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NFL Wild Card Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Sunday)

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Let's dive into NFL matchups for Super Wild Card Weekend. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.

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NFL Sunday Betting Primer: Super Wild Card Weekend

Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Green Bay Packers

Sides:

  • The Cowboys have won each of their last 16 home games.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs against the Cowboys.
  • The Underdogs have won six of the Packers' last eight games.
  • The favorites have won each of the Cowboys' last 14 games.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 15 of the Cowboys' last 18 games.
  • The Packers are also 8-2 when they allow fewer than 23 points on defense. 7-3 ATS.
  • Green Bay is 2-5 ATS when they allow more than 23 points.
  • Dallas has scored 30 points at home in all but one of their games in Big D this season (last week).
  • The Packers have scored first in each of their last four road games.
  • Dallas is 77% ATS as a favorite. 12-1 overall.

Game Total:

  • Dallas is 5-3 toward the over at home this season, averaging 53.3 points per game
  • Seven of the Packers’ last eight postseason games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Packers' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line. Their defense has been horrible.
  • GB has allowed 24-plus points in three of their last five games.
  • Eight of the Cowboys' last 13 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 7 of 11 games through the air.
  • Dallas had played 11 straight games with 300-plus yards on offense and scored 20-plus points in all games except for their back-to-back road losses (both unders).

Overall:

Although the spotlight in this game is on the two QBs, the Packers’ chances of winning/covering the spread are more about their defense. When GB's defense struggles, they lose. Green Bay is 2-5 ATS when they allow more than 23 points. Dallas is 9-2 ATS when they score 23 or more points.

The Packers' defense is their biggest weakness, and I fully expect Dallas to carve them up. When these teams met last season, the game combined for 59 points in Green Bay (OT). Dallas posted 400-plus yards of offense.

As an average team, the Packers will be simply outclassed by a team that plays like an elite unit at home. But I'll admit I hate laying the 7 with with Dallas, even at home. Much prefer betting the over on the game total.

I bet the over earlier in the week at 48, but I feel like the move is still toward the over, even at 50.5. All the trends point toward the over, as Green Bay's offense has enough weaponry to keep pace enough to get this game over the total.

As for futures, I also like dabbling in the Cowboys to win the NFC at +340 on FanDuel. I expect them to beat Green Bay, and that will give them another home game against a team that they have already beaten this season, between PHI, LAR, or DET.

Props:

Six of the last nine RBs the Packers have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

Tony Pollard had 17 carries for 70 yards (4.1 average), one touchdown (5 red-zone touches), longest run of 12 yards on a 57% snap share. Led the backfield with 10 carries in the first half to Rico Dowdle's solo carry.

Dallas will host Green Bay in the first round of the playoffs. The Packers' defense has held up in back-to-back weeks against the Vikings/Bears. Dallas is a different animal. I think they might run wild against them.

Therefore, I am taking MORE than Pollard's 61.5 rushing yards prop. Went over last week and went for 100-plus yards last season against the Packers’ defense.

Dallas is a tough place for the Packers to have to win a road game, but it won't be for a lack of offensive firepower that GB falls short of the big upset.

Ergo, HAMMER the MORE THAN on Jordan Love's passing yards prop this week at 252.5 passing yards. Gone for 255-plus yards in 7 of his last 9 games played. And in every game played in Dallas this season, the opposing offense has totaled at least 248 passing yards.

My Picks:

Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sides:

  • The Rams have won each of their last six games against NFC opponents.
  • The Lions have scored first in each of their last four games.
  • The Lions have won the first half in 14 of their last 15 games as favorites.
  • The Lions are 11-3 as favorites. 71% ATS.
  • The Detroit Lions are 7-4 ATS over their last 11 games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Rams are now 9-6-2 ATS this season.
  • The Rams main starters are 1-6 as underdogs. 43% ATS.
  • The favorites have won nine of the Rams' last 10 games.
  • Five of the Rams' last six games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.

Game Total:

  • Ford Field is home to a 6-2 O/U record, where teams have averaged 52.1 points per game.
  • Each of the Lions’ last four home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Lions' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • In the Lions' last 17 home games, the average total has been 55 points. 82% (14/17) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • The Rams defense isn't great. Only 4x this season, the defense has allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
  • Only Seattle, Arizona, and Washington failed to crack 300 yards. Even the 49ers backups hit 300 yards last week.
  • Against offenses not named the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season.
  • The Rams are 6-6 toward the O/U in their last 12 games.

Overall:

The Matthew Stafford-led Rams have an awful ATS record when they have been underdogs. Conversely, the Lions have been one of the best teams ATS all season, especially when they have been favored at home. Given how the favorites have won the Rams' last nine games - aside from last week when it was a matchup between two backup teams - I am fully on board with the Lions winning their first playoff game since 1991. They lost eight straight playoff appearances (seven of which were on the road).

As for the spread, the line is hovering between DET -3/-3.5. I think there's too much inflation on the side of the Rams with Sean McVay vs Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit in the playoffs as a narrative that bettors are considering. But when we just look at these teams from top-to-bottom, it's no contest, in my opinion, that the Lions are the superior team.

Full transparency that I have a Lions' Super Bowl ticket in my repertoire, so I've already hedged with a Rams +3.5. But with nothing else at stake, I'd more than happily back the Lions -3.

As for the total? You know my pick. Ford Field is the Coors Field of the NFL. Let's ride.

Props:

Jared Goff has at least 236 passing yards in all his home games played this season.

The Lions have allowed the most passing yards to QBs over the last five weeks (nearly 320 passing yards/game). They also rank LAST in yards to WRs in their last five games, allowing 228 yards per game to opposing wideouts.

Smells like a Puka Nacua OVER spot at 78.5 receiving yards. As a full-time player, he has gone over this in four of his last five games played, surpassing 80 yards in each contest. However, I will not be as bullish on his older teammate, Cooper Kupp. Only once all season has Nacua and Kupp both gone over their receiving yards prop the same week. Three of Cooper Kupp’s 40 games with 70-plus receiving yards have been accompanied by down Nacua games. The future is now, Kupp. And his name is Puka Nacua.

The Rams are also the 3rd-worst defense against slot WRs and are equally bleeding points to WRs.

From Weeks 14-17, the Rams have allowed the most fantasy points per game to WRs. (Lions are second). They flip-flop 1 and 2 in terms of allowing the most yardage.

Amon-Ra St. Brown. Come on down. He's gone for 95 or more receiving yards in 6 of his 7 games played at home this season. No fewer than 77 receiving yards in any home game this season. He also has 90-plus receiving yards in 3 straight games.

It's easy to envision how the Rams attack the Lions defense. Through Matthew Stafford's arm.

Because the Lions' defense is ELITE versus the run. They have not allowed RB to surpass 70 yards against them ALL SEASON. Fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs this season (60.5).

The Rams' defense ranks 2nd in fewest rushing yards allowed per game and No. 2 in fewest receiving yards per game to RBs.

Two RBs they have faced have gone over 30 receiving yards all season.

The Rams’ defense also has not allowed an RB to surpass 70 rushing yards since their Week 10 bye week. Only 1 RB they have faced since Week 6 has gone for 65 rushing yards or more.

Take the under on David Montgomery's 54.5 rushing yards prop. His rushing attempts and overall touches have dropped in three straight games as the teams rely more on rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.

The way that these defenses are beaten forecasts for a game that is heavy on passing yards and receiving numbers.

The highest +EV bet is on Lions WR Jameson Williams to go over his receiving yards prop set at 37.5 yards. Dan Campbell expects him to play after they missed him last week. He will be needed with tight end Sam LaPorta likely out. He's gone over 40 yards in three straight games.

My Picks

Buffalo Bills (-10) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

*Editor’s Note: This game was moved to Monday at 4:30pm ET due to the snow forecast in Buffalo*

Sides:

  • The Bills have won each of their last five games.
  • The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four postseason games.
  • The Steelers are 60% ATS as an underdog. 6-4 overall.
  • Mason Rudolph is 8-4-1 as a starter. 9-3 ATS.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 10-4 as a favorite this season.
  • They have covered just 43% of their games ATS as favorites.
  • Buffalo is 7-1 and 4-4 ATS at home.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 13 games. Woof.

Game Total:

  • The Bills are 3-5 toward the over at home this season, averaging 44 points per game.
  • These teams average 41 points per game.
  • Five of the last 6 Bills' games at home have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Steelers games have gone OVER the total in four of their last five weeks.
  • Seven of the Steelers' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Steelers boast the league's 5th-best red zone defense. Buffalo ranks 17th.
  • The Steelers have been regressing to the mean with a 6-11 O/U record, after starting the season 2-10 toward the under.

Overall:

How the Steelers made the playoffs is beyond me. Mike Tomlin signed a deal with the devil and has his team facing Buffalo as 10-point underdogs in the first round of the wild card round. Unfortunately for them, they will be without their No. 1 defender, T.J. Watt. Among defensive players in the NFL, Watt influences NFL betting lines based on his presence as a pass-rusher and offensive disruptor.

If there's any game this weekend I am fine staying completely away from, it's PIT @ BUF. The Steelers have been covering machines with Mason Rudolph, but we know eventually, the clock will strike midnight, and he will turn back into a pumpkin. But Buffalo has hardly been a confident bet against vastly inferior teams, failing to put away bad teams like the Patriots and Chargers in recent weeks. They beat down the Jets at home, but that's been about it.

The Bills should win, and I just like betting on their futures as my approach. You can get the Bills to win the AFC at +280 on FanDuel. Josh Allen's chaotic style of play makes them capable of beating (and losing) any opponent in the AFC, so that's the way I'd play it with them likely taking care of business in Round 1 of the postseason. They already beat KC on the road, so if that's the next matchup, I like the value of the odds with them hosting the Chiefs if both teams advance to the divisional round.

As for the total, it's an under-spot for me. Buffalo is an under machine at home, while the Steelers have been heavy toward the under on the road.

Five of the last six Bills' games at home have gone UNDER the total points line. Seven of the Steelers' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line. The weather also forecasts for less than favorable conditions (cold/windy) conducive for passing games and overall scoring.

Props:

George Pickens was a complete afterthought last week, receiving zero targets in the wet contest.

This was not a lack of playing time, as he played 81% of the snaps. The defense dictated more short underneath passes, so Pickens didn't get the rock. I'd imagine that won't be the case next week as the Steelers play a more threatening opponent in the first round of the playoffs in a likely negative game script versus Buffalo, who could be down cornerback Rasul Douglas.

Pickens has 45-plus receiving yards in three of Mason Rudolph's four starts this season. He also has 3.5-plus receptions in four of his last six games played.

Josh Allen has been running wild as a mobile QB. He's gone over 8.5 carries in four of his last six games.

I like this opportunity to buy the number dip on Stefon Diggs after a solid game in Miami. The Steelers' defense should hardly be feared by WRs, with them allowing 78-plus yards to at least one opposing WR since Week 12. Buffalo might be freezing temperatures, but Diggs could be heating up just at the right time for a Bills playoff run.

Khalil Shakir also has a GREAT matchup versus the Steelers' slot-funnel defense in the playoffs. He's been a stud when targeted, leading the NFL in catch rate (87%) and passer rating generated when targeted (133.6). Davis has caught 58% of the passes thrown his way this season. Shakir is only $3,400 on DraftKings this week. Keep an eye out for his player props once they are released.

As mentioned before, the weather will play a role in this contest, so be mindful when betting on individual player props with that in mind. Might make sense to hold off till closer to kick-off to get a better number on "overs" while taking unders leading up to game time.

Right now, I still feel comfortable taking the overs on Allen's rushing and Pickens' receptions at plus money.

Rudolph's passing attempts at 27.5 seem like easy money, given he has not attempted more than 27 passes in any contest this season. Hardly think the Steelers want to establish the pass in this game. Makes sense to play it along with Najee Harris over 16.5 rushing attempts. Gone for 19-plus in 3 straight games.

The same goes for Jaylen Warren. Bad weather in a potential negative game script means dump-off passes to the 3rd-down back. Warren has 4-plus catches in five straight games.

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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