NFL Week 9 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 9 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| MIA | BUF | -6.5 | -6 | -0.5 | 48.5 | 49 | 0.5 |
| LV | CIN | -8.5 | -7 | -1.5 | 45 | 46.5 | 1.5 |
| DAL | ATL | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 52 | 52 | 0 |
| LAC | CLE | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 39.5 | 43 | 3.5 |
| NO | CAR | 6.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 45 | 43.5 | -1.5 |
| NE | TEN | -3 | -3 | 0 | 38.5 | 38 | -0.5 |
| DEN | BAL | -9 | -9 | 0 | 44 | 46.5 | 2.5 |
| WAS | NYG | 3.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 43.5 | 44 | 0.5 |
| CHI | AZ | -1 | -1 | 0 | 45 | 44.5 | -0.5 |
| JAX | PHI | -7 | -7.5 | 0.5 | 47.5 | 45.5 | -2 |
| LAR | SEA | -1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 48.5 | 48 | -0.5 |
| DET | GB | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1 | 48.5 | 48 | -0.5 |
| IND | MIN | -7 | -5.5 | -1.5 | 46 | 46.5 | 0.5 |
| TB | KC | -8.5 | -8.5 | 0 | 44.5 | 46 | 1.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 9 Spread Movement Analysis
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: +1.5 – -1.5
This NFC West clash is the only game on the Week 9 slate to have its spread jump the fence, and much of it has to do with the healthier Rams and their impressive Thursday night performance last week. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in the lineup, the Rams had a season-high in points (30) and yards per play (5.8), and Matthew Stafford had more touchdown passes (four) than he did in the first six games combined (three).
The line also moved as there was doubt over D.K. Metcalf’s playing status (he missed last week’s game against the Bills). But if he were declared active, he is a big enough playmaker to warrant the respect of bettors and have this line move closer to a pick’em. Either way, underdog backers drew their line in the sand when this line hit Seahawks +2, as it promptly ticked down a half-point to +1.5.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings: -7 – -5.5
This line movement was not the biggest of the week, but it was one of the most significant, as the line quickly moved off the key number of seven, with no sign of it getting back there.
The Colts made big headlines this week when they announced that Joe Flacco was being inserted as starting quarterback moving forward, while benching Anthony Richardson. Colts backers seemingly responded positively to that switch, and for good reason. Richardson has an NFL-worst 44.4% completion percentage and 24.4% off-target percentage this season. Meanwhile, Flacco is 5-2 in starts since 2023 with an 18-9 TD-INT ratio. He also has a 74 Total QBR (fifth-best, min. 100 pass attempts), completed 66% of his passes, and posted a 7-1 TD-INT ratio this season.
Minnesota is coming off consecutive losses as favorites following a 5-0 start.
NFL Week 9 Total Movement Analysis
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns: 39.5 – 43
It has been generally non-stop support on the Over in this clash of AFC opponents, in large part because of the life that Jameis Winston breathed into the Browns offense.
In his first start as Browns quarterback, Winston turned in his second career game with 300-plus passing yards, three or more touchdown passes, and zero interceptions (his first came back in 2017). It was the first time this season that Cleveland topped the 20-point plateau, and it does not seem to matter to Over backers that the Chargers are the only NFL team to hold each of their opponents to 20 or fewer points this season.
The O/U saw a steady climb from 39.5 to 42.5 when Under backers first weighed in, driving the line down to 41.5. From there, support on the Over took off again, and now the total is at its week-long high of 43. This line movement bucks the trend that the Under is 9-2 in L.A.’s last 11 road games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles: 47.5 – 45.5
The Eagles have been a much more productive offense with a healthy A.J. Brown. In the four games with Brown, the Eagles have averaged 29.8 points per game, converted 31% of their third downs, and scored on 50% of their drives. However, the love for the Under is likely in large part because Philadelphia’s defense has allowed 12.0 points per game during a three-game winning streak.
The Jaguars are also dealing with several injuries among skill position players, as the team lost Christian Kirk for the season with a broken collarbone, and fellow wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. left last week’s game with a rib injury. Meanwhile, Tank Bigsby, Travis Etienne, and Gabe Davis were all limited participants in practice mid-week.
The total initially plummeted from 47.5 to 45.5, then rebounded slightly to 46 before ticking back down a half-point again to 45.5.
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