NFL Week 9 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)
I have two plays for this week's edition of futures bet recommendations, both of which involve players on the Miami Dolphins. The first is a bet on Tua Tagovailoa to win the MVP award, as he's still the third favorite at some books despite leading the league in most QB statistics while positioning the Dolphins to hold a top seed in the AFC when the playoffs come.
The Dolphins have the opportunity to pick up some big wins down the stretch, and Tua has the perfect narrative for MVP voters who may be looking to pivot from casting their ballot for Patrick Mahomes once again.
The second play is for Christian McCaffrey to lead the NFL in rushing TDs, which is an indirect fade of the current rushing TD leader Raheem Mostert. Mostert has been incredibly explosive this season, but some of his production is simply non-reproducible, and he'll soon again be sharing the backfield with De'Von Achane when he returns from injured reserve (IR).
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NFL Week 9: Best Futures Bets
Tua Tagovailoa to win NFL MVP (+350 @ FanDuel)
This market is frankly just mispriced, as most books still have Patrick Mahomes as the favorite to win the award. Tua is at the helm of the highest-scoring offense by a wide margin, with a team record that is currently tied with the Ravens, Chiefs and Jaguars as the best in the AFC. He's leading the entire NFL in passing yardage, passing yards per game, passing TDs, passer rating and net yards per pass attempt. He has one fewer interception than Mahomes, and he's outpacing him in yards per completion, completion% and TD% in addition to all of his league-leading statistics.
The Dolphins have a mixed bag regarding their remaining schedule, with very winnable games against the Raiders, Commanders, Titans and Jets (two times) and tougher games against the Chiefs (this Sunday in Germany), Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. If Tua continues to play well and the Dolphins can pick up wins in those higher-profile games, it'll go a long way toward the Dolphins earning a top seed in the AFC and adding notoriety to Tua's MVP campaign.
It also doesn't hurt that the MVP is voted on by members of the media, who may be feeling a little bit of "voter fatigue" regarding Mahomes (we saw the same thing happen to Nikola Jokic in the NBA last year), and Tua seems to be a pretty well-respected player who has worked his way back from some horrific head injuries last season. If Tua plays well in a win against the Chiefs on Sunday, he will almost certainly become the favorite, so I'd grab it now while he's still the third favorite at most books.
Christian McCaffrey to lead the NFL in Rushing TDs (+350 @ FanDuel)
McCaffrey currently trails the league leader Raheem Mostert by one TD in this category, with three of Mostert's TDs coming in Miami's 70-point outburst against the Broncos. Mostert has also had the backfield to himself for the past three weeks, with rookie sensation De'Von Achane sure to work his way back into the fold when he returns from IR. McCaffrey has logged at least one rushing TD in all but one game this season and in 13 out of his 19 total games on the 49ers.
Despite the recent 49ers swoon, McCaffrey has still found the end zone five total times, with two coming on the ground in those three losses. This play is a sell on Mostert at his peak and a "buy low" on McCaffrey, who remains the focal point on one of the best offenses in the NFL and only needs one rushing TD to be tied for the league lead.
Barring injury, I don't see how CMC doesn't end the season with the league's most rushing TDs.
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