NFL Week 9 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: Panthers vs. Bengals (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet there as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord. Let’s take a closer look at one game I like this week, Panthers vs. Bengals.
Week 8 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-8 (-0.72 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 53-44-1 (+4.71 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 22-18
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
NFL Week 9 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: Panthers vs. Bengals
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals
Check out our Panthers at Bengals matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Paycor Superdome
- TV: FOX
Panthers at Bengals: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Bengals -7.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Bengals -340, Panthers +275
Panthers at Bengals: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 2.
- Spread: Bengals – 48% bets, 63% money
- Over/Under: Under – 33% bets, 64% money
- Moneyline: Panthers – 26% bets, 87% money
Panthers at Bengals: Injuries
Panthers: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Juston Burris | SAF | Concussion | DNP |
| Donte Jackson | CB | Ankle | DNP |
| Stephen Sullivan | TE | Illness | DNP |
| D’Onta Foreman | RB | Rest | DNP |
| Amare Barno | DE | Knee | LP |
| Jaycee Horn | CB | Ankle | LP |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | Ankle | LP |
| Frankie Luvu | OLB | Shoulder | LP |
Panthers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | |
| Jeremy Chinn | S | IR |
| Matt Corral | QB | IR |
| Pat Elflein | C/G | IR |
| Zane Gonzalez | K | IR |
| Andre Roberts | WR | IR |
| Stantley Thomas-Oliver III | CB | IR |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DR |
| Henry Anderson | DE | NFI |
Bengals: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Chidobe Awuzie | CB | Knee | DNP |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR | Hip | DNP |
| La’el Collins | OT | NIR – Rest | DNP |
| Tre Flowers | CB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Mike Hilton | CB | Finger | DNP |
| Josh Tupou | DT | Calf | DNP |
| Eli Apple | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Stanley Morgan | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Sam Hubbard | DE | Finger | FP |
| Samaje Perine | RB | Finger | FP |
Bengals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tycen Anderson | S | IR |
| Ben Brown | C | IR |
| Clark Harris | LS | IR |
| Elijah Holyfield | HB | IR |
| Desmond Noel | G | IR |
| Isaiah Prince | OT | IR |
| DJ Reader | DT | IR |
| Drew Sample | TE | IR |
| Brandon Wilson | S | PUP |
Panthers at Bengals: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Panthers ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-28.1% ROI)
- ML: 2-6 (4.4% ROI)
Bengals ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 5-3 (19.3% ROI)
- ML: 4-4 (-27.6% ROI)
Panthers at Bengals: Notable Trend
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow: 11-4 ATS (39.8% ROI) off loss
Panthers at Bengals: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Panthers Offense vs. Bengals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.104 | 30 | -0.027 | 9 | -21 |
| Total SR | 37.7% | 32 | 43.1% | 10 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | -14.7% | 28 | -5.7% | 9 | -19 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.165 | 32 | -0.038 | 7 | -25 |
| Dropback SR | 35.2% | 32 | 43.4% | 4 | -28 |
| Pass DVOA | -23.8% | 32 | -4.8% | 7 | -25 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.2% | 22 | 5.7% | 24 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.008 | 9 | -0.011 | 19 | 10 |
| Rush SR | 41.4% | 17 | 42.6% | 18 | 1 |
| Rush DVOA | 1.5% | 12 | -6.6% | 15 | 3 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.80 | 8 | 4.56 | 20 | 12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 19 | 5.4 | 10 | -9 |
| Points per Game | 19.8 | 22 | 20.5 | 13 | -9 |
Bengals Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.061 | 8 | -0.006 | 13 | 5 |
| Total SR | 46.3% | 10 | 42.1% | 8 | -2 |
| Total DVOA | 0.7% | 17 | 2.7% | 18 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.152 | 5 | 0.084 | 20 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 49.5% | 8 | 44.9% | 15 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 13.8% | 14 | 14.8% | 27 | 13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.3% | 28 | 4.7% | 31 | 3 |
| Rush EPA | -0.143 | 27 | -0.137 | 4 | -23 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 23 | 37.9% | 8 | -15 |
| Rush DVOA | -9.7% | 22 | -12.1% | 7 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.39 | 17 | 4.31 | 12 | -5 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 15 | 5.4 | 10 | -5 |
| Points per Game | 23.3 | 12 | 23.3 | 21 | 9 |
Panthers at Bengals: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: P.J. Walker
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -3.9 | 42 |
Career: P.J. Walker
- AY/A: 5.1
- QB Elo per Game: -45.8
2022: Joe Burrow
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.129 | 5 |
| AY/A | 7.9 | 7 |
| QBR | 53.5 | 15 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.5 | 5 |
Career: Joe Burrow
- AY/A: 8.0
- QB Elo per Game: 33.4
Key Matchup: Bengals Pass Offense vs. Panthers Pass Defense
Even with their rebuilt offensive line, the Bengals have been poor running the ball this year, and the Panthers have a top-10 rush defense, so it would be unwise for the Bengals to lean heavily into the ground game.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.143 | 27 | -0.137 | 4 | -23 |
| Rush SR | 0.393 | 23 | 0.379 | 8 | -15 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.097 | 22 | -0.121 | 7 | -15 |
They’re without No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip), but even so they should still opt to attack the Panthers via the air. For the season, the Bengals have been a solidly above-average team in the passing game, where the Panthers defense has been been subpar.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | 0.152 | 5 | 0.084 | 20 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 0.495 | 8 | 0.449 | 15 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.138 | 14 | 0.148 | 27 | 13 |
The Bengals won’t be as explosive without Chase, but they still have a strong quartet of pass catchers with WRs Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, TE Hayden Hurst and RB Joe Mixon.
And the Panthers are dealing with injuries in their secondary: CB Donte Jackson (ankle) and S Justin Burris (concussion) both exited Week 8 early, CB Jaycee Horn (ankle, ribs) has been playing through various injuries for weeks, and S Jeremy Chinn (hamstring, IR) is out.
This line was -9.5 last week in the lookahead market, and the early line on Sunday night — before the Bengals played on Monday Night Football — was -8.5.
At -7.5, this line is too low.
Best Line: Bengals -7.5 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Bengals -9.5 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection: Bengals -9.25
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