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NFL Week 9 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome back to my Week 9 NFL Line Report at BettingPros, featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you're unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out my Week 1 introduction.

Long story short, NFL prices aren't standardized, so not all points are priced equally. I'm going to run valuations on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting board each week and chart prices to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the ML versus ATS (and vice-versa).

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NFL Week 9 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

Significant Overnight Line Moves And Notes Since The Open

MIA moved from (PK) to (+2.5) at KC

Having initially projected this game right at the opening PK, I’ll admit the swiftness and severity of the move surprised me. Once any critical number fails, it’s never that much of a surprise if support is found at the next level in that same direction. That said, I think we’re currently experiencing the peak of the pendulum swing. Granted, the Dolphins’ defense has allowed +31 points to the only three quality offenses they’ve faced (LAC, BUF, PHI). However, I’m not necessarily sold on the fact the Chiefs belong in that conversation. Over the last five weeks, KC has been a mediocre scoring offense because they lack explosivity in their wide receiver room. On the other hand, Miami’s offense can hang with anyone as the league’s top dog in points per game, yards per game, yards per play, yards per attempt, yards per rush, EPA/Play, and average drive distance. If the Dolphins get ahead, I have my questions as to whether or not this iteration of the Chiefs can play from behind. I’ll be watching closely to see if this touches (+3) at any point.

MIN moved from (+3) to (+4.5) at ATL

No shocked faces here after news reports confirmed the worst, as the Vikings lost veteran QB Kirk Cousins for the season. Minnesota did not sit on their hands; they immediately traded with Arizona to acquire journeyman rocket scientist Joshua Dobbs for his third air-drop QB assignment in under two years. It’s still unknown whether or not Dobbs can get prepared for this upcoming week, placing the focus on Jaren Hall, a fifth-round rookie out of BYU. Even if we knew Dobbs would start, I’m still not confident the purple people eaters can keep it close without Justin Jefferson.

NYG moved from (+3) to (+1.5) at LV

Yet another move aligned with expectations regarding injury news. Giants’ QB Daniel Jones practiced Wednesday, earning a huge hug from Saquon Barkley at practice. Jones remains on track to start Sunday, so thankfully we shouldn’t be subjected to another week of professional football with single-digit or negative yardage after the New York Giants ended Week 8 with -9 passing yards against the New York Jets. Also noteworthy for this matchup, the Raiders announced they will be benching Jimmy Garoppolo in favor of fourth-round rookie QB Aiden O’Connell.

BUF moved from (PK) to (+2.5) at CIN

Take my stance and assessment from the Dolphins/Chiefs matchup above and copy-paste it here. Another marquee game I projected dead even failed at PK only to quickly collapse to just under a field goal. A move toward Cincinnati after Joe Burrow finally looked healthy makes sense, but my challenge centers around the magnitude. I don’t want to outright ignore larger samples in favor of what I just saw. The Bills have an elite QB and the NFL’s top score when combining EPA/Play on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 27th in yards allowed and boast a bottom-five offensive run game by any standard. I’ll be watching this spread closely. If it goes to BUF (+3), I’m circling the wagons.

NFL Week 9 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves

WAS should move to (+3) from (+3.5) at NE

Lots of injuries and top-tier teams on bye this weekend leaves us with the most consolidated board we’ve had to date. If you reference the vertical axis on the chart below, you’ll see the Commanders priced at ~$14 per point, which is significantly lower than any other games landing on that critical number three. Perhaps the outlying price represents worries in the market following the Commanders trading away Montez Sweat and Chase Young. I’d counter that the Patriots have had their own struggles on the defensive side of the ball. Injuries have piled up, leaving New England bottom-five in scoring and pass yards allowed over the last five weeks. Then the Pats lost their only productive pass-catching weapon in Kendrick Bourne, leaving the offensive cupboards bare. On the Washington side of the ball, Sam Howell showed a serious sign of growth last week, taking only one sack against a dangerous Eagle D after averaging 5.7 per game for the season. As the dust settles, I think this closes at a field goal so to Commanders backers, don’t delay.

NFL Week 9 Favorites with Value on the Moneyline vs. ATS

  • PIT (-148) vs TEN
  • KC (-148) at MIA
  • HOU (-148) vs TB
  • IND (-148) at CAR
  • LAC (-155) at NYJ
  • CIN (-135) vs BUF
  • LV (-125) vs NYG

NFL Week 9 Underdogs with Value ATS vs. On the Moneyline

  • TEN (+2.5) at PIT
  • MIA (+2.5) vs KC
  • TB (+2.5) at HOU
  • CAR (+2.5) vs IND
  • NYJ (+3) vs LAC
  • BUF (+2.5) at CIN
  • NYG (+1.5) at LV

As usual, our cost per point analysis identifies value in games with spreads of three or fewer points. Remember that any (-110) standard price carries an implied probability of 52.4%, another critical part of our calculus. In these examples, betting slight favorites to cover will theoretically save you in terms of total risk but it’s costing you implied probability. To me, the games themselves are too variant and the samples of NFL games we deal with is too low to pass on a chance to maximize on outcomes.

In plain English, play it safe and don’t be greedy trying to cover these narrow spreads. We are nearly halfway through the season and over 10% of all games this year have been decided by two points or less.

Week 9 Best Bet: SEA +6.5 to win 1 unit. Record YTD (2-4-1, -2.40u)

The Seahawks won five of their last six games and are looking more like the contender we expected this preseason. Seattle has excelled as the NFL’s top scoring defense, allowing the fewest yards per play in the league since Week 4. Trust me, I get the case for the Ravens as a favorite, but I’ve got this one closer to a field goal than a touchdown. The market’s been slow to correct on the Seahawks, especially with Geno Smith’s ability to beat zone defense, which matches up well against the Ravens’ league-leading rate of running two-high coverage (33.2%).

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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