NFL Week 9 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 9!
Compare first touchdown stats to prop bet odds to help identify the best bets of the week >>
NFL Week 9 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: +1400 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes is targeting his rookie receiver second most on the team, and Rice is making the most of them. He averages 12 yards per reception and is second on the team in yards after catch. Rice averages 4.9 targets per game and has found the end zone three times this season. The Dolphins allow 221.5 passing yards per game and 25.5 points per game. The Chiefs only allow 16.1 points per game, so a receiver for the Chiefs is the best option. Rice is targeted the most and will have a favorable matchup.
Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons
Odds: +1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Mattison ceded a touchdown to Cam Akers as the first touchdown last week, but Mattison played more. Mattison played 61% of the snaps, and Akers only played 24%. The Vikings are starting rookie Jaren Hall at quarterback, and they could lean on their ground game a little more in this game. The Falcons are also making a change under center as they opt to start Taylor Heinicke. It is hard to project how these offenses will look with new quarterbacks, and Mattison offers value. He will be in the game more often than not and is getting plenty of opportunities.
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens
Odds: +1100 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Flowers trails Mark Andrews by one target in the red zone but leads the team by 16. He is Lamar Jackson's go-to receiver and is a playmaker. He leads the team with 197 yards after catch and 57.6 receiving yards per game. The Seahawks allow 234.3 passing yards per game and have given up eight TDs through the air this season. He will face a lot of zone coverage this week, and his usage increases against zone coverage. Flowers is a player to take a shot on in this matchup.
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints
Odds: +950 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Olave has had a disappointing season but is still drawing a lot of targets. He has had double-digit targets in five of eight games this season. Olave leads the team in targets and averages 9.6 per game. He will face the Bears this week. There are only a handful of teams worse at defending the pass than the Bears, which could be a chance for Olave to have a monster game. The Bears have given up 17 passing TDs this season and offer Olave an opportunity to gain momentum entering the second half of the year.
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns
Odds: +650 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Jerome Ford and Hunt are +650 to score first on DraftKings, but Hunt offers more value. He has seen nine rushing attempts in the red zone to Ford's one. Pierre Strong Jr. has had more opportunities (five) than Ford. Since they are the same price, Hunt is stronger. The Cardinals give up 130.6 rushing yards per game, and the Browns run for the second-most yards per game. They have also given up 11 rushing TDs this season, which sets up a good chance of one of these backs finding the end zone first. Hunt is the better play simply due to the goal-line opportunities.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans
Odds: +2500 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Both teams give up 18.3 points per game and are weak against the pass. They have similar stats against the run and pass, so it might be worth taking a chance on a trend. The Buccaneers have given up four rushing TDs to quarterbacks this season, which ties for the most in the league. Stroud scored on a quarterback sneak last week and has been willing to use his legs when necessary this season. It is a chance to find value on a long shot and hope the game flows in the right direction.
Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots
Odds: +1100 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Patriots could be short a few receivers this week. Kendrick Bourne, who leads the team in targets, tore his ACL last week and will miss the remainder of the season. DeVante Parker suffered a concussion and is unlikely to clear concussion protocol, given his history with concussions. Douglas has been filling the void in recent weeks. He is averaging 6.5 targets over the past two weeks. The Commanders have given up the most passing touchdowns (18) this season and allow 7.9 yards per pass attempt. It is a favorable matchup to take the Patriots, who have been moving the ball better recently.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers
Odds: +650 via Caesars Sportsbook
The Rams could be without Matthew Stafford this week, who has not practiced due to a thumb injury on his throwing hand. Sean McVay said Stafford could play without practicing and gave him a chance to play, given his track record of gutting it out. Brett Rypien would play in place of Stafford if he sits out. Cooper Kupp should be either quarterback's favorite target in this matchup. The Packers play a lot of zone coverage, and Kupp dominates against zone coverage. He will find the soft spots and make an easy target for either quarterback.
Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers
Odds: +475 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Panthers are a smash spot for the running back position. They give up the third-most rushing yards per game (139.4) and have allowed the most rushing TDs (14) this season. Taylor played 61% of snaps last week after splitting with Zack Moss the previous two weeks. Taylor averages 4.7 yards per carry and has been explosive with his touches. He should be a great option to score first, and the odds reflect that.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: +950 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Lamb has been firing on all cylinders all season, but the TDs were not there until last week. He caught 12 of 14 targets for 158 yards and two TDs. Lamb caught all seven targets for 117 yards in the week prior. He is trending in the right direction ahead of a solid matchup. The Eagles have allowed 247.5 passing yards per game and have allowed the third most TDs (16) to wide receivers this season. Lamb is undervalued and is a solid wager.
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders
Odds: +750 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Davante Adams is averaging 9.8 targets per game this season and has had three different quarterbacks. Aidan O'Connell will be under center for them again this week. He started in week four against the Chargers and targeted Adams 13 times. The Raiders have an easier matchup this week and are favorites at home. The Giants are one of the two teams behind the Raiders in points scored per game, so the Raiders likely have the best chance to score a touchdown first. The Giants allow 7.1 yards per pass attempt and have allowed nine passing TDs this season. Adams should be involved early in this matchup.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Week 9 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz's Favorites (2023)
- NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 9)
- College Football Week 10 Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks (2023)
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts