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NFL Week 9 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

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There’s a good film from 1993 called “A Bronx Tale,” starring Robert De Niro and Chazz Palminteri. It’s part Mafia movie, part coming-of-age movie. I highly recommend it. Anyway, there’s a character in the movie nicknamed “The Mush.” The mobsters in the film are avid gamblers, and whenever The Mush shows up in a scene, horse races go bad and dice go cold. He’s a human bad-luck talisman.

I’m feeling like The Mush these days. I’ve been icy-cold with prop bets. I’ve bet overs on players who fell ill (Bijan Robinson, Patrick Mahomes) and unders on players who had breakout games (Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride).

I like to think I’m good at this stuff. I went 90-64 on NFL player props last season. But this season has been rough. I’ve fallen below .500. The phrase “process over results” annoys me because I care far more about results. But I feel like my process has been sound this season and the results simply aren’t cooperating.

But enough crying. It’s time to dust myself off and try to start the month of November on the right foot.

Let’s get to this week’s selections.

But first, a recap of a hellish Week 8 …

The wins: Taysom Hill over 10.5 rushing yards, A.J. Brown over 88.5 receiving yards, Josh Downs over 44.5 receiving yards

The losses: Bryce Young under 232.5 passing yards, Patrick Mahomes over 272.5 passing yards, Tyson Bagent under 204.5 passing yards, Breece Hall over 68.5 rushing yards, Kareem Hunt under 46.5 rushing yards, Nico Collins over 55.5 receiving yards, Michael Thomas under 52.5 receiving yards, Trey McBride under 31.5 receiving yards

  • Last week: 3-8
  • Season record: 35-40

Here are my favorite selections for Week 9 …

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday night.

Derek Carr OVER 245.5 passing yards

The Saints have been exceedingly pass-heavy of late, with fewer than 80 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Carr has topped 300 passing yards in three straight contests, and this week he gets a Bears defense that’s better against the run than the pass. Chicago ranks 10th in DVOA against the run, 31st against the pass. The Bears are giving up 262.3 passing yards per game, third most in the league. Carr is averaging 35.3 pass attempts per game, and he’s increasingly been dumping off to Alvin Kamara, who’s averaging 8.8 targets since the start of October. Expect another pass-heavy game plan for the Saints this week.

Gardner Minshew OVER 231.5 passing yards

Minshew has averaged 40.8 pass attempts and 268.5 passing yards in his four starts this season. Those starts came against the Ravens, Jaguars, Browns and Saints, all of whom have pass defenses that rank in the top eight in DVOA vs. the pass. Minshew gets a softer matchup this week against the Panthers, who rank 14th in DVOA against the pass and 23rd in opponent passer rating. Carolina will be without its best cornerback, Jaycee Horn, who has a hamstring injury. Under head coach Shane Steichen, the Colts really stomp the accelerator when they have the ball. Indianapolis ranks first in offensive pace, taking an average of 25.79 seconds between plays, according to FTN. That means more plays per game and more opportunities for Minshew to accrue passing yardage. I think he’ll accrue a lot of it Sunday vs. Carolina.

Justin Herbert UNDER 251.5 passing yards

Herbert has a daunting Monday-night matchup against a Jets defense that is allowing only 184.4 passing yards per game, fifth-fewest in the league. The Chargers are already without WR Mike Williams, who’s out for the season, and they’re expected to be without Williams’ replacement, Josh Palmer, who’s dealing with a knee injury and hasn’t been practicing this week. Herbert is terrific, but this is a tough spot. I’m smashing the under.

Kenneth Walker UNDER 53.5 rushing yards

Walker has been dealing with a calf injury. The Seahawks managed his workload carefully last week against the Browns, with rookie RB Zach Charbonnet out-snapping Walker 34-24. Walker had eight carries for 66 yards. He’ll have a difficult road matchup this week against a Ravens defense that ranks fifth in DVOA against the run. With Walker unlikely to see more than 15 carries, the under on his rushing total seems like a strong percentage play.

Taysom Hill OVER 17.5 rushing yards

I hit the over on Hill’s rushing total last week (10.5) and am going back to the well despite the higher number. Hill is averaging 4.8 rush attempts per game and 5.3 yards per carry this season. He’s topped this number in three of his last four games, and he’s had 14 carries for 81 yards over the last two weeks. Hill is a good bet to clear this number against the Bears in Week 9.

Jonathan Taylor OVER 63.5 rushing yards

Taylor has looked like the superstar he is over the last two weeks, averaging 85 rushing yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. Yes, Taylor is still sharing work with Zach Moss, but Taylor out-snapped Moss 43-28 in Week 8, and Moss is dealing with heel and elbow injuries. The reason I really love this bet is the matchup. Taylor gets to feast on a Panthers run defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against the run and is allowing 139.4 rushing yards per game. Running backs are gashing Carolina for 5.0 yards per carry. Taylor might be able to clear this number by halftime.

Josh Jacobs UNDER 71.5 rushing yards

Jacobs is averaging 51 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry, and he’s topped this number only once this season. Even then, he just barely topped it, with 77 rushing yards against the Patriots in Week 6. It’s possible the Raiders will want to be run-heavy with rookie Aidan O’Connell taking over at quarterback for the demoted Jimmy Garoppolo. But when O’Connell made a start against the Chargers in Week 4, Jacobs had more yardage as a pass catcher than as a runner, with 17-58-1 rushing and 8-81-0 receiving. And while Jacobs’ Week 9 matchup against the Giants isn’t a difficult one on paper, it’s possible the Giants load up the box to stop the run and dare the rookie quarterback to move the ball through the air.

Justin Watson OVER 16.5 receiving yards

The Chiefs’ designated deep threat returned from an elbow injury last week and caught 2-of-3 targets for 42 yards against the Broncos. Watson has cleared this number in 5-of-7 games this season, and the way he’s used, he might only need one catch to win this bet. Watson’s average depth of target this season is 23 yards, and he’s averaging 21.8 yards per catch. He doesn’t get a lot of targets, but Watson has drawn at least three targets in all but two games this season. He has a great quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, and the likelihood of a Sunday shootout with the Dolphins seemingly bodes well for the Chiefs’ deep-ball artist.

Alvin Kamara OVER 31.5 receiving yards

Kamara has been a pass-catching machine ever since returning from a three-game suspension. He’s averaging 8.8 targets, 7.8 receptions and 45.6 receiving yards per game. Kamara gets a Week 9 matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed a league-high 497 receiving yards to opposing RBs. This one seems easy.

Demario Douglas OVER 42.5 receiving yards

A standout in training camp and the preseason, Douglas will get his chance to shine now that Kendrick Bourne is out for the year with a torn ACL. A sixth-round rookie from Liberty University. “Pop” Douglas had a 77% snap share last week and had a season-high five catches, although he only netted 25 yards. Douglas gets a juicy home matchup against a Washington defense that has given up more receiving yards to wide receivers than anyone else in the league. Opposing WRs are scorching the Commanders for 10.7 yards per target, and Washington’s cornerbacks will be sitting ducks now that the Commanders have traded away their two best pass rushers, Montez Sweat and Chase Young.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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