NFL Week 9 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)
This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, best bets and predictions for Week 9.
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Week 9 Spread Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Home Spread | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Santora | MacMillan | Wolbransky | Greer |
| ATL | LAC | 3 | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL |
| DET | GB | 3.5 | DET | DET | GB | DET | GB | DET |
| CHI | MIA | 5 | CHI | CHI | MIA | CHI | CHI | MIA |
| CIN | CAR | -7.5 | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN |
| JAX | LV | 1.5 | JAX | JAX | JAX | JAX | JAX | JAX |
| NE | IND | -5.5 | NE | IND | NE | NE | NE | NE |
| NYJ | BUF | 13 | NYJ | NYJ | BUF | BUF | NYJ | NYJ |
| WAS | MIN | 3.5 | WAS | WAS | MIN | WAS | WAS | WAS |
| ARI | SEA | -2 | ARI | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA |
| TB | LAR | -3 | TB | TB | TB | TB | TB | TB |
| KC | TEN | -12.5 | TEN | TEN | KC | TEN | KC | TEN |
| NO | BAL | 2.5 | NO | NO | BAL | NO | NO | NO |
NO +2.5 vs. BAL
The Saints have managed 29.6 points over the past five games with backup-turned-starting QB Andy Dalton. How? The Saints have one of the league’s best rush attacks (top-eight in all key rush efficiency metrics), and the Ravens are outside the top 20 in run defense. They have especially struggled since losing run-stuffing NT Michael Pierce (biceps, IR), who exited Week 3 with an injury after just 11 snaps (Weeks 1-2, 36.1% rush success rate; Weeks 3-8, 46.0%). Even with the Monday addition of LB Roquan Smith (acquired from Bears via trade), the Ravens will likely still struggle against the run. In the offseason, this number was Saints +0.5, and that’s close to where I think this line should be.
– Matthew Freedman
NYJ +13 vs. BUF
While Zach Wilson is a liability at QB, the Jets as a team are quite strong. They have the 6th best defense by EPA and the 11th-best rushing attack. When Wilson avoids negative plays, this team is competitive and substantially better than the 13-point spread would imply. The Bills’ defensive line will be a problem, but I have to imagine the Jets will try to gameplan around this fact, given Wilson’s recent performances. It will be an ugly game, but I do think the Jets can keep it just close enough for a cover.
– Robby Greer
CIN -7.5 vs. CAR
Carolina might look like they’ve found an offensive resurgence with PJ Walker, but they’re still the 8th worst team in passing EPA since Week 6. D’Onta Forman scored three touchdowns through the ground last week, but a majority of his work came from the red zone–a place the Panthers have been to fewer than any other team in the NFL this year. I’m concerned about the Cincinnati offense without superstar Ja’Marr Chase, but the Bengals are at least a touchdown better than Carolina, who I think will struggle to move the ball.
– Ben Wolbransky
TB -3 vs LAR
This week’s matchup is a nightmare for a Rams offense that has failed to find any sort of offensive rhythm in 2022. They currently rank 26th in passing YPA, 31st in rushing YPA, 24th in points scored per possession, and surrender the 6th most sacks in the NFL – a recipe that is not going to succeed against a top-10 Buccaneers defense that is sacking opposing QBs at the 3rd highest rate in the league. I expect for Tom Brady and Tampa’s offense to get on track, finding success through the air against a surprisingly suspect Rams pass defense (25th in yards allowed per attempt). This is a great spot to back the Buccaneers at home against a struggling Rams team that will be traveling cross-country and playing with a hobbled Cooper Kupp.
– Austin MacMillan
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Week 9 Total Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Over/Under | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Santora | MacMillan | Wolbransky |
| ATL | LAC | 49.5 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Under |
| DET | GB | 49.5 | Under | Over | Under | Under | Under |
| CHI | MIA | 45.5 | Under | Over | Over | Under | Under |
| CIN | CAR | 42.5 | Over | Under | Over | Over | Over |
| JAX | LV | 48 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| NE | IND | 39.5 | Under | Over | Under | Under | Over |
| NYJ | BUF | 47 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Over |
| WAS | MIN | 43.5 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Under |
| ARI | SEA | 50.5 | Under | Over | Under | Over | Under |
| TB | LAR | 42.5 | Over | Under | Over | Under | Over |
| KC | TEN | 46.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| NO | BAL | 48 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over |
GB @ DET UNDER 49.5
The Green Bay Packers offense has struggled monumentally over the last month of the NFL season; they’re bottom 3 ahead of only the Steelers and the Jets in offensive EPA since week 6. What’s worse is Green Bay ranks dead last in offensive points scored per game in the same time frame (13.6 points per game). Meanwhile, the Packers’ defense has been very solid at shutting down opposing pass offenses. Detroit will find success running the ball, but not enough to put up 20+ points or enough for this total to go over.
– Ben Wolbransky
MIA @ CHI OVER 45.5
The Bears may be an interesting team to start targeting games for overs. After trading away Robert Quinn the week prior, GM Ryan Poles traded team-leading tackler Roquan Smith right before the deadline. The offense has turned a corner by utilizing Fields’ legs more often, and it resulted in an average of 31 points scored in the last two weeks. The Bears’ defense is coming off a week where they gave up 49 points to the Cowboys with Roquan Smith in the lineup. Tua and company should be able to put up some points again this week after their 31-point effort in Detroit last week.
– Dylan Santora
LAC @ ATL OVER 49.5
The Chargers are once again one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, allowing a league-worst 5.7 YPA, which spells trouble against a Falcons offense that has attempted the 3rd most rushes in the league and plans to return Cordarelle Patterson from the IR this week. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons’ secondary has surrendered the second-most yards per pass attempt (7.4), which will be a problem as the Chargers pass the ball more than any other team in the league. The Mercedes-Benz Stadium has proven to be a fast track this season, with an average of 52.25 PPG scored in Falcons home games. There should be very few stops in this game, as each team’s defense struggles to stop the strength of the opposing offense.
– Austin MacMillan
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