NFL Week 9 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: Ravens vs. Saints (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet there as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord. Let’s take a closer look at one game I like this week, Ravens vs. Saints.
Week 8 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-8 (-0.72 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 53-44-1 (+4.71 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 22-18
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
NFL Week 9 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: Ravens vs. Saints
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
Check out our Ravens at Saints matchup page.
- Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 7, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome
- TV: ESPN
Ravens at Saints: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Ravens -2.5
- Over/Under: 48
- Moneyline: Ravens -148, Saints +130
Ravens at Saints: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 2.
- Spread: Saints – 53% bets, 53% money
- Over/Under: Under – 76% bets, 96% money
- Moneyline: Saints – 24% bets, 47% money
Ravens at Saints: Injuries
Ravens: Week 8 Injury Report
Since this is a Monday game, the first injury report for it won’t be available until Thursday, after this piece is published.
Here are the Ravens I’m planning to monitor most closely this week.
- TE Mark Andrews (shoulder): Exited Week 8 early
- WR Rashod Bateman (foot): Exited Week 8 early, expected to be out for weeks
- RB Gus Edwards (hamstring): Exited Week 8 early, uncertain to play
- DL Calais Campbell (illness): Missed Week 8
- LB Josh Bynes (quad): Missed Week 8
- G Ben Cleveland (foot): Missed Weeks 5-8
- EDGE Tyus Bowser (Achilles): Activated from IR
- EDGE David Ojabo (Achilles): Activated from IR
Ravens: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Vince Biegel | OLB | IR |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | IR |
| Kyle Fuller | CB | IR |
| Daelin Hayes | OLB | IR |
| Ja’Wuan James | T | IR |
| Charlie Kolar | TE | IR |
| Steven Means | OLB | IR |
| Michael Pierce | NT | IR |
| Josh Ross | ILB | IR |
| Marcus Williams | S | IR |
Saints: Week 8 Injury Report
Again, the first injury report won’t be available until Thursday, after this piece is published.
Here are the Saints I’m planning to monitor most closely.
- WR Michael Thomas (foot): Missed Weeks 4-8
- WR Jarvis Landry (ankle): Missed Weeks 5-8
- CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen): Missed Weeks 6-8
- TE Adam Trautman (ankle): Missed Weeks 7-8
- RB Mark Ingram (knee): Exited Week 8 early, expected to be out for weeks
Saints: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Ethan Greenidge | OL | IR |
| Deonte Harty | WR/RS | IR |
| Albert Huggins | DT | IR |
| D’Marco Jackson | LB | IR |
| Smoke Monday | SAF | IR |
| Trevor Penning | OT | IR |
| Bradley Roby | CB | IR |
| P.J. Williams | CB | IR |
| Dylan Soehner | TE | PUP |
Ravens at Saints: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Ravens ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 4-4 (-4.9% ROI)
- ML: 5-3 (1.4% ROI)
Saints ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-28.2% ROI)
- ML: 3-5 (-38.9% ROI)
Ravens at Saints: Notable Trends
- QB Andy Dalton: 42-31-2 ATS (13.1% ROI) as underdog
- QB Andy Dalton: 3-2 ATS (14.9% ROI) with Saints
Ravens at Saints: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Ravens Offense vs. Saints Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.077 | 5 | -0.012 | 11 | 6 |
| Total SR | 47.0% | 8 | 42.3% | 9 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | 17.5% | 2 | -2.4% | 12 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.072 | 13 | 0.083 | 19 | 6 |
| Dropback SR | 48.1% | 12 | 45.8% | 18 | 6 |
| Pass DVOA | 33.6% | 4 | 2.2% | 11 | 7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.3% | 19 | 7.1% | 19 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | 0.084 | 2 | -0.162 | 1 | -1 |
| Rush SR | 45.5% | 6 | 36.6% | 5 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | 11.7% | 3 | -8.8% | 12 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.31 | 21 | 4.53 | 18 | -3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.9 | 7 | 5.3 | 9 | 2 |
| Points per Game | 26 | 5 | 25 | 28 | 23 |
Saints Offense vs. Ravens Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.023 | 15 | 0.076 | 28 | 13 |
| Total SR | 49.0% | 3 | 47.0% | 27 | 24 |
| Total DVOA | -1.7% | 19 | 2.1% | 17 | -2 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.04 | 17 | 0.109 | 25 | 8 |
| Dropback SR | 50.2% | 5 | 48.4% | 25 | 20 |
| Pass DVOA | -0.9% | 23 | 2.3% | 12 | -11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.1% | 10 | 7.8% | 12 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.003 | 8 | 0.001 | 24 | 16 |
| Rush SR | 47.2% | 3 | 43.8% | 22 | 19 |
| Rush DVOA | 10.8% | 6 | 1.9% | 25 | 19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.97 | 4 | 4.72 | 21 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 5 | 5.7 | 19 | 14 |
| Points per Game | 24.9 | 8 | 22.9 | 20 | 12 |
Ravens at Saints: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Lamar Jackson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.102 | 11 |
| AY/A | 7.1 | 13 |
| QBR | 63.7 | 5 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.4 | 6 |
Career: Lamar Jackson
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: 80.4
2022: Andy Dalton
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.116 | 8 |
| AY/A | 7.3 | 11 |
| QBR | 55.1 | 13 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.7 | 24 |
Career: Andy Dalton
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -5.8
Key Matchup: Saints Rush Offense vs. Ravens Rush Defense
For the Saints, No. 1 WR Michael Thomas (foot) has been out since Week 4. No. 2 WR Jarvis Landry (ankle) has been out since Week 5. No. 1 TE Adam Trautman (ankle), since early in Week 6.
Even so, the Saints have managed 29.6 points over the past five games with backup-turned-starting QB Andy Dalton.
How?
The running game.
The Saints have one of the league’s best rush attacks, and the Ravens are outside the top 20 in run defense.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.003 | 8 | 0.001 | 24 | 16 |
| Rush SR | 0.472 | 3 | 0.438 | 22 | 19 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.108 | 6 | 0.019 | 25 | 19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.97 | 4 | 4.72 | 21 | 17 |
They have especially struggled since losing run-stuffing NT Michael Pierce (biceps, IR), who exited Week 3 with an injury after just 11 snaps.
- Weeks 1-2: 36.1% rush SR (No. 10) | -10.3% rush DVOA (No. 17)
- Weeks 3-8: 46.0% rush SR (No. 28) | 5.0% rush DVOA (No. 27)
Even with the Monday addition of LB Roquan Smith (acquired from Bears via trade), the Ravens will likely still struggle against the run.
In the offseason, this number was Saints +0.5, and that’s close to where I think this line should be.
Best Line: Saints +3 (-120, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Saints +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Saints -0.25
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