The BettingPros Player Prop Cheat Sheet is an invaluable tool to help guide your player prop wagering. Here are some bets the cheat sheet likes this week and that I like enough to bet on myself.
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Zach Wilson Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-129 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Let's start off in the Meadowlands, where the Buffalo Bills take on the New York Jets. Simply put, Zach Wilson is bad at football. Wilson's quarterback rating of 71.0 ranks 34th in the NFL this season. There are only 32 teams in the NFL, and 35 quarterbacks are eligible to be ranked by quarterback rating.
To make matters worse, the Bills rank ninth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, with just 203.1. In his last 10 games, Wilson is averaging 184.3 passing yards per game and has failed to eclipse 211.5 in seven of those games (70%). Furthermore, the BettingPros cheat sheet projects Wilson to finish with 195.8 passing yards, which is a -15.7 difference from his current line. Buffalo should have no trouble handling the second-year turnover-happy quarterback during Sunday's contest.
Travis Etienne Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-110 via BetMGM)
The Las Vegas Raiders travel to Jacksonville in Week 9 for a matchup against the Jaguars. Second-year running back Travis Etienne has shown signs of explosiveness all season long. Through eight weeks, Etienne is tied for first in the NFL in yards per carry (excluding quarterbacks) with 6.2. After Week 5’s loss to the Houston Texans, the Jaguars decided to give sole control of the reins to the backfield to Etienne.
Since then, Etienne has not had a game without double-digit carries. More importantly, Etienne is averaging 118.7 rushing yards per game at 7.4 yards per carry, surpassing 77.5 rushing yards in all three games. I expect the Jaguars to continue to lean on their most explosive offensive weapon this week against the Raiders. Additionally, the BettingPros cheat sheet projects Etienne to have 88.5 rushing yards, a staggering 11 yard increase from his current line. With his increase in production and efficient play style, Etienne should have no trouble going over 77.5 rushing yards on Sunday.
DJ Moore Under 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Next, let's look at the Carolina Panthers against the Cincinnati Bengals. DJ Moore has had a rough start to the season. Despite recording 1100+ receiving yards and 68+ receiving yards per game over the past three seasons, Moore was incapable of surpassing 68 yards in any of his first six games. In total, Moore has totaled more than 68.5 receiving yards in just two of his eight total games (25%) this season, with one resulting in a 69-yard finish. To make matters worse, the Bengals rank just outside of the top 10 (11th) in receiving yards allowed to the wide receiver position, with just 145.2 per game. Additionally, the Betting Pros cheat sheet projects Moore to record just 55.1 receiving yards, which is a -13.4 difference from his current line. I'll be backing the numbers and historical trends by taking Moore under 68.5 receiving yards on Sunday.
Josh Allen Under 278.5 Passing Yards (-115 via BetMGM)
Finally, let's go back to the Meadowlands for my final player prop. Josh Allen (+125) has been the clear frontrunner in the MVP race through the first half of the season. The Bills are dominating, and Allen leads the NFL in passing yards per game with 314.
However, I believe that Sunday's game will slightly bring down that yards per game number for a variety of reasons. The Jets have been solid at limiting passing yards so far this season. New York ranks 10th in the NFL, allowing just 203.4 passing yards per game. This is likely due to the absurd performance from rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner. However, the main reasoning behind backing the under on Josh Allen's passing yards is the anticipated game script. The Bills are currently -11.5 road favorites, which likely spells for early domination from Buffalo and a decrease in late-game passing.
Additionally, the Betting Pros cheat sheet projects that Allen will finish with 270 passing yards, which is a -8.5 yard difference from the current line. I'll be backing the under and hoping Allen and the Bills won't be stat-padding late in the game.
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