Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 9 Early Bets and Trends
For the past few NFL seasons, each Sunday night I've written an early bets piece highlighting some applicable trends I've noticed for the upcoming week.
I'm not a trends bettor, but I find that historical situational data helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
So here are some trends for Week 9 as well as a few early bets I like based on the current lines in the market and my early personal projections, which I will update throughout the week along with our premium BettingPros spread projections.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Note: These aren't all the trends I'm seeing and all the early bets I like. These are just a few of them. For more of my early Week 9 bets, check out the BettingPros App.
All lines and odds are from the BettingPros NFL odds page and as of Oct. 30. All the historical trends information is from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Check out our Bills at Jets matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium
- TV: CBS
Bills at Jets: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Bills -12
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Moneyline: Bills -590, Jets +420
Buffalo Bills Trends
- QB Josh Allen: 20-10-2 ATS (26.2% ROI) on road
- HC Sean McDermott: 26-16-2 ATS (18.2% ROI) on road
Bills at Jets: Early Bet
- Best Line: Bills -11.5 (-110, Caesars)
- Early Projection: Bills -12.5
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of -10.5.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Check out our Seahawks at Cardinals matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium
- TV: FOX
Seahawks at Cardinals: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Cardinals -3.5
- Over/Under: 49
- Moneyline: Cardinals -190, Seahawks +158
Arizona Cardinals Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 11-17 ATS (16.8% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 9-15 ATS (20.5% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 11-5 ATS (31.9% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Seahawks at Cardinals: Early Bet
- Best Line: Seahawks +3 (-110, DraftKings)
- Early Projection: Seahawks +2.5
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of +3.5.
If you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
Check out our Ravens at Saints matchup page.
- Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 7, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome
- TV: ESPN
Ravens at Saints: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Ravens -3
- Over/Under: 49
- Moneyline: Ravens -175, Saints +150
New Orleans Saints Trends
- QB Andy Dalton: 42-31-2 ATS (13.1% ROI) as underdog
- 2022 Saints: 3-2 ATS (14.9% ROI) with QB Andy Dalton
- 2022 Saints: 0-3 ATS (-100% ROI) with QB Jameis Winston
Ravens at Saints: Early Bet
- Best Line: Saints +3.5 (-110, Caesars)
- Early Projection: Saints +0.5
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of +3.5.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
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