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NFL Wild Card Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Saturday)

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Let's dive into the two-game Saturday marquee NFL slate for Week 18. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend Saturday football between the Houston Texans vs the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs vs the Miami Dolphins.

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Saturday Football Betting Primer

Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns (-2)

Sides:

  • The Browns have won each of their last eight games as favorites.
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the last four games between the Browns and Texans.
  • Cleveland is 3-5 on the road this season. Houston is 6-3 at home.
  • The Browns are 80% ATS as a favorite. 9-1 overall.
  • The Texans are 67% ATS as an underdog. 5-4 overall. They went 1-1 overall and straight up as an underdog without C.J. Stroud during his two-game absence.
  • Seven of their last eight wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Overall, Houston is 9-6 versus the spread over their last 15 games.
  • The Browns are 3-1-1 ATS with Joe Flacco as their starter. 1-1 ATS on the road.

Game Total:

  • Each of the Browns’ last nine road games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Texans average 45 points per game at home this season, with a 3-6 record toward the under.
  • These teams average 44 points per game.
  • Houston's defense ranks 5th best on 3rd downs, while the Browns rank 1st. Both defenses should be able to force 3 and outs to some extent.
  • Houston is average on the 3rd downs offensively, while the Browns have been well below average even with Flacco at QB.
  • But the Browns' weakness is in the red zone. Dead last in red-zone scoring allowed this season. Houston ranks 12th best in the red zone.
  • The Texans have gone under in 11 of their last 15 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • In Flacco's five starts, the Browns have averaged 28.6 points per game, scoring at least 19 points in each contest.

Overall:

Although most of the trends suggest that this is a spot to back the Cleveland Browns, getting C.J. Stroud at home with 2.5 points is too good to pass on. Again, this Browns defense is not the same juggernaut unit when they play outside of Ohio. They have three road wins all season. The latest came against the Texans (who opened as 2.5-point favorites back in Week 16) when Stroud did not play. Before he was ruled out, Stroud's Texans were home favorites by 2.5 points. Same scenario this week. Except with Stroud, the line is the same with the Browns' 2-point favorites as it was the last time they played. This was the adjusted line when it was announced Stroud would miss Week 16.

Flacco lost his only other road game start 19-36 to the Rams. The two other Browns' road wins this season? At Baltimore and Indianapolis in closely contested high-scoring games that exceeded 60 points.

For what it's worth, the Texans have also been solid playing teams twice this season, going 2-1 ATS and overall in their second game against their AFC South opponents. They swept Tennessee and split with both Indy/Jacksonville.

DeMeco Ryans and company will be ready for Flacco the second time around.

I think you can see where I am leaning regarding the total. Over. Over. Over.

As alluded to earlier, the Browns are an OVER machine on the road. And the Texans are vastly overdue for regression when it comes to their 6-11 O/U record. Especially at home in a dome. Given the line is right around the team's scoring averages on the year, I think there's enough value to back the over given the Xs and Os of the particular matchup where each offense can find success.

For longshot odds, I also like the Texans to win the AFC. I think Stroud can beat the Browns. And although that would put them on the road vs Baltimore, it’s not unfamiliar territory. If Stroud gets on a roll, this time Houston will be a tough out.

Props:

The tough matchup on the ground for the Browns - aside from what Jonathan Taylor did to the Texans last week - should not be ignored. The Texans have allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs, allowing under 3.4 yards per carry - second best in the NFL behind only the New England Patriots.

The Browns have been one of the worst rushing offenses with Joe Flacco at QB.

In Weeks 13-17, they ranked +8% pass rate over expectation. Second in pass play rate on early downs. Their rushing EPA ranks 5th-worst.

Take the under on Jerome Ford's 42.5 rushing yards. Still in a committee that has three RBs being used between Ford, Kareem Hunt, and Pierre Strong. Ford has also gone UNDER 43.5 yards in more than half of his games with Flacco at QB. He was also held to just 25 yards the last time he faced the Texans in Week 16. Since Week 8, just three RBs have surpassed their rushing totals against Houston.

It's Devin Singletary's world, and we are just living in it. Well, it's his backfield in Houston, at least. Singletary totaled 23 carries for 64 yards and one TD against the Colts, while Dameon Pierce didn't log a single snap on offense. Singletary played 88% of the snaps and had three carries inside the 10-yard line.

I like the OVER on Singletary's 65.5 rushing yards prop on PrizePicks this week. The Browns' defense has been gashed on the road this season, allowing over 120 rushing yards per game. Although Singletary was held to just 44 yards the last time these teams played, he only had nine carries in a total blow-out loss. There was no C.J. Stroud in that game, either. Trust that in a tighter game, Singletary continues to feast as a rusher.

Same for Nico Collins in the passing game. His receiving yards line is set at 74.5 yards on PrizePicks. He hit the over on the first play against the Colts. Gone over in C.J. Stroud's last four games played. And at home this season with Stroud, Collins is averaging over 100 yards at 111 receiving yards per game. Weeks 9-17, Collins (excluding Week 14 when Collins left with an injury), the Texans WR averaged 18.1 fantasy points per game (second) and 16.9 expected fantasy points per game (9th).

How high is too high to rank Collins in 2024 fantasy football?

This should be another big game for David Njoku. The Texans are allowing the 5th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season (57.4).

The Browns' tight end has been FULLY unlocked with Flacco as his QB. In Flacco's five starts, Njoku has a 22% target share averaging nine targets per game and 17.1 expected points per game in half-point scoring. But even before Flacco got there, Njoku had been HEATING up. Weeks 7-17, Njoku ranked first in expected fantasy points per game at 16.8 among all tight ends.

Against Houston back in Week 16, Njoku went for six catches and 44 yards on nine targets. Love the MORE THAN on Njoku's 56.5 receiving yards prop.

Given that the Browns are also a suffocating defense versus tight ends - fewest receiving yards allowed per game to tight ends - the targets should concentrate around Collins as the No. 1 threat. Therefore, best to opt for the under on Dalton Schultz's line set at 40.5 receiving yards. Gone under in back-to-back games. Also, there's a chance that the Texans get some of their injured WRs back in the lineup, making it more difficult to command targets. Note that Schultz only had one catch in the entire first half of last week's game, even with all the Texans WRs missing time.

My Picks:

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

Sides:

  • The Dolphins have lost each of their last seven road games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Miami is 20% ATS as an underdog. 1-4 overall.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Miami has not won a game this season while trailing at halftime. Chiefs have won 80% of their games when leading at halftime.
  • KC is 2-4 ATS with back-to-back covers the last two weeks.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in eight of the Chiefs' last 10 games.
  • The Chiefs have been overrated ATS at home, going 1-3 ATS in their last four home games (1-3 straight up).
  • KC is 47% ATS as the favorite this season.

Game Total:

  • The Chiefs are 7-1 toward the under at home this season, averaging under 40 points per game.
  • Each of the Chiefs’ last six games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Miami's defense has played better than how they started the season, allowing fewer than 300 yards per game in six of their last 10 games. 5-5 toward the O/U. But they are dealing with a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
  • Seven of the Dolphins' last nine games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Chiefs' last three games have gone UNDER the total (4 of the last 5).

Overall:

It's the same old song and dance with the Dolphins. They beat bad teams but cannot beat good teams.

Furthermore, the Dolphins' home/road splits are jarring. Against teams with a winning record on the road, Miami is 0-4.

And although the Chiefs have been far from the usual top AFC Power this year, it's still Andy Reid after a pseudo-bye-week. Ultimately, I think the Chiefs win at home against a warm-weather team, but I am staying far away from the spread, with the line hovering now at -4.5 after opening at -3.5. The Chiefs aren't good enough to confidently back as a FG-plus winner, despite the Dolphins' many flaws.

The optimal way to approach the game is to just SLAM the under. I took it the under at 43.5 and at 44. Shop for the best lines. There might be a few 44.5 out there in the wild.

Props:

With the loss to the Bills on Sunday night, the Dolphins will head to KC in projected freezing temperatures in the Wild Card Round.

And although that seems to project better for the Chiefs ground attack, Miami is not a defense you can run the ball on easily. One of the few props we hit last week was the UNDER on James Cook against Miami's stout run defense. Rinse and repeat here with Isiah Pacheco's rushing yards prop set at 66.5 yards.

Dolphins are allowing the 5th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs at 77 yards. Under 3.9 yards per carry faced with the No.1 lowest explosive rush rate on defense.

Since the Dolphins' Week 10 bye week, they have allowed two teams' RBs to rush for more than 40 yards against them. Seven of the last 10 RBs to face Miami have gone UNDER their rushing projection. Pacheco rushed for 66 yards when these teams first played earlier this season. He's also gone over 66.5 yards only thrice in his last 10 games played.

I am "fishing" for unders this game for player props. The game total under I love, and that means we should look to bet passing yardage numbers.

Both QBs threw for fewer than 200 passing yards when these teams met back overseas. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 260.5 passing yards in three of his last four home games.

Tua Tagovailoa has tossed for fewer than 256.5 yards in four of his last five games. Also gone under in four of his last five road games. Nine of the last seven QBs the Chiefs have faced have gone UNDER their projected passing yards total.

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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