NFL Week 9 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets (2022)

In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that - as of writing on Wednesday - I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.

Week 8 Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-8 (-0.72 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2

Year-to-Date Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 53-44-1 (+4.71 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 22-18

All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Freedman's Week 9 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 9 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented - along with my projected lines and edges - from the perspective of the home team.

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Nov. 2, at 2 pm ET. 

Home Team Road Team Consensus Line Freedman Line Projected Edge
HOU PHI 14 12.5 -1.5
ATL LAC 3.5 3.25 -0.25
DET GB 3.5 2 -1.5
CHI MIA 5 4 -1
CIN CAR -7.5 -9.25 -1.75
JAX LV 1.5 1.25 -0.25
NE IND -5.5 -5.25 0.25
NYJ BUF 12.5 12.25 -0.25
WAS MIN 3.5 3.5 0
ARI SEA -2 -1 1
TB LAR -3 -3.25 -0.25
KC TEN -12.5 -11.5 1
NO BAL 2.5 -0.25 -2.75

 

Based on my current spread projections, I'm willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.

  • Bengals -7.5 vs. Panthers
  • Seahawks +2 at Cardinals
  • Saints +2.5 vs. Ravens

Freedman's Week 9 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.

Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals

Check out our Panthers at Bengals matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: Paycor Superdome
  • TV: FOX

Panthers at Bengals: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Bengals -7.5
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Moneyline: Bengals -340, Panthers +275

Panthers at Bengals: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 2.

  • Spread: Bengals - 48% bets, 63% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 33% bets, 64% money
  • Moneyline: Panthers - 26% bets, 87% money

Panthers at Bengals: Injuries

Panthers: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Juston Burris SAF Concussion DNP
Donte Jackson CB Ankle DNP
Stephen Sullivan TE Illness DNP
D’Onta Foreman RB Rest DNP
Amare Barno DE Knee LP
Jaycee Horn CB Ankle LP
Chuba Hubbard RB Ankle LP
Frankie Luvu OLB Shoulder LP

 

Panthers: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos
Jeremy Chinn S IR
Matt Corral QB IR
Pat Elflein C/G IR
Zane Gonzalez K IR
Andre Roberts WR IR
Stantley Thomas-Oliver III CB IR
Sam Darnold QB DR
Henry Anderson DE NFI

 

Panthers Injury News

Bengals: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Chidobe Awuzie CB Knee DNP
Ja’Marr Chase WR Hip DNP
La’el Collins OT NIR – Rest DNP
Tre Flowers CB Hamstring DNP
Mike Hilton CB Finger DNP
Josh Tupou DT Calf DNP
Eli Apple CB Hamstring LP
Stanley Morgan WR Hamstring LP
Sam Hubbard DE Finger FP
Samaje Perine RB Finger FP

 

Bengals: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Tycen Anderson S IR
Ben Brown C IR
Clark Harris LS IR
Elijah Holyfield HB IR
Desmond Noel G IR
Isaiah Prince OT IR
DJ Reader DT IR
Drew Sample TE IR
Brandon Wilson S PUP

 

Bengals Injury News

Panthers at Bengals: 2022 ATS & ML Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Panthers ATS & ML Records

  • ATS: 3-5 (-28.1% ROI)
  • ML: 2-6 (4.4% ROI)

Bengals ATS & ML Records

  • ATS: 5-3 (19.3% ROI)
  • ML: 4-4 (-27.6% ROI)

Panthers at Bengals: Notable Trend

  • Bengals QB Joe Burrow: 11-4 ATS (39.8% ROI) off loss

Panthers at Bengals: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Panthers Offense vs. Bengals Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.104 30 -0.027 9 -21
Total SR 37.7% 32 43.1% 10 -22
Total DVOA -14.7% 28 -5.7% 9 -19
Dropback EPA -0.165 32 -0.038 7 -25
Dropback SR 35.2% 32 43.4% 4 -28
Pass DVOA -23.8% 32 -4.8% 7 -25
Adj. Sack Rate 8.2% 22 5.7% 24 2
Rush EPA -0.008 9 -0.011 19 10
Rush SR 41.4% 17 42.6% 18 1
Rush DVOA 1.5% 12 -6.6% 15 3
Adj. Line Yards 4.80 8 4.56 20 12
Yards per Play 5.3 19 5.4 10 -9
Points per Game 19.8 22 20.5 13 -9

 

Bengals Offense vs. Panthers Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.061 8 -0.006 13 5
Total SR 46.3% 10 42.1% 8 -2
Total DVOA 0.7% 17 2.7% 18 1
Dropback EPA 0.152 5 0.084 20 15
Dropback SR 49.5% 8 44.9% 15 7
Pass DVOA 13.8% 14 14.8% 27 13
Adj. Sack Rate 9.3% 28 4.7% 31 3
Rush EPA -0.143 27 -0.137 4 -23
Rush SR 39.3% 23 37.9% 8 -15
Rush DVOA -9.7% 22 -12.1% 7 -15
Adj. Line Yards 4.39 17 4.31 12 -5
Yards per Play 5.4 15 5.4 10 -5
Points per Game 23.3 12 23.3 21 9

 

Panthers at Bengals: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: P.J. Walker

Metric Output Rank
ATS Value vs. Avg. -3.9 42

 

Career: P.J. Walker

  • AY/A: 5.1
  • QB Elo per Game: -45.8

2022: Joe Burrow

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.129 5
AY/A 7.9 7
QBR 53.5 15
ATS Value vs. Avg. 2.5 5

 

Career: Joe Burrow

  • AY/A: 8.0
  • QB Elo per Game: 33.4

Key Matchup: Bengals Pass Offense vs. Panthers Pass Defense

Even with their rebuilt offensive line, the Bengals have been poor running the ball this year, and the Panthers have a top-10 rush defense, so it would be unwise for the Bengals to lean heavily into the ground game.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Rush EPA -0.143 27 -0.137 4 -23
Rush SR 0.393 23 0.379 8 -15
Rush DVOA -0.097 22 -0.121 7 -15

 

They’re without No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip), but even so they should still opt to attack the Panthers via the air. For the season, the Bengals have been a solidly above-average team in the passing game, where the Panthers defense has been been subpar.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Dropback EPA 0.152 5 0.084 20 15
Dropback SR 0.495 8 0.449 15 7
Pass DVOA 0.138 14 0.148 27 13

 

The Bengals won’t be as explosive without Chase, but they still have a strong quartet of pass catchers with WRs Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, TE Hayden Hurst and RB Joe Mixon.

And the Panthers are dealing with injuries in their secondary: CB Donte Jackson (ankle) and S Justin Burris (concussion) both exited Week 8 early, CB Jaycee Horn (ankle, ribs) has been playing through various injuries for weeks, and S Jeremy Chinn (hamstring, IR) is out.

This line was -9.5 last week in the lookahead market, and the early line on Sunday night — before the Bengals played on Monday Night Football — was -8.5.

At -7.5, this line is too low.

Best Line: Bengals -7.5 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Bengals -9.5 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection:
Bengals -9.25

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>


Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Check out our Seahawks at Cardinals matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
  • Location: State Farm Stadium
  • TV: FOX

Seahawks at Cardinals: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Cardinals -2
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Moneyline: Cardinals -130, Seahawks +110

Seahawks at Cardinals: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 2.

  • Spread: Seahawks - 81% bets, 89% money
  • Over/Under: Over - 57% bets, 88% money
  • Moneyline: Seahawks - 28% bets, 36% money

Seahawks at Cardinals: Injuries

Seahawks: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Marquise Goodwin WR Groin DNP
Darrell Taylor OLB Groin DNP
Gabe Jackson G Hip/knee LP
Penny Hart WR Hamstring LP
Tyler Lockett WR Hamstring/Ribs LP
DK Metcalf WR Knee LP
Austin Blythe C Knee LP
Jordyn Brooks LB Ankle LP
Ryan Neal S Ankle LP
Noah Fant TE Hamstring LP

 

Seahawks: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Jamal Adams SS IR
Isaiah Dunn CB IR
Darryl Johnson LB IR
Tyler Ott LS IR
Rashaad Penny RB IR
Alton Robinson LB IR
Tyreke Smith LB IR
Cody Thompson WR IR
Tre Brown CB PUP
Ben Burr-Kirven LB PUP
Jon Rhattigan LB PUP

 

Seahawks Injury News

Cardinals: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Budda Baker S Ankle DNP
Max Garcia G Shoulder DNP
Rodney Hudson C Knee DNP
D.J. Humphries OT Back DNP
Jonathan Ledbetter DE Ribs DNP
Christian Matthew CB Hamstring DNP
James Conner RB Ribs LP
Dennis Gardeck LB Ankle LP
Byron Murphy CB Back LP
Matt Prater K Right Hip LP
Cameron Thomas LB Back LP
Josh Jones OT Knee FP

 

Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Marquise Brown WR IR
Tae Daley S IR
Marquis Hayes OL IR
Rashard Lawrence DT IR
Joshua Miles OL IR
Justin Pugh OL IR
Nick Vigil ILB IR
Jonathan Ward RB IR
Charles Washington S IR
Antoine Wesley WR IR
Darrel Williams RB IR

 

Cardinals Injury News

Seahawks at Cardinals: 2022 ATS & ML Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Seahawks ATS & ML Records

  • ATS: 5-3 (18.9% ROI)
  • ML: 5-3 (54.2% ROI)

Cardinals ATS & ML Records

  • ATS: 3-5 (-17.5% ROI)
  • ML: 4-4 (-4.5% ROI)

Seahawks at Cardinals: Notable Trends

Seahawks Trends

  • QB Geno Smith: 24-16-2 ATS (15.4% ROI) for career
  • QB Geno Smith: 8-3 ATS (39.8% ROI) for team
  • QB Geno Smith: 17-10-2 ATS (20.2% ROI) as underdog
  • QB Geno Smith: 6-2 ATS (45.0% ROI) as underdog for team

Cardinals Trends

  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 11-17 ATS (16.8% ROI for faders) at home
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 9-15 ATS (20.5% ROI for faders) as favorite
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 11-5 ATS (31.9% ROI for faders) as home favorite

Seahawks at Cardinals: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Seahawks Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.063 7 0.029 18 11
Total SR 44.9% 14 50.2% 30 16
Total DVOA 12.1% 7 3.9% 19 12
Dropback EPA 0.122 8 0.117 26 18
Dropback SR 51.5% 3 54.1% 32 29
Pass DVOA 31.0% 5 11.8% 23 18
Adj. Sack Rate 8.9% 27 5.4% 27 0
Rush EPA -0.036 20 -0.130 5 -15
Rush SR 34.1% 31 43.2% 21 -10
Rush DVOA 0.5% 13 -9.4% 11 -2
Adj. Line Yards 4.19 26 4.45 15 -11
Yards per Play 6 5 5.8 24 19
Points per Game 26.3 4 26.3 30 26

 

Cardinals Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.003 20 0.042 21 1
Total SR 43.3% 22 41.5% 5 -17
Total DVOA -11.8% 26 -2.6% 11 -15
Dropback EPA 0.004 21 0.108 24 3
Dropback SR 44.2% 25 44.5% 10 -15
Pass DVOA -5.6% 27 3.2% 14 -13
Adj. Sack Rate 6.6% 13 7.9% 11 -2
Rush EPA -0.019 14 -0.055 16 2
Rush SR 41.7% 13 37.1% 6 -7
Rush DVOA -10.4% 23 -9.5% 10 -13
Adj. Line Yards 4.05 28 4.48 16 -12
Yards per Play 4.9 29 5.7 19 -10
Points per Game 22.8 15 24.9 25 10

 

Seahawks at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Geno Smith

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.152 4
AY/A 8.2 5
QBR 66.6 4
ATS Value vs. Avg. 1.1 13

 

Career: Geno Smith

  • AY/A: 6.4
  • QB Elo per Game: -42.8

2022: Kyler Murray

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.051 21
AY/A 5.9 30
QBR 48.3 18
ATS Value vs. Avg. 2.1 9

 

Career: Kyler Murray

  • AY/A: 7.0
  • QB Elo per Game: 64.7

Key Matchup: Seahawks Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense

Going back to last season, when he made three spot starts for the injured Russell Wilson, QB Geno Smith has a top-four 8.6 AY/A and 0.137 composite EPA + CPOE among all passers with multiple starts.

The world is Smith's kitchen, and he's cooking. For the season, the Seahawks are top-eight in most pass efficiency metrics, and the Cardinals defense is bottom-10.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Dropback EPA 0.122 8 0.117 26 18
Dropback SR 0.515 3 0.541 32 29
Pass DVOA 0.31 5 0.118 23 18

 

It helps that he has a top-10 pass-catching unit anchored by WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who have a massive edge over an outmatched secondary in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.

Rank WRs & TEs Opp Secondary Secondary Rank Edge
10 SEA ARI 27 17

 

In Week 1, Smith was the No. 32 quarterback in our power rankings. Now, he’s No. 12 — not far behind Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (No. 9).

Given how well Smith has played this year - and how bad the Cardinals secondary has been - it's hard to see why the Seahawks are underdogs, especially against a divisional opponent they beat 19-9 in Week 6.

This number was +3.5 in the lookahead market, but I still like it at +2.

Best Line: Seahawks +2 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Seahawks +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection:
Seahawks +1


Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints

Check out our Ravens at Saints matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 7, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
  • Location: Caesars Superdome
  • TV: ESPN

Ravens at Saints: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Ravens -2.5
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Moneyline: Ravens -148, Saints +130

Ravens at Saints: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 2.

  • Spread: Saints - 53% bets, 53% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 76% bets, 96% money
  • Moneyline: Saints - 24% bets, 47% money

Ravens at Saints: Injuries

Ravens: Week 8 Injury Report

Since this is a Monday game, the first injury report for it won’t be available until Thursday, after this piece is published.

Here are the Ravens I’m planning to monitor most closely this week.

  • TE Mark Andrews (shoulder): Exited Week 8 early
  • WR Rashod Bateman (foot): Exited Week 8 early, expected to be out for weeks
  • RB Gus Edwards (hamstring): Exited Week 8 early, uncertain to play
  • DL Calais Campbell (illness): Missed Week 8
  • LB Josh Bynes (quad): Missed Week 8
  • G Ben Cleveland (foot): Missed Weeks 5-8
  • EDGE Tyus Bowser (Achilles): Activated from IR
  • EDGE David Ojabo (Achilles): Activated from IR

Ravens: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Vince Biegel OLB IR
J.K. Dobbins RB IR
Kyle Fuller CB IR
Daelin Hayes OLB IR
Ja’Wuan James T IR
Charlie Kolar TE IR
Steven Means OLB IR
Michael Pierce NT IR
Josh Ross ILB IR
Marcus Williams S IR

 

Ravens Injury News

Saints: Week 8 Injury Report

Again, the first injury report won’t be available until Thursday, after this piece is published.

Here are the Saints I’m planning to monitor most closely.

  • WR Michael Thomas (foot): Missed Weeks 4-8
  • WR Jarvis Landry (ankle): Missed Weeks 5-8
  • CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen): Missed Weeks 6-8
  • TE Adam Trautman (ankle): Missed Weeks 7-8
  • RB Mark Ingram (knee): Exited Week 8 early, expected to be out for weeks

Saints: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Ethan Greenidge OL IR
Deonte Harty WR/RS IR
Albert Huggins DT IR
D’Marco Jackson LB IR
Smoke Monday SAF IR
Trevor Penning OT IR
Bradley Roby CB IR
P.J. Williams CB IR
Dylan Soehner TE PUP

 

Saints Injury News

Ravens at Saints: 2022 ATS & ML Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Ravens ATS & ML Records

  • ATS: 4-4 (-4.9% ROI)
  • ML: 5-3 (1.4% ROI)

Saints ATS & ML Records

  • ATS: 3-5 (-28.2% ROI)
  • ML: 3-5 (-38.9% ROI)

Ravens at Saints: Notable Trends

  • QB Andy Dalton: 42-31-2 ATS (13.1% ROI) as underdog
  • QB Andy Dalton: 3-2 ATS (14.9% ROI) with Saints

Ravens at Saints: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Ravens Offense vs. Saints Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.077 5 -0.012 11 6
Total SR 47.0% 8 42.3% 9 1
Total DVOA 17.5% 2 -2.4% 12 10
Dropback EPA 0.072 13 0.083 19 6
Dropback SR 48.1% 12 45.8% 18 6
Pass DVOA 33.6% 4 2.2% 11 7
Adj. Sack Rate 7.3% 19 7.1% 19 0
Rush EPA 0.084 2 -0.162 1 -1
Rush SR 45.5% 6 36.6% 5 -1
Rush DVOA 11.7% 3 -8.8% 12 9
Adj. Line Yards 4.31 21 4.53 18 -3
Yards per Play 5.9 7 5.3 9 2
Points per Game 26 5 25 28 23

 

Saints Offense vs. Ravens Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.023 15 0.076 28 13
Total SR 49.0% 3 47.0% 27 24
Total DVOA -1.7% 19 2.1% 17 -2
Dropback EPA 0.04 17 0.109 25 8
Dropback SR 50.2% 5 48.4% 25 20
Pass DVOA -0.9% 23 2.3% 12 -11
Adj. Sack Rate 6.1% 10 7.8% 12 2
Rush EPA -0.003 8 0.001 24 16
Rush SR 47.2% 3 43.8% 22 19
Rush DVOA 10.8% 6 1.9% 25 19
Adj. Line Yards 4.97 4 4.72 21 17
Yards per Play 6 5 5.7 19 14
Points per Game 24.9 8 22.9 20 12

 

Ravens at Saints: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Lamar Jackson

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.102 11
AY/A 7.1 13
QBR 63.7 5
ATS Value vs. Avg. 2.4 6

 

Career: Lamar Jackson

  • AY/A: 7.6
  • QB Elo per Game: 80.4

2022: Andy Dalton

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.116 8
AY/A 7.3 11
QBR 55.1 13
ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.7 24

 

Career: Andy Dalton

  • AY/A: 6.7
  • QB Elo per Game: -5.8

Key Matchup: Saints Rush Offense vs. Ravens Rush Defense

For the Saints, No. 1 WR Michael Thomas (foot) has been out since Week 4. No. 2 WR Jarvis Landry (ankle) has been out since Week 5. No. 1 TE Adam Trautman (ankle), since early in Week 6.

Even so, the Saints have managed 29.6 points over the past five games with backup-turned-starting QB Andy Dalton.

How?

The running game.

The Saints have one of the league's best rush attacks, and the Ravens are outside the top 20 in run defense.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Rush EPA -0.003 8 0.001 24 16
Rush SR 0.472 3 0.438 22 19
Rush DVOA 0.108 6 0.019 25 19
Adj. Line Yards 4.97 4 4.72 21 17

 

They have especially struggled since losing run-stuffing NT Michael Pierce (biceps, IR), who exited Week 3 with an injury after just 11 snaps.

  • Weeks 1-2: 36.1% rush SR (No. 10) | -10.3% rush DVOA (No. 17)
  • Weeks 3-8: 46.0% rush SR (No. 28) | 5.0% rush DVOA (No. 27)

Even with the Monday addition of LB Roquan Smith (acquired from Bears via trade), the Ravens will likely still struggle against the run.

In the offseason, this number was Saints +0.5, and that’s close to where I think this line should be.

Best Line: Saints +3 (-120, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Saints +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection:
Saints -0.25

View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>


Freedman's Week 9 ATS Bets to Consider

In addition to the three bets above, these other bets have my eye.

  • Bears +5 vs. Dolphins
  • Lions +3.5 vs. Packers
  • Titans +12.5 at Chiefs

Bears +5: I bet this at +3.5 in the lookahead market (ugh). I like this line per my power ratings and projected spread — but I don’t actually like how the Bears match up against the Dolphins.

Lions +3.5: I bet this at +3.5 in the lookahead market. I have this projected at +2, so I see strong theoretical value in this line above the key number of +3, but I’m currently worried about the status of RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle), given that the main edge the Lions have is their run offense vs. the Packers run defense.

Titans +12.5: I haven’t bet this yet, although I’m tempted. I expect QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) to play after he practiced limitedly on Wednesday, and HC Mike Vrabel is 20-12 ATS as an underdog (7-2 ATS as an underdog of six-plus points).


Freedman's 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I'm leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.

  • Bengals -7.5 vs. Panthers
  • Seahawks +2.5 at Cardinals
  • Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Rams
  • Titans +12.5 at Chiefs
  • Saints +2.5 vs. Ravens

Also in consideration are:

  • Eagles -13.5 at Texans
  • Bears +5 vs. Dolphins
  • Lions +3.5 vs. Packers

In the DraftKings contest, every participant must take one “skip week” in which no selections are made. With six teams on bye and three nastily large double-digit spreads, this might be the week I skip. I’m still deliberating.

Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.

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