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NFL Week 9 Composite Power Ratings (2023)

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Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.

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    Week 9 NFL Composite Power Ratings

    • The loss of Kirk Cousins is a big blow to not just the Minnesota Vikings, but also to the NFL landscape as a whole (especially with the state of quarterback play as it currently stands). You’ll notice above that the Vikings’ rating has dropped significantly from last week, despite coming off of a win (their fourth in the last five). While there’s an obvious downgrade in play from Cousins to the combination of Jaren Hall and Joshua Dobbs, the sources above seem to be split on how big of a difference it makes.
    • The New Orleans Saints are one of this week’s biggest risers coming off of a thrilling win against the Indianapolis Colts. Over the last four weeks, the Saints’ EPA per drive (both offensively and defensively) have matched that of some of the top teams. While they’re only 2-2 in that stretch, New Orleans has a great shot to win the NFC South as they’re currently tied with the Atlanta Falcons and still have two matchups against them the rest of the season.

    Week 9 Matchups

    • There is a massive ratings and spread discrepancy in this week’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills. Cincinnati is currently a 2-point favorite, but the ratings suggest that the Bills should be favored by almost 3.5 points. My best guess as to why this varies so much is based on recent results. The Bengals are winners of three straight while the Bills are 2-2 in their last four with their two wins being one-score wins in which they looked less-than-inspiring on both sides of the ball. This should be a phenomenal matchup, but this could indicate that the Bills are slightly undervalued in this spot.
    • The most shocking spread difference for me is one in which there isn’t a difference. The Seattle Seahawks will travel east to play the Baltimore Ravens, who are currently 6-point favorites. You can point to both Seattle and Baltimore as having played a less-than-stellar bevy of opponents so far — according to several of the sources listed above, these teams have both played schedules that would be in the top-6 easiest slate of opponents so far. So, for Baltimore to be favored by nearly a touchdown seems a bit egregious to me. Baltimore’s best win (a blowout win over the Detroit Lions) is slightly more impressive than Seattle’s best win (an overtime win against those same Lions), but I make this closer to a 4.5-point spread.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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