NFL Week 9 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: Seahawks vs. Cardinals (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet there as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord. Let’s take a closer look at one game I like this week, Seahawks vs. Cardinals.
Week 8 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-8 (-0.72 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 53-44-1 (+4.71 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 22-18
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
NFL Week 9 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Check out our Seahawks at Cardinals matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium
- TV: FOX
Seahawks at Cardinals: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Cardinals -2
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Cardinals -130, Seahawks +110
Seahawks at Cardinals: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 2.
- Spread: Seahawks – 81% bets, 89% money
- Over/Under: Over – 57% bets, 88% money
- Moneyline: Seahawks – 28% bets, 36% money
Seahawks at Cardinals: Injuries
Seahawks: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Marquise Goodwin | WR | Groin | DNP |
| Darrell Taylor | OLB | Groin | DNP |
| Gabe Jackson | G | Hip/knee | LP |
| Penny Hart | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | Hamstring/Ribs | LP |
| DK Metcalf | WR | Knee | LP |
| Austin Blythe | C | Knee | LP |
| Jordyn Brooks | LB | Ankle | LP |
| Ryan Neal | S | Ankle | LP |
| Noah Fant | TE | Hamstring | LP |
Seahawks: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Jamal Adams | SS | IR |
| Isaiah Dunn | CB | IR |
| Darryl Johnson | LB | IR |
| Tyler Ott | LS | IR |
| Rashaad Penny | RB | IR |
| Alton Robinson | LB | IR |
| Tyreke Smith | LB | IR |
| Cody Thompson | WR | IR |
| Tre Brown | CB | PUP |
| Ben Burr-Kirven | LB | PUP |
| Jon Rhattigan | LB | PUP |
Cardinals: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Budda Baker | S | Ankle | DNP |
| Max Garcia | G | Shoulder | DNP |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP |
| D.J. Humphries | OT | Back | DNP |
| Jonathan Ledbetter | DE | Ribs | DNP |
| Christian Matthew | CB | Hamstring | DNP |
| James Conner | RB | Ribs | LP |
| Dennis Gardeck | LB | Ankle | LP |
| Byron Murphy | CB | Back | LP |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | LP |
| Cameron Thomas | LB | Back | LP |
| Josh Jones | OT | Knee | FP |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Marquise Brown | WR | IR |
| Tae Daley | S | IR |
| Marquis Hayes | OL | IR |
| Rashard Lawrence | DT | IR |
| Joshua Miles | OL | IR |
| Justin Pugh | OL | IR |
| Nick Vigil | ILB | IR |
| Jonathan Ward | RB | IR |
| Charles Washington | S | IR |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | IR |
| Darrel Williams | RB | IR |
Seahawks at Cardinals: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Seahawks ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 5-3 (18.9% ROI)
- ML: 5-3 (54.2% ROI)
Cardinals ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-17.5% ROI)
- ML: 4-4 (-4.5% ROI)
Seahawks at Cardinals: Notable Trends
Seahawks Trends
- QB Geno Smith: 24-16-2 ATS (15.4% ROI) for career
- QB Geno Smith: 8-3 ATS (39.8% ROI) for team
- QB Geno Smith: 17-10-2 ATS (20.2% ROI) as underdog
- QB Geno Smith: 6-2 ATS (45.0% ROI) as underdog for team
Cardinals Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 11-17 ATS (16.8% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 9-15 ATS (20.5% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 11-5 ATS (31.9% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Seahawks at Cardinals: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Seahawks Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.063 | 7 | 0.029 | 18 | 11 |
| Total SR | 44.9% | 14 | 50.2% | 30 | 16 |
| Total DVOA | 12.1% | 7 | 3.9% | 19 | 12 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.122 | 8 | 0.117 | 26 | 18 |
| Dropback SR | 51.5% | 3 | 54.1% | 32 | 29 |
| Pass DVOA | 31.0% | 5 | 11.8% | 23 | 18 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.9% | 27 | 5.4% | 27 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | -0.036 | 20 | -0.130 | 5 | -15 |
| Rush SR | 34.1% | 31 | 43.2% | 21 | -10 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.5% | 13 | -9.4% | 11 | -2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.19 | 26 | 4.45 | 15 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 5 | 5.8 | 24 | 19 |
| Points per Game | 26.3 | 4 | 26.3 | 30 | 26 |
Cardinals Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.003 | 20 | 0.042 | 21 | 1 |
| Total SR | 43.3% | 22 | 41.5% | 5 | -17 |
| Total DVOA | -11.8% | 26 | -2.6% | 11 | -15 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.004 | 21 | 0.108 | 24 | 3 |
| Dropback SR | 44.2% | 25 | 44.5% | 10 | -15 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.6% | 27 | 3.2% | 14 | -13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.6% | 13 | 7.9% | 11 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.019 | 14 | -0.055 | 16 | 2 |
| Rush SR | 41.7% | 13 | 37.1% | 6 | -7 |
| Rush DVOA | -10.4% | 23 | -9.5% | 10 | -13 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.05 | 28 | 4.48 | 16 | -12 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 29 | 5.7 | 19 | -10 |
| Points per Game | 22.8 | 15 | 24.9 | 25 | 10 |
Seahawks at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Geno Smith
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.152 | 4 |
| AY/A | 8.2 | 5 |
| QBR | 66.6 | 4 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.1 | 13 |
Career: Geno Smith
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -42.8
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.051 | 21 |
| AY/A | 5.9 | 30 |
| QBR | 48.3 | 18 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.1 | 9 |
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: 64.7
Key Matchup: Seahawks Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense
Going back to last season, when he made three spot starts for the injured Russell Wilson, QB Geno Smith has a top-four 8.6 AY/A and 0.137 composite EPA + CPOE among all passers with multiple starts.
The world is Smith’s kitchen, and he’s cooking. For the season, the Seahawks are top-eight in most pass efficiency metrics, and the Cardinals defense is bottom-10.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | 0.122 | 8 | 0.117 | 26 | 18 |
| Dropback SR | 0.515 | 3 | 0.541 | 32 | 29 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.31 | 5 | 0.118 | 23 | 18 |
It helps that he has a top-10 pass-catching unit anchored by WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who have a massive edge over an outmatched secondary in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.
| Rank | WRs & TEs | Opp Secondary | Secondary Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SEA | ARI | 27 | 17 |
In Week 1, Smith was the No. 32 quarterback in our power rankings. Now, he’s No. 12 — not far behind Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (No. 9).
Given how well Smith has played this year — and how bad the Cardinals secondary has been — it’s hard to see why the Seahawks are underdogs, especially against a divisional opponent they beat 19-9 in Week 6.
This number was +3.5 in the lookahead market, but I still like it at +2.
Best Line: Seahawks +2 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Seahawks +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Seahawks +1
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