NFL Week 9 Monday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Buccaneers vs. Chiefs)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 9 from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 9's Monday Night Football. In this solo MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchups as we close out the mid-point of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to kick off your week.
Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.
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Monday Night Primer
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sides:
- The Buccaneers have won six of their last 10 games as underdogs.
- But they are just 3-5 ATS as home underdogs.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in six of their last 11 games.
- The Buccaneers have won five of their last six games following a loss.
- Tampa Bay is 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 10 games.
- The underdogs have won seven of the last 15 Buccaneers’ games.
- The Buccaneers are 10-3 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in nine of their last 14 games as underdogs.
- Tampa Bay is 3-2 ATS against the NFC South, with the only losses against the Falcons.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 13 games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 14 of the Chiefs’ last 20 games.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games as underdogs.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games.
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five Monday games.
- The Chiefs are just 50% ATS at home and ATS in their last 21 home games.
Totals:
- Each of the Buccaneers’ last five games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Tampa Bay is 6-2 O/U this season (4-1 at home).
- On defense, they have allowed the 5th most points per game (26.6).
- Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 42 points total at home since 2023 (5-8 record toward the over).
- Ten of the Chiefs’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of the last 16).
- Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them.
- They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
- KC is 2-1 toward the over at home this season (45.7 points per game).
Overall
Baker Mayfield is 2-0 ATS playing in Kansas City. This man has had no fear heading into Patrick Mahomes' house, and I would expect more of the same on Monday night.
Yes, the overall matchup is brutal against the Chiefs’ defense, but 9 points is just too many points to bet against Mayfield as an underdog playing on the road. The Buccaneers are 2-1 on the road this season, with their only loss coming in OT versus the Falcons. Last season, in 10 road games, the Buccaneers were 5-5 overall but lost just one game by more than a score.
And eventually, laying so many points with a Chiefs team that is just trying to escape with wins is going to catch up with them. It happened last week when they failed to cover against the Raiders.
There's also a chance that Tampa Bay isn't getting enough credit for how they can execute offensively.
Mayfield has completed 168 of 206 pass attempts under 10 air yards, generating league-highs in yards (1,525), touchdowns (14), and EPA per dropback (+0.30) on short pass attempts. Mayfield has thrown the ball less than 10 air yards on a career-high 72.5% of his passes. The Chiefs have allowed opposing offenses to generate +0.17 EPA per pass and a success rate of 55.7% when targeting players less than 10 yards downfield, both of which rank bottom 4 in the NFL according to Next Gen Stats.
KC also blitzes at the 5th-highest rate (35.2%) this season and the 2nd-highest rate on 3rd down (45.6%). The Chiefs are effective when blitzing as they have allowed a league-low 4.6 yards per attempt. Mayfield has completed 76% of his passes against the blitz (2nd-highest) but he has also taken 11 sacks when blitzed (2nd-most).
If he can avoid the back-breaking sacks with quick passes and tactical scrambles, the Buccaneers are covering this 9-point line.
The Chiefs defense ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to TEs this season, so we should see another productive game from Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton, along with the running backs out of the backfield. The Chiefs have allowed the last four RBs they have faced to go over their receiving yards and receptions prop.
The Chiefs will most likely be 8-0 when the dust settles on Monday night, but it won't be by a double-digit margin of victory.
Props:
The Chiefs have generated +0.24 EPA per carry and a 60.0% success rate on designed runs into stacked boxes (8+ defenders), both of which lead the NFL. The Buccaneers have stacked the box on 36.2% of designed runs faced, the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
Cade Otton has generated +3.0 receptions over expected over the past two games, the most over a two-week stretch by any tight end this season.
Otton has thrived in the short passing game over the past two weeks, catching 15 of his 17 targets under 10 air yards for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Otton also generated +34 receiving yards over expected on short passes over the past two weeks, the most among tight ends.
The Buccaneers’ defense has eight different defenders who have allowed at least 150 yards as the nearest defender, the most in the NFL according to Next Gen Stats. They have also allowed the 3rd-most yards after catch (1,141) and the 4th-most yards after catch over expected (+208). Xavier Worthy made an impact with four catches for 37 yards and a touchdown on nine targets in Week 8. Worthy ran a route on 69% of dropbacks. He saw two red zone targets and secured one touchdown. The rookie commanded 23% of the targets, gathering 63 air yards, representing 25% of the team's air yards. If there's ever a matchup where Worthy's explosiveness can be on full display, it would be against the blitz-happy Buccaneers, who are daring the Chiefs to hang a big play or two.
My Picks: