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NFL Wild Card Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Monday)

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Let's dive into the Monday marquee NFL matchup to close out Super Wildcard Weekend between the Buccaneers and Eagles. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for Monday Night Football.

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NFL Monday Betting Primer (Super Wildcard Weekend)

Buffalo Bills (-10) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sides:

  • The Bills have won each of their last five games.
  • The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four postseason games.
  • The Steelers are 60% ATS as an underdog. 6-4 overall.
  • Mason Rudolph is 8-4-1 as a starter. 9-3 ATS.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 10-4 as a favorite this season.
  • They have covered just 43% of their games ATS as favorites.
  • Buffalo is 7-1 and 4-4 ATS at home.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 13 games. Woof.

Game Total:

  • The Bills are 3-5 toward the over at home this season, averaging 44 points per game.
  • These teams average 41 points per game.
  • Five of the last 6 Bills' games at home have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Steelers games have gone OVER the total in four of their last five weeks.
  • Seven of the Steelers' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Steelers boast the league's 5th-best red zone defense. Buffalo ranks 17th.
  • The Steelers have been regressing to the mean with a 6-11 O/U record, after starting the season 2-10 toward the under.

Overall:

How the Steelers made the playoffs is beyond me. Mike Tomlin signed a deal with the devil and has his team facing Buffalo as 10-point underdogs in the first round of the wild card round. Unfortunately for them, they will be without their No. 1 defender, T.J. Watt. Among defensive players in the NFL, Watt influences NFL betting lines based on his presence as a pass-rusher and offensive disruptor.

If there's any game this weekend I am fine staying completely away from, it's PIT @ BUF. The Steelers have been covering machines with Mason Rudolph, but we know eventually, the clock will strike midnight, and he will turn back into a pumpkin. But Buffalo has hardly been a confident bet against vastly inferior teams, failing to put away bad teams like the Patriots and Chargers in recent weeks. They beat down the Jets at home, but that's been about it.

The Bills should win, and I just like betting on their futures as my approach. You can get the Bills to win the AFC at +280 on FanDuel. Josh Allen's chaotic style of play makes them capable of beating (and losing) any opponent in the AFC, so that's the way I'd play it with them likely taking care of business in Round 1 of the postseason. They already beat KC on the road, so if that's the next matchup, I like the value of the odds with them hosting the Chiefs if both teams advance to the divisional round.

As for the total, it's an under-spot for me. Buffalo is an under machine at home, while the Steelers have been heavy toward the under on the road.

Five of the last six Bills' games at home have gone UNDER the total points line. Seven of the Steelers' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

The weather also forecasts for less than favorable conditions conducive for passing games and overall scoring. Even after they moved the game to Monday night, the weather still isn’t great. If anything, you’d want to buy low on suppressed player props etc. with most of the lines based on the original weather forecast.

Props:

George Pickens was a complete afterthought last week, receiving zero targets in the wet contest.

This was not a lack of playing time, as he played 81% of the snaps. The defense dictated more short underneath passes, so Pickens didn't get the rock. I'd imagine that won't be the case next week as the Steelers play a more threatening opponent in the first round of the playoffs in a likely negative game script versus Buffalo, who could be down cornerback Rasul Douglas.

Pickens has 45-plus receiving yards in three of Mason Rudolph's four starts this season. He also has 3.5-plus receptions in four of his last six games played.

Josh Allen has been running wild as a mobile QB. He's gone over 10+ carries in three of his last five games.

I like this opportunity to buy the number dip on Stefon Diggs after a solid game in Miami. The Steelers' defense should hardly be feared by WRs, with them allowing 78-plus yards to at least one opposing WR since Week 12. Buffalo might be freezing temperatures, but Diggs could be heating up just at the right time for a Bills playoff run.

Khalil Shakir also has a GREAT matchup versus the Steelers' slot-funnel defense in the playoffs. He's been a stud when targeted, leading the NFL in catch rate (87%) and passer rating generated when targeted (133.6). Davis has caught 58% of the passes thrown his way this season. Shakir is only $3,400 on DraftKings this week. Keep an eye out for his player props once they are released. 2.5 receptions and 34.5 yards are his latest props.

As mentioned before, the weather will play a role in this contest, so be mindful when betting on individual player props with that in mind. Might make sense to hold off till closer to kick-off to get a better number on "overs" while taking unders leading up to game time.

Right now, I still feel comfortable taking the overs on Allen's rushing and Pickens' receptions at plus money.

Rudolph's passing attempts at 27.5 seem like easy money, given he has not attempted more than 27 passes in any contest this season. Hardly think the Steelers want to establish the pass this weekend. Makes sense to play it along with Najee Harris over 15.5 rushing attempts. Gone for 19-plus in 3 straight games.

The same goes for Jaylen Warren. Bad weather in a potential negative game script means dump-off passes to the 3rd-down back. Warren has 4-plus catches in five straight games.

My Picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Sides:

  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
  • The Buccaneers have won each of their last three games as underdogs.
  • Tampa Bay is 73% ATS as an underdog this season. 5-6 overall.
  • But they have played much worse at home. 4-4 overall. 3-5 ATS
  • The Eagles are 33% ATS as a favorite this season.
  • The Eagles are 3-8-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 or more points. They have also covered just 3 spreads when they have allowed 20 points on defense.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged 20.5 points per game this season (under 20 per game at home).
  • When these teams first met back in Week 3, the Eagles won 25 to 11 playing at Tampa Bay.
  • Philly was a six-point road favorite. They punted once. The Buccaneers didn't find the end zone until the 4th quarter down 25-3 in the box score.
  • The Eagles outgained the Buccaneers 472 yards to 174 yards on offense. Philly rushed for over 200 yards on the ground

Game Total:

  • The Buccaneers are 2-6 toward the game total at home this season, averaging under 35 points per game.
  • The Eagles are 7-1 toward the over at home this season. On the road? 2-7 toward the over.
  • Their offense has averaged just 17.6 points per game at home this season (27th). Only thrice have they scored 21 or more points at home this season.
  • Tampa Bay is also 11-6 toward the under this season overall.
  • The Bucs are 4-3 toward the over in their last 7 games.
  • Each of the Eagles’ last six games in January has gone UNDER the total points line. 11 of the Eagles' last 12 games in January have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • When these teams first met, the Eagles won 25 to 11 in Tampa Bay (36-point total).
  • The Buccaneers boast the No. 1 red-zone defense in the NFL at home (33%). Allowing just 17.1 points per game at home this season.

Overall:

Among all the games this weekend, the Eagles-Buccaneers matchup must be the most polarizing. Both teams backdoored their way into playoff appearances and are hardly "firing on all cylinders." Both QBs are battling through injuries. And the trends heavily back the Buccaneers as home underdogs ATS, given how pitiful the Eagles have been ATS against all opponents. But that's all baked into the suppressed line, given that the Eagles are a superior team overall.

In the Massey-Peabody NFL 2023 Power Rankings, the Eagles are 7th versus the Buccaneers’ 14th overall ranking. My FantasyPros Power Rankings have the Eagles 6th and the Buccaneers 15th.

It was also no contest when these teams played earlier in the season.

And if the Buccaneers’ offense - which has struggled to score at home - doesn't put up 20 or more points, the Eagles will eventually wear them out offensively. I'll take Philly in a get-right spot versus a team that could have easily lost to the Panthers last week. Their 9-0 victory over the 2-15 Panthers was a STRUGGLE. Twice they got bailed out on TDs. Third-string RB Raheem Blackshear scored a 28-yard TD that came back due to holding. WR D.J. Chark fumbled into the end zone and reversed a 43-yard TD score.

I got Eagles -2.5 on Sunday night, but feel there's still value in the bet at Eagles -3. But I love the under on this game more than anything else.

The O/U record for the Buccaneers' home games combined with Eagles road games: 4-13. Bet the under with two struggling teams going head-to-head on Monday Night Football in Prime Time.

Props:

Mike Evans was the target leader in Week 18 with 8 looks but he only caught 3 passes for 22 yards. However, he had a massive drop on what could have been a huge passing play. He will get a chance for redemption versus the Eagles in the playoffs. 117 air yards last week foreshadows him as a massive buy-low target. Philly has allowed the second-most receiving yards to WRs this season.

Taking the over on Evans' 67.5 receiving yards prop this week. Evans has 70-plus yards in four of his last 7 games played.

Same with going more than with Chris Godwin, based on how bad the Eagles' defense is at defending the slot (most fantasy points allowed). More than 54.5 receiving yards is too easy. 51 or more yards in 5 straight games with target totals of 11, 12, 11, 5, and 8.

The matchup is divine, but the Eagles have shown me no faith to back them in this spot in their passing game. I can't help but love the under on Jalen Hurts' passing yards prop at 220.5 passing yards. He's dealing with a finger injury that could impact his throwing ability.

Hurts has thrown for fewer than 237.5 yards in 7 of his last 9 games. WOOF. We also saw the Eagles run all over Tampa Bay when they last played. Even though, the Buccaneers’ defense is allowing the 4th-most receiving yards per game to WRs in 2023. The Bucs are also allowing the 3rd-most yards and 2nd-most receptions per game to tight ends.

5 of the last 10 teams the Eagles have faced have gone for 299-plus passing yards. We should see a pass-heavy script from the Buccaneers against the Eagles' horrible secondary that is allowing the 5th-most passing yards per game to QBs. Baker Mayfield has thrown for 236.5 or more passing yards in three of his last five games overall and in four of his last five games at home.

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Prop Bet Analyzer: View advanced analysis and bet ratings for every prop bet >>


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