted to the Rams as favorites. This is largely because the Seahawks have been vastly overrated (especially at home), and the Rams have had the edge over Seattle for a long time. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Rams have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against the Seahawks.

The Ram swept Seattle last season, going 1-1 ATS.

I jumped on the Rams early in the week, so I am sitting on a +1.5 ticket that I'll likely just ride with.

I’m not sure if I am as bullish on them outright, given Puka Nacua’s recent aggravated knee injury on Thursday. If he plays, I'd presume he is fine based on what happened last week. I would go right back to the Rams as slight road favorites-a spot where they are 3-1 ATS over the last four applicable games.

The Seahawks are reeling as losers of four of their last five games. They don't play well as underdogs, so you aren't getting any "value" on them as an underdog from a betting perspective.

Simply put, the Rams win when they are favorites, and the Seahawks lose as underdogs. It doesn't help Seattle that DK Metcalf looks like a longshot to play after logging back-to-back DNPs. Tight end Noah Fant is also banged up.

From a specific matchup point of view, we just have to acknowledge how much better the Rams are offensively when they are healthy. Last week's performance against the Vikings was no fluke, and I wasn't considering the returns of the Rams WRs enough in my Thursday Night Football handicap.

And the Seahawks defensively are frauds. They looked great from Weeks 1-3 against a cupcake schedule.

Since Week 4, they have allowed the most yards per play (6.5) in the NFL.

Expect a healthy Rams offense to face little resistance. According to Next Gen Stats, the Rams offense uses motion at the highest rate in the NFL, with 84.1% of their snaps including motion. On passing plays, the Rams have the highest drop-off in success rate when not using motion, going from 51.9% when using motion to 37.8% without.

The Seahawks defense has allowed the 5th-highest completion percentage (70.2%) and success rate (48.6%) on passing plays with motion.

However, despite the Rams projected success, I still lean toward the game total under at 48.5 points. We have top injured WRs on both teams. And three of the last four matchups between the Rams-Seahawks have gone UNDER the projected total.

Props:

Since returning from injury in Week 4, Kenneth Walker has become a pass-catching machine. He has hit the over in all his receiving props in five straight, going over 30 yards in four of the games.

Every RB that is used in the passing game they have faced this season has gone over their prop with all but one going for at least 30 receiving yards.

Kyren Williams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last 10 regular season appearances. Per Next Gen Stats, it's the longest active streak in the NFL and the 4th-longest such streak over the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks have allowed seven rushing TDs since Week 4 (tied for 2nd-most in the NFL during that span).

Cooper Kupp has scored a touchdown in six of his last eight regular-season appearances.

My Picks:

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