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NFL Week 9 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

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Here is an early look at NFL Week 9 odds and trends:

NFL Week 9 Early Odds & Trends

Titans @ Steelers – Thursday, Nov. 2 – 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – PIT -3.0; O/U 36.0

Titans trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 6-3-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games: 15-5 to the Under
  • Previous 21 games following a win: 12-9 ATS
  • Mike Vrabel as an underdog (Career): 27-17-1 ATS

Steelers trends:

  • Previous 17 games following a loss: 10-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 20 home games: 13-6-1 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 14-5-1 to the Under
  • Mike Tomlin as a favorite (Career): 82-94-2 ATS

Best bet: Titans +3.0

Will Levis looked awesome in his first-career start on Sunday, making a case that he should have been the Titans’ starting QB since Week 1. I’ll take the Titans getting a field goal on the road in a classic underdog spot for Mike Vrabel against Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, who have historically underperformed as favorites.

Dolphins @ Chiefs – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 9:30 a.m. EST (Allianz Arena – Munich, GER)

Current Consensus Lines – KC -2.5; O/U 50.5

Dolphins trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 8-2 ATS
  • Previous 22 games following a win: 14-8 ATS
  • Previous 30 conference games: 19-10-1 ATS
  • Tua Tagovailoa (Career): 26-16 ATS

Chiefs trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 34 conference games: 13-21 ATS

Best bet: Dolphins +2.5

Miami’s offense got back on track after a tough loss to the Eagles the week prior, and I like them to keep it rolling against a Chiefs team that was just exposed by the Broncos, especially catching nearly a field goal.

Vikings @ Falcons – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – ATL -4.5; O/U 37.5

Vikings trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 8-2 to the Under
  • Previous 10 road games: 6-2-2 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 2-7-1 ATS
  • Previous 23 games following a win: 9-13-1 ATS

Falcons trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 6-14 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 20 home games: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 28 non-divisional games: 9-18-1 ATS

Best bet: MIN +4.5

The Falcons were shredded by Levis making his debut on Sunday. I’ll take the Vikings getting the points no matter who they roll out to play QB.

Rams @ Packers – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – GB -3.0; O/U 39.5

Rams trends:

  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 6-3-1 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 to the Under
  • Previous 20 road games: 8-10-2 ATS; 11-7-1 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games following a loss: 10-7-3 ATS

Packers trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 12-8 ATS
  • Previous 30 conference games: 18-12 ATS

Best bet: Packers -3.0

This has to be nearing the bottom of the barrel for the Packers, who are short home favorites against a Rams team that will likely be starting a backup QB. I’ll take them to finally get right in this bounce-back spot.

Commanders @ Patriots – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – NE -3.0; O/U 40.0

Commanders trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 12 non-conference games: 5-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 10-8-2 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 11-6-3 ATS
  • Previous 22 games following a loss: 9-11-2 ATS

Patriots trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 2-8 ATS
  • Previous 10 home games: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 6-3-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
  • Mac Jones (Career): 17-24 ATS

Best bet: Commanders +3.0

Should Mac Jones and the Patriots really be favored by 3.0 points against anybody? I’ll take the Commanders catching a field goal against a struggling Patriots team.

Buccaneers @ Texans – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – HOU -2.5; O/U 40.0

Buccaneers trends:

  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 11 non-conference games: 4-7 ATS
  • Previous 16 games following a loss: 4-11-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 6-13-1 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 20 road games: 8-12 ATS; 14-6 to the Under

Texans trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 13 non-conference games: 5-7-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 5-13-2 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 6-14 ATS; 12-8 to the Under

Best bet: Buccaneers +2.5

We’re finally starting to see some warts and rookie mistakes from C.J. Stroud, as the Texans just gifted the Panthers their first win of the season. The Buccaneers are the more talented team, and I’ll take them to cover this short road spread.

Cardinals @ Browns – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – CLE -8.0; O/U 37.5

Cardinals trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 12 non-conference games: 7-5 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 12-7-1 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games as a road underdog: 19-9-2 ATS; 16-13-1 to the Under

Browns trends:

  • Previous 12 non-conference games: 7-4-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 12-6-2 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS
  • Kevin Stefanski as a favorite (Career): 11-21 ATS

Best bet: Cardinals +8.0

The Cardinals have been more competitive than most pegged them to be this season, and I think this number is too large, especially with a total this low. I’ll back the Cardinals catching over a touchdown in a game that I think will be closer than anticipated.

Bears @ Saints – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – NO -7.5; O/U 41.0

Bears trends:

  • Previous 20 games:5-14-1 ATS; 14-6 to the Over
  • Previous 20 road games: 6-14 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 6-13-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
  • Previous 28 games following a loss: 10-16-2 ATS
  • Previous 28 non-divisional games: 11-15-2 ATS

Saints trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 2-7-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 18 games following a win: 5-12-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 15-5 to the Under
  • Previous 20 home games: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 28 non-divisional games: 13-15 ATS

Best bet: Under 41.0

The Saints have been under machines the past few seasons. Even though they may be able to score on the Bears’ defense, I don’t trust Chicago to be able to put up many points with their current QB situation.

Seahawks @ Ravens – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – BAL -5.5; O/U 43.0

Seahawks trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 12 non-conference games: 7-4-1 ATS
  • Previous 19 games following a win: 7-11-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-7-1 to the Under
  • Pete Carroll as an underdog (Career): 48-32-3 ATS

Ravens trends:

  • Previous 10 home games: 3-6-1 ATS; 9-1 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 8-12 ATS; 15-5 to the Under
  • Previous 23 games following a win: 8-14-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 43.0

I find this total a tick too high in a game where both teams have trended heavily to the under in similar spots.

Colts @ Panthers – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – IND -2.5; O/U 44.0

Colts trends:

  • Previous 12 non-conference games: 5-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS; 13-7 to the Under

Panthers trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-6-1 ATS
  • Previous 12 non-conference games: 5-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 13-7 to the Under

Best bet: Under 44.0

Most of the Colts’ high-scoring affairs have come at home, while Panthers home games have heavily trended to the under in recent years. I’ll take the under on one of the highest totals on the board this Sunday.

Giants @ Raiders – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – LV -3.0; O/U 38.5

Giants trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games: 13-6-1 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-7-1 ATS; 15-4-1 to the Under
  • Previous 24 games following a loss: 14-10 ATS
  • Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 12-6-1 ATS

Raiders trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 11 games with rest disadvantage: 8-3 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS

Best bet: Raiders -3.0

While Brian Daboll and the Giants have been profitable as underdogs since his hire, their QB situation has too many questions to blindly back them as an underdog. I’ll lay the points with the Raiders at home.

Cowboys @ Eagles – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – PHI -3.0; O/U 46.0

Cowboys trends:

  • Previous 13 divisional games: 10-3 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 20 road games: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 ATS

Eagles trends:

  • Previous 10 games against the Cowboys: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 15 divisional games: 5-8-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 20 home games: 10-8-2 ATS; 14-6 to the Over

Best bet: Eagles -3.0

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have tended to stomp on lesser competition and then proceed to get outclassed stepping up in competition in recent years. I have no reason to think that this matchup will be any different. I’ll lay the points with Philly in this big NFC East matchup on Sunday.

Bills @ Bengals – Sunday, Nov. 5 – 8:20 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – CIN -3.0; O/U 48.5

Bills trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 8-2 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-2-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-6-1 ATS
  • Sean McDermott as an underdog (Career): 21-16-2

Bengals trends:

  • Previous 6 games with rest disadvantage: 4-2 ATS
  • Previous 10 home games: 6-3-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 14-5-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-7-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 games following a win: 20-10 ATS
  • Previous 32 conference games: 20-12 ATS

Best bet: Begnals -3.0

Something isn’t quite right with Buffalo this year, and the Bengals are once again finding their stride after a sluggish start to the season. I’ll lay the points with the Bengals in a hype home primetime spot.

Chargers @ Jets – Monday, Nov. 6 – 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – LAC-3.0; O/U 41.5

Chargers trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 5-3-2 to the Under
  • Previous 10 road games: 6-3-1 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 6-3-1 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games: 11-8-1 ATS; 12-6-2 to the Under

Jets trends:

  • Previous 10 home games: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 14 games following a win: 5-8-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 to the Under

Best bet: Under 41.5

The Jets have been one of the most profitable under teams in recent years, and the Chargers have actually also trended under despite their perception. I’ll take the under in a game where I expect the Jets’ defense to continue to shine without getting much contribution on the offensive side of the ball.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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